NFL First Touchdown Scorer Picks & Odds: Week 3

Finding the first touchdown scorer isn't always about backing the shortest price. This week, I'm targeting opportunity, red-zone usage, and a couple of matchups that could funnel touches toward the players we want.

Xavier Worthy, Cam Skattebo, and Ashton Jeanty headline my first touchdown scorer picks for Sunday.

Check out the rest of our NFL picks for more Week 3 betting analysis.

Best Week 3 first touchdown scorer props

For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.

Pick	Probability
Xavier Worthy	8%
Cam Skattebo	15%
Ashton Jeanty	13%

Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.

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Pick #1: Xavier Worthy first touchdown

Kalshi probability: 8%

For my money, the Miami Dolphins are the worst team in the NFL right now, and with the Kansas City Chiefs looking good, I have to expect Patrick Mahomes’ team to score first. Xavier Worthy offers us great value given what we’ve seen over the first two weeks.

He’s had 13 targets over the past two weeks, and the Chiefs are trying to manufacture touches for him, which is always a hugely positive sign. He also leads the Chiefs in red-zone targets with four, double Rashee Rice’s total and four times as many as Travis Kelce. Worthy offers us a real chance at a sizable return.

• Matchup: Chiefs vs. Dolphins
• Date/Time: Sunday, Sept. 27 at 1:00 p.m.
• Location: Hard Rock Stadium
• TV: CBS

Pick #2: Cam Skattebo first touchdown

Kalshi probability: 15%

We are expecting rain at MetLife Stadium on Sunday, with two of the league’s worst offenses — the Tennessee Titans and the Jaxson Dart-less New York Giants — facing off. With 17 mph winds also in the forecast, we could see plenty of rushing, which is a boost for Cam Skattebo, who can score the first touchdown of the game and his second of the season.

He leads the Giants in carries and red-zone touches. While the injury to Dart is a big blow for the team, it’s worth noting that Skattebo ran routes on 47% of passing plays in the last game, up from 27% the week before, so we could see the Giants utilize him even more. Either way, his hard running will be needed here. He’s also comfortably the team’s best rusher near the goal line and is less likely to have touchdowns vultured by Dart’s ability with his legs.

• Matchup: Titans vs. Giants
• Date/Time: Sunday, Sept. 27 at 1:00 p.m.
• Location: MetLife Stadium
• TV: CBS

Pick #3: Ashton Jeanty first touchdown

Kalshi probability: 13%

Through the opening two weeks of the season, the Las Vegas Raiders have looked good, albeit against a terrible Dolphins team and a Chargers team playing well short of expectations. With Brock Bowers sidelined, the offense has largely been dominated by Ashton Jeanty, who racked up 44 carries and 10 receptions through the opening two games.

Looking at this weekend’s odds, it feels like the Raiders are perhaps a little disrespected, and Jeanty is the man to back to open the scoring. Only the Panthers and Packers, who played Thursday, have allowed more rushing touchdowns to running backs. Jeanty also has nine red-zone touches and four catches inside the 20. That’s more red-zone involvement than any other running back in the league. A 13% chance to open the scoring feels far too low here.

• Matchup: Raiders vs. Saints
• Date/Time: Sunday, Sept. 27 at 4:25 p.m.
• Location: Caesars Superdome
• TV: CBS

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