Every NFL season brings major change, and just as a few contenders fall off the map, a handful of teams develop into serious threats.
It happens every year. Teams that looked like complete jokes suddenly put everything together thanks to coaching changes, young talent developing faster than expected, or one side of the ball making a massive leap.
Before you dive into the latest NFL odds and make your early NFL picks, here’s my list of the top five NFL teams that could surprise people and emerge as legitimate contenders in 2026.
Best bets for 2026 NFL surprise contenders
| Teams | Best Bet |  |
|---|---|---|
 Dallas Cowboys |
Win NFC East | +200 |
 Indianapolis Colts |
Over 8.5 wins | +120 |
 Cincinnati Bengals |
Win NFC North | +190 |
 New York Giants |
Make playoffs | +285 |
 New Orleans Saints |
Win NFC South | +290 |
Odds as of 5-1.
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Why these NFL teams could surprise in 2026
Dallas Cowboys
Let’s start with everyone’s favorite team, the Dallas Cowboys.
You can make all the jokes you want about Dallas, but there was nothing funny about this offense last season. The Cowboys finished top five in scoring and in yards per play, and there’s little reason to expect that production to disappear.
The real issue was the defense, which completely held this team back. Bringing in Matt Eberflus as defensive coordinator turned into a disaster (who could’ve predicted that?), but Dallas moved quickly to fix it. Christian Parker arrives from Philadelphia to take his spot, and he’ll have plenty of young talent to work with.
Dallas was universally applauded for its draft, especially after focusing heavily on defense. The addition of Caleb Downs could pay off immediately as a Day 1 impact player.
If this defense can simply climb to league average, the Cowboys will be back in the mix this season.
Best bet: To win the NFC East (+200 at FanDuel)
Indianapolis Colts
If you have a short memory, you probably remember the Indianapolis Colts as the team that lost seven straight games to lose the season after bringing Philip Rivers out of retirement, but I remember them as the buzzsaw that opened the year 7-1 with five double-digit victories.
So what changed? Daniel Jones was in the middle of the best season of his career before tearing his Achilles in early December, bringing the momentum to a halt.
The organization clearly believes in what they saw because Jones is back on an extension and reportedly progressing well in his recovery. The expectation is that he’ll be ready for Week 1.
There’s also important context behind that losing streak. Six of those seven losses came against playoff teams, and seven of the Colts’ nine losses overall were decided by one score.
This is a team that was much closer to breaking through than people realize. In 2026, they’ll pick up where they left off before Jones’ injury.
Best bet: Over 8.5 wins (+120 at FanDuel)
Cincinnati Bengals
The Cincinnati Bengals fall into a similar category as Dallas. Offensively, they were one of the best teams in football last season. They scored 30 points or more eight times, but the defense was a disgrace.
The difference with Cincinnati is the desperation level. Zac Taylor and Joe Burrow know the pressure is on. This core reached elite status earlier in the decade, and another disappointing season should result in Taylor being fired… and potentially Burrow looking to bounce to a new team.
That organizational-wide urgency should lead to a meaningful improvement on defense, especially after adding Dexter Lawrence and reinforcing the unit through the draft.
The Bengals also made protecting Joe Burrow a major priority with the offensive line retooled, which could be the key to unlocking another huge offensive season while keeping him healthy.
Best bet: To win the NFC North (+190 at FanDuel)
New York Giants
The New York Giants were a franchise desperately searching for stability. They finally found it with John Harbaugh taking over.
Everything around this team felt toxic last season under Brian Daboll, until he got canned. This year feels like the beginning of a major turnaround, and there are shades of last season’s Patriots here.
No, I’m not predicting a Super Bowl run, but the blueprint is there. They have a promising young quarterback entering his second season, and now pair him with one of the most respected head coaches in football.
The young talent on this roster is also extremely impressive, especially after adding one of the strongest draft classes in 2026. A few of these talented youngsters could cross over to superstar status, with Malik Nabers being at the top of the list.
Everything feels aligned for New York to take a major step forward. Don’t be surprised to see them make some noise playing in one of the league’s most volatile divisions.
Best bet: To make the playoffs (+285 at FanDuel)
New Orleans Saints
Last season started as a mess, but the New Orleans Saints quietly improved as the year went on, winning four of their final five games.
This offense has the potential to explode in 2026.
Travis Etienne arrives from Jacksonville after another 1,000-yard season, while Jordyn Tyson joins Chris Olave to give the Saints what could become one of the NFL’s most lethal receiving duos.
That creates a perfect setup for Tyler Shough to break out. We’ve already seen Kellen Moore orchestrate some of the league’s best offenses during his time as an offensive coordinator, and this roster has the weapons to light up scoreboards.
The Saints also benefit from playing in a division that failed to produce a single winning team last season.
Best bet: Saints to win the NFC South (+290 at FanDuel)
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