The Toronto Maple Leafs are road favorites over the Calgary Flames ahead of their 8:30 p.m. ET puck drop at the Scotiabank Saddledome on Monday, Oct. 26.
My favorite Maple Leafs vs. Flames prediction and NHL picks call for Toronto making it five wins in a row tonight.
TOP PICK
Maple Leafs vs Flames prediction: Maple Leafs moneyline
The Calgary Flames have scored the third-fewest goals per game and five-on-five goals per 60 minutes, and it isn’t surprising given the lack of high-end talent jumping the boards. It’s the reason I'm recommend the Toronto Maple Leafs moneyline up to 62%.
While Calgary has won three straight, the Flames have only scored four goals while posting a .947 team save percentage at 5-on-5.
On the opposite bench, the Maple Leafs have led for an average of 32:41 per game during their own four-game winning streak, and they’ve scored 13 times with a far more sustainable .929 SV% at 5-on-5.
Add Toronto ranking fifth in power-play percentage and leading the NHL in penalty-kill percentage, and the Maple Leafs enter as the superior team in all facets.
COVERS INTEL: The Maple Leafs sport a seventh-ranked 0.76 goal differential per 60 minutes while the Flames rank 30th with a -1.6 mark.
Maple Leafs vs Flames combo
The Toronto puck line paired with the Under boosts the return on this combo. As highlighted, the Flames have struggled offensively all season, and they’re only 2-5 to the Over with a 6.5 total.
Toronto has also dropped from 3.54 goals against per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 to just 2.21 during their four-game winning streak.
Turning to Maple Leafs winger Easton Cowan, he’s recorded two or more shots in nine of his past 10 games and 10 of 13 for the year.
Maple Leafs vs Flames combo
- Maple Leafs -1.5
- Under 6.5
- Easton Cowan 2+ shots
Maple Leafs vs Flames player prop: Easton Cowan 2+ shots
It’s been a breakout start for Cowan, and he’s been a consistent source of shots for Toronto, so I recommend this prop up to 56%.
Cowan has also clicked with No. 1 center Auston Matthews, and the duo have been on the ice for a 50.3 CF% and 53.4% shot share at 5-on-5.
Of course, the Flames have also allowed the fifth-most shots per game.
Maple Leafs vs Flames goal scorer: Auston Matthews
This goal prop is in play up to 46% because Matthews paces the Maple Leafs in individual expected goals and high-danger scoring chances while finding the back of the net in eight of 13 games to start the year.
Calgary also has an unsustainably high .962 team save percentage with 8.54 goals saved above expected during its three-game winning streak.
- Top picks: 23-16, +12.42 units
- Combos: 2-14, -7.08 units
Maple Leafs vs Flames odds
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Moneyline: Maple Leafs 58% | Flames 43%
- Over/Under: Over 6.5 (54%) | Under 6.5 (47%)
- Spread: Maple Leafs -1.5 (37%) | Flames +1.5 (64%)
For the full slate of NHL matchups, check out our NHL odds board!
Maple Leafs vs Flames trend
The Maple Leafs have covered the puck line in seven of their last nine games (+5.70 Units / 41% ROI). Find more NHL betting trends.
How to watch Maple Leafs vs Flames
| Location | Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary, AB |
| Date | Monday, Oct. 26, 2026 |
| Puck drop | 8:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN+, Sportsnet+ |
Maple Leafs vs Flames latest injuries
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Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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