Sunday features a pivotal AFC South matchup as the Houston Texans face the Jacksonville Jaguars at EverBank Stadium.
The Texans are 0-2 on the season after a late defeat to the Buccaneers. The Jaguars sit at 1-1 after allowing the Bengals to beat them in the final moments. With the Colts already at 2-0 on the year, a win is needed for both squads.
My Texans vs. Jaguars predictions are keying on CJ Stroud’s poor offensive line. Don't miss my free NFL picks for today's battle.
Texans vs Jaguars prediction
Texans vs Jaguars Best bet: CJ Stroud Over 17.5 rushing yards (-114)
Last week, I gave out CJ Stroud’s rushing Over for his best prop bet. And if it ain’t broke, why fix it?
I’m hesitant to call the unit in front of Stroud an offensive line, but then again, the way they’re performing is pretty offensive. They’ve been more like a revolving door so far this season.
It’s a good thing for Stroud and the Houston Texans that players are getting healthy. Christian Kirk and Braxton Berrios both were full participants in Friday’s practice, as was center Jake Andrews. While that will be helpful, I’m not sure how much it will matter.
Stroud was sacked three times by the Buccaneers on Monday night and was hit six times. Those are nearly identical numbers to what he dealt with against the Rams, who hit him seven times.
It won’t get any easier against the Jacksonville Jaguars. They picked up three sacks and nine QB hits against the Bengals, one of which knocked Joe Burrow out for possibly the rest of the season.
They had five more hits against the Panthers, but also allowed escape routes. Bryce Young picked up 40 yards on five carries, with all five runs coming on designed pass plays.
Stroud has rushed for 32 yards on five carries against the Rams and 27 yards on four carries against the Buccaneers. With his receiving corps getting a boost, the Jaguars won’t be able to spy him as easily.
The Jaguars are defending the run fairly well this season, and Nick Chubb is providing little threat in that area. Stroud will be in passing situations behind that Swiss-cheese line fairly often.
Not only will I take the Over, but I’ll be laddering him up to 30 yards.
Texans vs Jaguars same-game parlay
The Jaguars looked much more like last year’s defense than what we saw against the anemic Panther offense, and Ja’Marr Chase tore them to shreds. He had 14 catches for 165 yards, while Tee Higgins added 56 on three catches.
Nico Collins will be very happy to see the return of Kirk and Berrios, which should allow him to once again hurt the Jaguars. He has gone over 100 receiving yards in his other two trips to Jacksonville.
Liam Coen is loving what he’s seeing from his ground game, and Travis Etienne should see plenty of carries. He’s facing a Houston defense that isn’t great against the run, having already allowed three different backs to top 60 yards in just two games.
Take away his 71-yd run against the Panthers and he’s still averaging 4.93 ypc. He’ll get 60+ here.
Texans vs Jaguars 3-leg SGP
- CJ Stroud Over 17.5 rushing yards
- Nico Collins Over 68.5 receiving yards
- Travis Etienne Over 56.5 rushing yards
Our big-ticket SGP: Etienne eats
- The Texans have given up a rushing score to a running back in each of their first two games.
- Etienne is due one with how well he’s running the ball.
Texans vs Jaguars 4-leg SGP
- CJ Stroud Over 17.5 rushing yards
- Nico Collins Over 68.5 receiving yards
- Travis Etienne Over 56.5 rushing yards
- Travis Etienne anytime touchdown
Texans vs Jaguars game predictions
Texans vs Jaguars moneyline prediction
The Jaguars have one of the best young playcallers in Liam Coen, and he’s got the Jaguars running the ball well. Trevor Lawrence still needs to improve his play, but their ability to control the game on the ground will help them cover the spread.
Texans vs Jaguars spread prediction
The Jaguars lost last week to the Bengals, but had multiple chances to win on the road. The Texans have been in both their games, but have been unable to get stops late. The Jaguars will find a way to win at home.
Texans vs Jaguars Over/Under prediction
I’m leaning Under. The Texans have struggled to put up consistent numbers offensively, although the return of two receivers should help, but the running game is struggling without Joe Mixon. Meanwhile, this Jaguars defense has improved, and they’re relying more on the ground game while Lawrence has been inconsistent.
Texans vs Jaguars odds
- Spread: Texans +1.5 | Jaguars -1.5
- Moneyline: Texans +110 | Jaguars -130
- Over/Under: Over 43 | Under 43
More NFL picks and odds from Covers
Texans vs Jaguars trend to know
The Jaguars have cashed the team total Over in eight of their last nine home games (+7.00 units / 63% ROI). Find more NFL betting trends for Texans vs. Jaguars.
How to watch Texans vs Jaguars
| Location | EverBank Stadium, Jacksonville, FL |
| Date | Sunday, September 21, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | CBS |
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