NFL survivor pools have long been a popular content for football fans, but what if you took a survivor pool... and made it for touchdowns?
Well, we've got the answer, as we run our first Covers NFL expert survivor pool!
Eight of our brightest football minds, drafting one player each week to find paydirt, with true glory (and maybe more) on the line.
Week 2 saw four of our eight experts correctly predict a TD, avoiding a strike. Follow along with our team's selections this week — and tail the NFL TD picks you also think will deliver!
Covers NFL Touchdown Survivor rules
- Random draft order each week for player selection (two analysts cannot have the same player in the same week).
- Each analyst chooses one player. Once he's selected, they cannot select him again this year.
- If your pick is correct: Gold star. If your pick is wrong: You get a strike.
- Three strikes... and you're out of the competition.
Covers NFL TD Survivor Picks: Week 3
| Draft No. | Expert Pick |  Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jason Logan Kenneth Walker III |
65% |
| 2 | Josh Inglis Christian McCaffrey |
70% |
| 3 | Joe Osborne  Derrick Henry |
65% |
| 4 | Dustin Saracini Jahmyr Gibbs |
71% |
| 5 | Chris VasileAmon-Ra St. Brown |
51% |
| 6 | Jon Metler Chris Olave |
38% |
| 7 | Neil Parker Tee Higgins |
34% |
| 8 | Rob Paul Jaxon Smith-Njigba |
49% |
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Jason Logan's TD play: Kenneth Walker III 65%
Week 3 draft spot: No. 1
Kenneth Walker had two TDs in his Chiefs debut and should have had more vs. Indy, if not for a botched spot and a hold. The Dolphins don’t offer much of a speed bump, sitting 29th in RZ defense and allowing five TDs to running backs... already.
Josh Inglis' TD play: Christian McCaffrey 70%
Week 3 draft spot: No. 2
After a breezy Derrick Henry TD last week, I get the second-most probable TD on the board, per implied pricing.
I'll take Christian McCaffrey in the home opener and fresh off a three-quarter game vs. the Dolphins, where he barely broke a sweat — and still had two TDs.
Joe Osborne's TD play: Derrick Henry 65%
Week 3 draft spot: No. 3
Let's keep it simple (again) and look to survive the week unscathed (again).
Ravens vs. Cowboys has the highest total of the week, and Derrick Henry (easily the biggest favorite to find the end zone in the game) is coming off a lighter workload in Week 2. Dallas is also near the bottom of the league at 5.0 yards allowed per rush, and they haven't faced an RB with even half of Henry's talent.
Dustin Saracini's TD play: Jahmyr Gibbs 71%
Week 3 draft spot: No. 4
I love the type of volume I'm seeing from him in the red zone: Jahmyr Gibbs has 11 attempts and two touchdowns from inside the 20, tied for most in the league (with Henry).
The Jets' D has been stingy, but Gibbs won't be denied at home.
Chris Vasile's TD play: Amon-Ra St. Brown 51%
Week 3 draft spot: No. 5
It seems Dustin picked the wrong Lion!
I’m going back to the WR well with Amon-Ra St. Brown, who has four TDs (on 27 targets) through two games, and faces the Jets indoors — with Detroit laying 6.5 in a 47.5 total.
New York’s defensive numbers are elite, but it's been built against Tennessee and Green Bay. Now the Jets get a rested Lions offense coming off a 10-day break. I’ll bet on Goff and his No. 1 target being the first real stress test.
Jon Metler's TD play: Chris Olave 38%
Week 3 draft spot: No. 6
Chris Olave has 23 targets and 268 receiving yards through his first two games. Tyler Shough is leading the NFL in passing yards, and his matchup is a home game against the Las Vegas Raiders.
Everyone is rushing to take running backs in this contest; this feels like a spot where I can steal a green checkmark on a wide receiver.
Neil Parker's TD play: Tee Higgins 34%
Week 3 draft spot: No. 7
There is a ~1.6% chance of drawing the No. 7 pick in back-to-back weeks.
So, I’m taking Bengals wideout Tee Higgins because he has a 100% chance of scoring in Week 3.
After scoring double-digit TDs in consecutive seasons, Cincy hasn’t looked to Higgins in the RZ yet — and that changes Sunday afternoon.
Rob Paul's TD play: Jaxon Smith-Njigba 49%
Week 3 draft spot: No. 8
More than anything, I want to draft a rookie here, but with Jadarian Price banged up, I'll opt for his teammate, Ohio State legend Jaxon Smith-Njigba.
JSN caught three TDs from Drew Lock last week and might get Sam Darnold back this week against a Commanders defense that allowed four TD passes against Dallas in Week 2.
Week 23TD combo: Covers Survivor Pool edition
Let's put some extra juice into tailing our touchdown survivor picks? Put them all together in a combo, with this week's combo equaling a 93.5x payout!
Kenneth Walker III
Christian McCaffrey
Derrick Henry
Jahmyr Gibbs
Amon-Ra St. Brown
Chris Olave
Tee Higgins
Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Covers Weekly TD Survivor tracker
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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