Best Bets for Super Bowl LV Player Props

Josh Inglis

Feb 7, 2021 - 8:17 AM ET

Player props have evolved into huge markets for Super Bowl LV betting action, with more and more player-specific bets hitting the books as today's Big Game is hours away from kickoff.

Super Bowl player props span from classic markets, like touchdowns and rushing yards, to anytime touchdown scorers, interceptions, and every statistic in between. If it’s in the box score, you can bet on it.

To help navigate the mountains of Super Bowl props, we've hunted down your best bets for player props for the Kansas City Chiefs and Tampa Bay Buccaneers. 

Touchdown Props

Anytime TD - Leonard Fournette (+105)

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are one the league's best teams at successfully rushing the ball inside the five-yard line for TDs. Over the season, 60 percent of every run on the opposing five-yard line or shorter found paydirt—a success rate that is 35 percent higher than the Chiefs. 

Also in the Bucs’ favor is the K.C. defense that has gotten owned all year at the line of scrimmage. The Chiefs D-line is averaging 1.69 yards before contact, which is a huge number considering the Bucs D-line sits at 0.85 yards before contact. Add these up and it could be some easy red-zone running for RB Leonard Fournette.

Since Ronald Jones II fell on his face last week with just 16 yards on 10 carries (and zero red-zone looks), Fournette will be the back to target for TD purposes. The Bucs’ O-line has a very positive 41 percent rushing advantage against the Chiefs’ D-line, per Pro Football Focus, while Fournette has scored in each of his teams’ playoff games.

The Chiefs did a great job at bottling up the Browns’ running game two weeks ago but against Tom Brady and his passing weapons, Andy Reid will have to protect the big play, which could lead to more two-safety looks.

With three players ahead of him for worse TD odds, Fournette at +105 is a great deal for any starting RB—especially one who has a huge advantage in the OL vs DL matchup.

Pick made Feb. 1, 2021

First Player to Score - Mike Evans (+1,000)

The Buccaneers have scored the game’s first TD in 10 of their 19 games this year and have been the first to cross the end zone in five straight games. In their two most recent contests, it has been WR Mike Evans who was the game's first scorer, and at +1,000 to do it again next Sunday, it’s hard not to like the TB receiver to hit the trifecta.

Evans has only four grabs over the last two games but has made them count with two TDs. The Bucs’ receiver tallied two scores against the Chiefs in Week 12 and has enjoyed success this year in the red zone with a total of 10 receiving TDs from inside the 20-yard line—something only two other players in NFL history have accomplished.

Fellow receiver Chris Godwin only saw nine red-zone targets on the year, compared to Evans’ 21, as the latter’s advantage in height and size are a big reason for the extra looks.

The Chiefs’ primary defender for Evans will likely be corner Bashaud Breeland. The seventh-year corner may be the team’s most positively graded DB, per Pro Football Focus, but Breeland is giving up six inches and 36 pounds to Evans. You can bet Brady will be looking to take advantage of that size disadvantage early and often on the big stage.

Pick made Jan. 28, 2021

Mecole Hardman anytime TD (+225) and MVP (+3,300)

Looking for a real longshot for the game’s MVP? Considering they just give it to QB’s every year, it’s hard to get any value out of a Super Bowl MVP pick these days. However, one Kansas City special teamer has a better shot than his odds give him credit for.

Mecole Hardman is one of nine players to return a punt for a TD this year. Only Tyreek Hill has better wheels than Hardman's 4.33 speed. The K.C. returner could have a couple of opportunities to exploit a weak Buccaneers coverage team on the big stage.

New Orleans’ Deonte Harris (similar 40 time as Hardman's) had three punt returns against Tampa in the Divisional round and returned one for a TD that was nullified by penalty and had two more for 61 yards including a 54-yarder. The Bucs average 3.4 punts per game so the speedy returner will likely get his chances. 

Hardman also has a role in the offense, where he managed a touchdown last week that ignited the K.C. offense. He should get his usual 3-5 targets in the passing game with his red-zone looks being massively important.

