NFL Anytime Touchdown Picks & TD Props: Week 3

Week 2 was all about injuries, as I lost four of my 15 picks to the infirmary. Despite that, the boat is still afloat with over five units of profit after two weeks of NFL picks on the touchdown front.  

This week is a great mix of 20-touch backs, rookie wideouts, tight ends getting bigger roles, and some top-end wide receivers at +EV prices. These prices are usually moving by kickoff, so get them in early and count that closing line value. 

These are my favorite NFL anytime touchdown scorer picks for Week 3.

Best Week 3 anytime touchdown scorer picks

For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.

Game	Pick	Probability
LAC vs BUF	Oronde Gadsden	24%
CAR vs CLE	Denzel Boston	24%
NYJ vs DET	Garrett Wilson	37%
HOU vs IND	David Montgomery	53%
KC vs MIA	Xavier Worthy	35%
TEN vs NYG	Elic Ayomanor	11%
CIN vs PIT	Ja'Marr Chase	43%
SEA vs WAS	Emanuel Wilson	33%
NE vs JAX	Hunter Henry	28%
ARI vs SF	Deebo Samuel	33%
MIN vs TB	Vikings DEF/ST	14%
BAL vs DAL	Jake Ferguson	27%
LV vs NO	Devaughn Vele	25%
LAR vs DEN	Davante Adams	43%

Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.

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Chargers vs Bills TD pick

Oronde Gadsden 24%

GRADE: 🟢

With both David Njoku and Charlie Kolar out long-term, Oronde Gadsden is set to pick up more snaps and is coming off a TD in Week 2 that paid 5.75x. The price move is still within the buy range, as I have a fair price for a possible No. 2 pass-catcher in this offense closer to 3x, compared to the 4.1x price tag early in the week.

Ladd McConkey is playing through his rib injury, and the rest of the pass-catchers in this offense are invisible. The unit as a whole has been bad. However, there will be plenty of passing opportunities for this Los Angeles offense, as its defense is one of the worst in football, while the Bills' defense has already allowed 62 points in two games.

Panthers vs Browns TD pick

Denzel Boston 24%

GRADE: 🟢

I really wanted Quinshon Judkins at 2.25x against the Panthers, who are getting gashed on the ground. However, getting Denzel Boston at this price after two weeks of cashing still feels long, with a fair price around 3.2x.

Judkins has not found any room to run through two games, but Boston already has a 21% target share and a whopping 52% air-yard share. The only wide receivers with a bigger AYS are Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Justin Jefferson, and Chris Olave — some big hitters.

Boston can run the deep route for a score like he did in Week 1 or catch and run for yards like he did last week. He's beaten the Jaguars and Bucs. Surely, he can beat the Panthers, who gave up 59 points in Week 1 before having to play the worst QB tandem in the history of the sport in Week 2.

Jets vs Lions TD pick

Garrett Wilson 37%

GRADE: 🟡

There are a lot of Jets angles I want here. The Lions have been awful at defending the TE position early in the season, as even the Saints had TDs from Juwan Johnson and Noah Fant in Week 1. The problem is that the Jets have a four-TE rotation, with Kenyon Sadiq at 5.1x being a possibility, but I'm looking elsewhere.

Adonai Mitchell (4.1x) had 12 targets last week and leads the Jets in target and air-yard share, but I don't want to get cute when Garrett Wilson is 2.5x or better.

It's an indoor game with a high total, and Wilson also ranks high on the Covers Anytime TD Value Index. The Jets could put up points against this toothless defense, and a move from 2.8x last week to 2.7x this week isn't enough for the setting and matchup.

If you need a long shot, Jeremy Ruckert at 11x or better fits the bill. He's getting some action in the rotation and is the only TE to get a red-zone target, although Sadiq did have a designed run in tight in Week 1. 

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Texans vs Colts TD pick

David Montgomery 53%

GRADE: 🟢

Your TD card can't be littered with long shots, and getting a clear-cut No. 1 running back with the short-yardage role against the worst scoring defense in football at 1.87x is still a great deal. This should come with a fair price of 1.69x, or 59% vs. 53%.

