It’s shaping up to be a soggy set of NFL Week 13 odds, with rain in the forecast for several outdoor games.
But don’t just throw on the raincoat and blindly bet the Under in your NFL picks for those wet Week 13 matchups.
The Buffalo Bills and Philadelphia Eagles were drenched to the bone last Sunday and finished with 62 points in regulation, which blew the total out of the water before a thrilling overtime finish.
I investigate the extended forecasts for this week’s schedule and highlight how wind, rain, and maybe snow could impact the NFL odds and outcomes.
Los Angeles Chargers at New England Patriots Weather
The extended forecast for Foxborough calls for rain and wind gusts up to 15 mph at Gillette Stadium, which will make it feel like 40 degrees down on the field.
The Bolts come from the climate-controlled environment of SoFi Stadium but have played a series of open-air games already in 2023, winning just one of those outdoor appearances.
Quarterback Justin Herbert doesn’t see too much of a downtick in passing production when venturing outside, however, his accuracy does seem to waver. Herbert has thrown an interception in 65% of games played either in domes/retractable roofs but that INT rate jumps to 74% under the heavens.
The Patriots defense is keeping this New England team together like half a roll of duct tape but isn’t necessarily dangerous. The Pats have just 11 total takeaways with only six coming via interception.
Sunday’s total opened at 39.5 points.
Atlanta Falcons at New York Jets Weather
If you thought this matchup of pop-gun offenses was depressing, imagine sitting in the rain-drenched stands at MetLife Stadium to witness it in person. No thanks.
The forecast for East Rutherford is calling for afternoon rains and 20 mph gusts blowing NNE, a diagonal crosswind blowing corner to corner. Temperatures will sit in the mid-40s.
Eyes roam to Atlanta, as an indoor team playing outside in Week 13. The Falcons haven’t been outside in more than a month and have played only three true outdoor games all season (at Nashville, Tampa Bay, and at Wembley in London).
Bettors should expect plenty of handoffs from both sides, considering the QB situations, and a slippery surface could slow Atlanta down even more, considering this playbook runs to the edge on 46% of its carries — third highest in the NFL.
The slick wet weather could prompt a few fumbles as well, especially with these teams involved. Atlanta and New York are tied for the third most fumbles with 10 apiece heading into Week 13. Those turnovers are drive-killers for two struggling scoring attacks.
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Arizona Cardinals at Pittsburgh Steelers Weather
The forecast for Pittsburgh is calling for rain on Sunday with 16 mph gusts settling down after the first quarter. Game-time temperatures are expected to feel like the high 40s for this 1 p.m. ET start, which is balmy for Pennsylvania at this time of year.
Arizona is another indoor team facing the elements for the first time in a long time, having played the last three games indoors. The Cardinals are 0-4 in outdoor games this season, posting an average of just 10.5 points per game in those contests.
Quarterback Kyler Murray’s career splits don’t indicate the elements mess with his production. He actually has slightly better stats in outdoor venues than in climate-controlled spots. He does, however, face a Pittsburgh defense that has forced 20 takeaways, so the rain won’t help calm that chaos.
The Cardinals run one of the quicker tempos on offense, sitting fourth in seconds per snap, and when they do hand off, Arizona is running for the outside, tied for the third-highest percentage of runs off the end in the league. If the surface inside Acrisure Stadium gets slippery, that could also down the quicker Cards.
Pittsburgh is a 5.5-point favorite after dropping from as high as -6.5 and the Over/Under is at 39.5 points.
Miami Dolphins at Washington Commanders Weather
The climate in Hyattsville matches the motivation of the home team in Week 13. The Washington Commanders, who have lost three in a row, host the high-powered Miami Dolphins on a grey wet day in the DMV this weekend.
The forecast is predicting rain with gusts up to 12 mph for FedExField, where Washington is catching close to double digits as a home dog. Temperatures will be in the mid-50s.
A slick surface could slow down the Commanders’ pass-heavy attack that relies on deeper strikes downfield. Miami, on the other hand, bases its passing on shorter hits and yards after the catch from its speedy weapons. If the natural grass gets slippery, you give the nod to the ball carrier (he knows where he’s going, defenders do not).
Sunday’s total opened at 49.5 and is up to 50 points, as the tallest O/U number on the Week 13 board.
San Francisco 49ers at Philadelphia Eagles Weather
The rematch of the NFC Championship could get a little wet and wild, with rain in the forecast for the San Francisco 49ers at the Philadelphia Eagles.
Not only is there a strong chance of rain throughout this late-afternoon kickoff, but wind gusts are expected to hit 21 mph blowing north in a diagonal crosswind from corner to corner at Lincoln Financial Field. Game-time temperatures will drop below 40 degrees in the second half.
My biggest concern is field integrity. The Eagles just played an action-packed shootout with Buffalo in the Linc last weekend, with heavy rains helping rip up the hybrid “Grassmaster” surface.
You have two teams that can really grind it out on the ground, so hopefully the high-traffic areas hold up. Both San Francisco and Philadelphia attack the edge on the ground, running to the outside at the fifth and seventh highest rate, respectively. That could make bouncing out to that corner trickier if things get slick.
The Eagles’ downfield attack could be impacted by the slippery surface and higher winds, which could take the danger element out of this Philadelphia passing playbook. Philly has hit 25 passing plays of 25 yards or more this season. However, QB Jalen Hurts was tempered last week, connecting on 18 of 31 throws for just 200 yards.
The Niners are 2.5-point road faves with the total at 46.5 points.
Kansas City Chiefs at Green Bay Packers Weather
Bettors need to bundle up for Sunday Night Football. The Kansas City Chiefs come to Lambeau Field, where temperatures will feel like 23 degrees.
As it pertains to rain or snow, there are some snow showers in the area but, as of Tuesday, those are expected to pass before the prime-time kickoff, with a slight chance we see some later in the evening. Winds won’t be a factor.
Both sides are used to playing in the frigid temperatures, so I don’t see the cold climate in Wisconsin being an edge for the Green Bay Packers.
Kansas City is a 6.5-point road favorite with this total sitting at 42.5 points.
Cincinnati Bengals at Jacksonville Jaguars Weather
Week 13 comes to a close in Jacksonville, where rain could show up at points in this matchup with the Cincinnati Bengals.
Different models call for a chance of showers Monday night, with some expecting the rain to stop before the 8:15 p.m. ET kickoff and some saying there’s a sprinkle or two throughout this contest.
Winds won’t be much of a factor with gusts topping out at 13 mph and game-time temperatures will be around 52 degrees, which is actually pretty chilly for Florida.
The Jacksonville Jaguars are 7.5-point home favorites hosting the Jake Browning-led Bengals. The Over/Under is at 38.5 points.
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