Sam Houston and Missouri State meet in a Tuesday night Conference USA showdown, and the road team is offering some sneaky value.
My Sam Houston vs. Missouri State prediction backs the Bearkats to keep this one close in Week 9.
Check out my latest college football picks ahead of Tuesday's 8 p.m. ET kickoff on ESPN2.
TOP PICK
Who will win Sam Houston vs Missouri State: Sam Houston +6.5
Sam Houston is one of the most one-dimensional teams in college football, but it's the side to back in this mid-week Conference USA showdown to 53%.
The Bearkats rank dead-last in rushing yards per game and rely heavily on their passing attack. They managed just 11 rushing yards in a six-point loss last week against New Mexico State. ELEVEN. However, they finished with 235 passing yards.
This Sam Houston offense draws a Missouri State defense that is allowing nearly 40 points and 470 yards per game. The Bears are giving up 274 passing yards per game and a ton of chunk plays, allowing 8.0 yards per pass attempt. Missouri State has allowed the fifth-most explosive plays in the conference.
Missouri State runs a similar offense, ranking 52nd in pass attempts per game while running the ball the 11th-fewest times in the country. The Bears will face a Bearkats defense that ranks eighth in passing yards allowed and ninth in yards per pass attempt.
I like Sam Houston +6.5, but consider waiting for the line to move to +7.
COVERS INTEL: Missouri State has been a big-play machine for opposing offenses, allowing the fifth-most explosive plays in Conference USA with 49 surrendered this season.
Sam Houston vs Missouri State Over/Under pick: Over 49.5
Although Sam Houston has struggled to find the end zone, taking on this Missouri State defense should be a breath of fresh air. Through three C-USA games, the Bears are surrendering 38.6 points per game. Last week, this defense gave up 61 points to Delaware.
Sam Houston's ground attack should finally be able to open up the offense. Missouri State is allowing opposing teams to rush for 195.5 yards per game, giving the Bearkats an opportunity to establish the run and create more scoring chances.
On the other side, Sam Houston's defense is allowing 27 points per game through three conference games. Missouri State's ability to run the ball should help open up its offense, too, especially against a defense allowing more than 213 rushing yards per game this season.
Points should not be at a premium in this one, so play the total to 51.
Sam Houston vs Missouri State combo
The Bearkats' passing attack matches up well against a Missouri State defense allowing nearly 40 points and 470 yards per game. With both teams capable of generating explosive plays, I like Sam Houston to keep this competitive while contributing to a high-scoring game.
Sam Houston vs Missouri State combo
- Sam Houston +5.5
- Over 49.5
- 1H Over 27.5
- 2026 picks: 68-48-5, +20.5 units
Sam Houston vs Missouri State odds
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Spread: Sam Houston +5.5 | Missouri State -5.5
- Over/Under: Over 49.5 (50%) | Under 49.5 (51%)
- Moneyline: Sam Houston 34% | Missouri State 66%
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Sam Houston vs Missouri State weather
Temperatures in Springfield, Missouri, will remain in the low 60s throughout the game. Winds will not be a factor, with speeds expected to reach only 6-7 mph.
Check out our college football weather page for up-to-date info on every matchup.
Sam Houston vs Missouri State trend to know
Over is 4-1 in the Bears' last five home games. Find more college football betting trends for Sam Houston vs. Missouri State.
How to watch Sam Houston vs Missouri State
| Location | Robert W. Plaster Stadium, Springfield, MO |
| Date | Tuesday, Oct. 27, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 8 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN2 |
Sam Houston vs Missouri State latest injuries
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