Every position has been padding stats against the Colts this year, and running backs are no exception. Only two other teams are giving up more fantasy points to opposing running backs than the Colts, who gave up 41 points last week and got run over by Kenneth Walker, who likely should have had a TD count. In Week 2, they allowed 5.2 yards per rush, and in Week 1, that number was 5.5.

It's another indoor game, and David Montgomery should look more like his Week 1 self than his Week 2 output, when he had two TDs on 20 carries.

Chiefs vs Dolphins TD pick

Xavier Worthy 35%

GRADE: 🟡

I got this at 2.8x with a fair price of 2.55x. It's the No. 2 TD on the Covers Anytime Value Index, and with Patrick Mahomes looking more pass than handoff in Week 2, this passing game could have a big three quarters of football against the Dolphins.

Miami has a bottom-six defense in both EPA/play and success rate, while its dropback success rate and EPA/play rank as the second-worst in football. The Chiefs can do whatever they want on Sunday and put up 35+ points.

Xavier Worthy has twice as many RZ targets through two games as Rashee Rice and is priced better. He also played more snaps and ran more routes than Rice in Week 2 and leads the team in target share at 20%. It's Worthy over Rice for me in Week 3.

Titans vs Giants TD pick

Elic Ayomanor 11%

GRADE: 🟡

Elic Ayomanor might be WR2 facing a Giants defense that is on a short week and dealing with cluster injuries at corner. Davante Adams did whatever he wanted on MNF because of the lack of NFL talent at corner.

Ayomanor should not be longer than 5.5x. He's playing better than Calvin Ridley and is getting targeted on 20% of his routes while sitting second on the team in air-yard share at 30%. He also has all three of the WR red-zone targets through two games, with a TD.

It's a longer shot here, but certainly +EV. The only thing knocking it is a bad passing offense, but the Eagles and Jets are a lot different than the Giants, who have allowed a red-zone touchdown on all six of their opponents' trips inside the 20.

Bengals vs Steelers TD pick

Ja'Marr Chase 43%

GRADE: 🟡

I got this at 2.3x and would play it to 2.15x. This is not a game to get cute. It could be a low-scoring AFC North battle, but with Joey Porter just getting back to action and Jamel Dean missing practice, the Steelers' depth and stamina at corner are not great against the second-best receiver in football.

The Steelers have faced the Patriots and Falcons, so their defensive numbers could be inflated, and they have yet to see a legit QB-WR combo. Ja'Marr Chase had a two-TD Week 2 and leads all Bengals WRs in red-zone targets. Chase put up 161 yards on 16 catches and a TD in the first meeting vs. the Steelers last year. 

Stay away from Mike Gesicki this week. Don't fall for a big Week 1 like I did last week.

Seahawks vs Commanders TD pick

Emanuel Wilson 33%

GRADE: 🟢

I got this at 3x, and even if Jadarian Price is out, this could close at 2.3x. Even if Price does play, Emanuel Wilson handled more red-zone carries last week than any other running back in football and didn't get a full workload until the second half.

Another angle here is that the Seahawks want to run the ball in the red zone. Through two games with Drew Lock, Seattle has run the ball 18 times in the red zone compared to just nine dropbacks.

Price is dealing with a chest injury that could keep him out of the hard-yardage work in the red zone even if he dresses. Give me the 20-touch back at a long TD price in a positive-game-script matchup against a backup QB.

Patriots vs Jaguars TD pick

Hunter Henry 28%

GRADE: 🟢

This is one of the higher +EV TD plays, per THE BLITZ projections, which have Hunter Henry at a fair price of 3.05x vs. this 3.5x bargain.

I'm not going to try to figure out a muddied New England backfield, but Henry is playing 92% of the snaps, and the injury to rookie Eli Raridon could help open up some more targets.

The New England wide receivers are tough to trust, with five of them splitting just 12 targets last week. Henry led the team in routes and targets last week and might be the No. 1 option in the passing game right now. TEs with this kind of route and target volume should be around 3x to score.