Hardman to win the MVP is priced at +3,300 which are the 14th-highest odds. It would be tough to take an MVP away from him if he did rip off a return TD. If you can’t get on the MVP card, Hardman to score anytime is priced nicely at +225. 

Pick made Feb. 6, 2021.

Passing Props

With a game that has an Over/Under total set in the mid-to-high 50s, it's no surprise to see massive numbers for Mahomes and Brady's passing props.

Passing Touchdowns

Passing Yards

Patrick Mahomes Over 338.5 passing yards (-120)

Mahomes absolutely shredded the Buccaneers back in Week 12, throwing for a season-high 462 yards and completing 75 percent of his passes. The Chiefs ran 71 plays and rushed just 20 times. Another lopsided game plan should be in store for the Chiefs today, as K.C. is average at running the ball, but nobody runs against the Bucs and expects to move the chains.

The combination of Kelce and Hill is almost enough to get Mahomes to his passing yardage total of 338.5 yards. In just two games, Hill has more yards after the catch than any other receiver in the postseason, as he’s flaunted his ability to take short passes a long way.

Kelce can rumble for YAC as well, but the TE has been so consistent moving the chains and is averaging a league-best 6.5 first downs per game this postseason. Together, they're averaging over 250 yards receiving per game in the playoffs.

If Aaron Rodgers and his receiving corps can put up 346 yards passing against the Bucs’ soft secondary, Mahomes and his weapons could put up Week 12 numbers again.

Over his seven career playoff games, Mahomes has averaged nearly 300 passing yards per game. 339 yards is a lot and possibly the highest total we’ve taken with an Over, but the QB has topped this number seven times this year and Tampa makes it much easier with that secondary.

Pick made February 7, 2021.

Receiving Props

If passing props are going to be high, well, so are receiving props. Travis Kelce, coming off his monster performance, has one of the highest receiving totals you'll ever see for a tight end.

Receptions

Leonard Fournette Over 3.5 receptions (-125)

Running back Leonard Fournette has taken the reins of the Buccaneers’ starting gig. Fournette out-snapped Ronald Jones II 45 to 18 and outgained his teammate 74 yards to 16 yards last week. Fournette has looked good running the ball, but it's the new starters’ work in the passing game that has our attention.

Fournette didn’t manage much yardage through the air last week, but the RB was targeted seven times, which was the third-highest amount on the team. Fournette hauled in five of those passes while Jones wasn’t even targeted.

The former Jaguars RB has amassed 14 catches through three playoff games and faces a K.C. team that gave up the most receiving yards to opposing backs along with 5.4 RB catches per game.

With a total of 3.5 receptions, we are banging the Over and would love to see Tampa play catch up and get heavy usage out of Fournette in the screen game. 

The TB running back has topped this total in three straight games, while the Chiefs have allowed four or more catches to opposing RBs twice in their last three, including four receptions to T.J. Yeldon in the Divisional Game.

Pick made Jan 31, 2021

Receiving Yards

Tyreek Hill Over 93.5 Receiving Yards (-120)

Tyreek Hill has more yards after the catch than any other receiver during these playoffs and has played just two games. Of his 282 playoff receiving yards, 152 of them came after the catch. Hill is just on another level than most defenders in open space, and his 21 targets over the last two games suggest the Chiefs are going to give him every opportunity to keep racking up yards.

Hill spent more than half his time in the slot this year and it’s there where the Chiefs could exploit a Tampa Bay weakness. Slot corner Sean Murphy-Bunting is the lowest rated corner between both teams, per PFF, and gave up a 76 percent catch rate this year. SMB was targeted 83 times this year and gave up 65 receptions to opposing receivers.

The only way to stop Hill is to deny him the ball, but with his current form and the skill of his primary defender, we don’t think Tampa can do that.

Pick made Feb 5, 2021. 

