Marquez Valdes-Scantling erupted for 116 yards against the Bengals two weeks ago in the AFC Championship but the Super Bowl odds suggest the Kansas City wideout will see regression tonight.
The Over/Under for Valdes-Scantlings receiving yards Super Bowl player props is set at around 36.5. With MVS coming off an MVP-caliber performance in his last game is that modest number ripe for the picking or should you consider fading him against an elite Eagles pass defense?
I let you know with my Super Bowl picks for Valdes-Scantling, including a four-leg same-game parlay.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling Super Bowl 57 prop pick and same-game parlay
- Valdes-Scantling u37.5 rec yds
- Valdes-Scantling u34.5 rec yds + Smith-Schuster o34.5 rec yds + Kelce o84.5 rec yds + Chiefs TT o22.5
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Marquez Valdes-Scantling Super Bowl 57 best bet
Marquez Valdes-Scantling had a monster game against the Bengals, but Cincinnati was trotting out some mediocre boundary corners and the Philadelphia Eagles have two of the best in the business. James Bradberry and Darius Slay ranked ninth and 10th in the league in pass coverage grade among corners according to PFF and both have the size to match up against MVS.
Valdes-Scantling also benefitted with an increase in targets thanks to the Kansas City Chiefs' receivers dropping like flies in that game. Mecole Hardman, Kadarius Toney, and Juju Smith-Schuster all left the game early after combining for just six targets. Smith-Schuster and Toney are both expected to play at the Super Bowl, which will cut into Valdes-Scantling's target share.
Keep in mind that Smith-Schuster led all Chiefs wide receivers in targets (101) and receiving yards (933) during the regular season, while Toney had seven targets in the AFC Divisional round against Jacksonville. Kansas City quarterback Patrick Mahomes loves to spread the ball around and his favorite target is tight end Travis Kelce. After Kelce, the production of every other receiver ebbs and flows depending on matchups and game situations.
Prior to that 100-yard performance against the Bengals, Valdes-Scantling had been held below 30 receiving yards in each of his previous six contests, averaging just 4.2 targets and 17.8 yards per game over that span. Valdes-Scantling had a target share of just 13.3% during the regular season with that number getting even lower during the second half of the year. He also had a catch rate of just 51.9% on the 81 targets he did see.
With Mahomes likely looking at receivers other than Valdes-Scantling, take the Under on his receiving yards tonight.
Prop: Valdes-Scantling Under 37.5 receiving yards (-110)
Marquez Valdes-Scantling Super Bowl 57 SGP
Under 34.5 receiving yards
Smith-Schuster Over 34.5 receiving yards
Kelce Over 84.5 receiving yards
Chiefs team total Over 22.5
While I'm expecting MVS to see fewer targets this evening, those pass attempts from Mahomes need to go somewhere. I'm tabbing a solid game from the more reliable Smith-Schuster (26th in the league with a 77.9% catch rate) and another big performance from Kelce, who always seems to consistently churn out big yards in postseason contests.
Further, the Chiefs' high-octane attack should also be able to score at least 23 points against an Eagles defense that has rarely been tested this season.
Same-game parlay: Valdes-Scantling u34.5 rec yds/Smith-Schuster o34.5 rec yds/Kelce o84.5 rec yds/Chiefs TT o22.5 (+800 at DraftKings)