Cardinals vs 49ers TD pick

Deebo Samuel 33%

GRADE: 🟢

I got this at 3x and think the fair price should be around 2.65x. Deebo Samuel led the team in route share in a similar spot last week as a huge favorite. The 49ers still had a 4.4% PROE (eighth-best) despite the positive game script, which keeps me hopeful that Brock Purdy will keep slinging it. The overall play volume wasn't huge, but Samuel tied for the team lead in targets and had a rush, his second in two weeks.

Samuel could have a path to more targets in Week 3 with Demarcus Robinson out and Mike Evans becoming more questionable after being a DNP at practice Wednesday.

Purdy is playing at an MVP level, and Samuel has a role around the goal line, as he is tied for the team lead in RZ targets with three and has one score. If Evans sits, this could close as short as 2.4x or 2.5x.

For you maniacs, third-string running back Jordan James might be the better last TD target, as he ate the garbage-time carries in Week 2. 

Vikings vs Buccaneers TD pick

Vikings DEF/ST 14%

GRADE: 🟢

This is a 7.2x price at Kalshi that is as short as 6x at other places. I would play this at 6.5x or better, though.

The Buccaneers and Baker Mayfield have been one of the most careless offenses in football, with five giveaways through two games. Mayfield has accounted for four of those turnovers and now has to face a team blitzing at a 73% rate with four takeaways already.

The Minnesota defense should be a worrisome matchup for the Tampa QB, who finished 31st last year in blitzed catchable rate. The Bucs have already allowed a fumble to be housed by the Bengals in Week 1.

Ravens vs Cowboys TD pick

Jake Ferguson  27%

GRADE: 🟡

This was a tough one. I wanted Lamar Jackson, as the Cowboys are giving up the most QB rushing yards in the league by a mile, but 2.75x isn't a price I want to pay when it went from 3.6x to 2.85x week to week. It's priced in.

Rashod Bateman midweek is appetizing, but I don't want to be holding a 2.75x ticket if Zay Flowers comes back.

I have to go back to Jake Ferguson at 3.65x after a cash last week and two red-zone TDs. He is still the No. 3 option in the passing game but has a prominent goal-line role, with three of the team's seven RZ pass attempts to tight ends and wide receivers. Dallas had the No. 1 PROE in Week 2 at 13.8%. I'd play Ferguson to 3.40x.

Raiders vs Saints TD pick

Devaughn Vele 25%

GRADE: 🟢

I have to back the arm of Tyler Shough and his league-leading passing yards, but it's not Chris Olave I want — it's Devaughn Vele with his 95% snap share and 90% route share in an indoor game.

Vele is a clear No. 2 in this offense and is working with a 20% target share from a quarterback who has thrown for 250+ yards in back-to-back games despite slow first halves. The wide receiver has 16 targets over two games, turning them into 12 catches for 133 yards and a TD. He's also received at least one RZ target in both games.

It's another indoor game that projects to be faster and more pass-efficient, and I'm not sure this Las Vegas offense is as strong as its numbers suggest. I got this at 3.95x and would play it to 3.5x.

Rams vs Broncos TD pick

Davante Adams 43%

GRADE: 🟢

This might seem short, but I have the fair price much closer to even money. Matthew Stafford had no interest in passing to anyone but Davante Adams last Monday, even with the injuries to Puka Nacua and Jordan Whittington, who have been DNPs early this week. Adding to the pass-catcher injuries, Colby Parkinson is dealing with a knee injury. Parkinson played 70% of the snaps in Week 2 and was used more as a blocker, which could be a downgrade for the run game.

Stafford was also happy to keep passing in the second half of a game that was already over when Jaxson Dart left. Adams was a beast against a bad secondary, putting up 195 yards and two TDs on 10 targets. He has a 28% target share heading into the Sunday nighter.

Adams is also arguably the best red-zone pass-catching wide receiver in football. He tied for the league lead in RZ targets last year with 32 despite playing in only 14 games. He should be even money here, and even Patrick Surtain doesn't scare me.

My weekly NFL TD props column is 9-20 this season for +5.6 units (with five first-half injuries).

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