Scotty Miller Under 20.5 Receiving Yards (-120)

Tampa Bay receiver Scotty Miller saw 43 percent of the team’s offensive snaps against the Packers and ran routes on 20 of Tom Brady’s 37 dropbacks. The extra bump in snaps for the Bucs’ No. 4 receiver was due to Antonio Brown missing the Conference Championship, but reports are stating that Brown will be good to go for the big game.

In the previous nine games that Brown was in the lineup (and finished the game), Miller failed to top 20 yards receiving in eight of them. If it wasn’t for the worst defensive play of the playoffs, Miller would have likely finished his previous game with one catch for negative yards.

Miller wasn’t targeted much without Brown and will likely be targeted even less with Brown in the lineup—think zero to two targets.

Miller’s receiving total in the Conference Championship closed at 24.5 receiving yards. It can be found at 20.5 for Super Bowl LV, which is a great number to fade for a guy who will be the sixth or seventh option in the passing game.

Pick made Feb 2, 2021

Cameron Brate Over 27.5 Receiving Yards

Tampa Bay tight end Cameron Brate has been a big part of the Buccaneers’ success during this year’s playoffs. The TE has seen at least five targets and has scored a TD or topped 49 yards receiving in each of the three games. 

Brate has been much more involved in the passing game than teammate Rob Gronkowski, who has just two catches across the three playoff games. The TE's opponent has allowed the eight-most fantasy points to opposing TEs thanks to an average of 5.25 catches and 60 yards allowed per game.

With Tom Brady’s passing attempt total at 40, and assuming Brate’s 15 percent target share, five to six targets for the TE is a safe bet. With his reception total of 2.5 being a little heavy on the juicy side, we have no problem pivoting to his receiving total of 27.5 and hitting the Over. Brate has cleared that total four times in the five games he has seen five or more targets.

Pick made Feb. 3, 2021

Rushing Props

There is a lot of uncertainty around the running back situation for both teams, although it appears that Leonard "Playoff Lenny" Fournette has become the top running back in Tampa. 

Rushing Yards

Patrick Mahomes Under 19.5 Rushing Yards (-120)

Patrick Mahomes looked great in the pocket last week despite his toe injury. The appendage problem is so serious that reports have stated that Mahomes may need surgery in the offseason, but the Chiefs' QB made every throw against the Bills but his ability to take off was definitely affected by the toe.

Last week against the Bills, Mahomes had many chances to take off but instead chose to throw the ball and finished with five rushing yards. Next Sunday could be more of the same, especially with how well the K.C. QB has passed against the Bucs.

In their Week 12 matchup, Mahomes threw for a season-high 462 yards against this same Buccaneers pass defense. Tampa Bay gave up the eighth-highest completion percentage (68 percent) to opposing teams and will see a heavy dose of the K.C. passing game, considering how stout its run defense has been all season.

Tampa Bay has some of the fastest linebackers in the league, which helped hold opposing QBs to the league’s sixth-lowest rushing mark. We’re hoping to see a lot of pocket Patrick at Super Bowl LV.

Pick made Jan. 29, 2021

Clyde Edwards-Helaire Over 28.5 rushing yards (-120)

Kansas City rookie running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire returned to the field in the Conference Championships after a hip injury had kept him out of action since Week 15. His performance was anything but impressive (seven yards on seven touches and a TD) but his usage was the bigger takeaway.

Despite being rusty, the Chiefs trotted out the RB for 49 percent of the offensive snaps, which was more than teammate Darrel Williams. Another two weeks of rest should do the rookie well, and his previous dud of seven yards may be beneficial for those who want to hit the Over on his modest rushing total of 28.5 yards.

CEH ran 11 times for 37 yards against the Bucs in Week 12 and that type of volume should be a good indicator of his usage for the Super Bowl. He was averaging nearly 14 carries a game in the four contests before the injury and would only need eight carries at 3.7 yards per carry (Tampa Bay’s season YPC average) to cash the Over.

We’re not afraid of Le’Veon Bell poaching carries, and love all the people fading the Chiefs’ most talented back.

Pick made Feb. 4, 2021. 

Rushing Attempts