Rams vs Packers Monday Night Football Picks and Predictions: Rodgers Locks In

It's been a disappointing season for both Green Bay and Los Angeles, but something will have to give at Lambeau Field on Monday. With a much-needed bye behind him, our NFL betting picks expect Aaron Rodgers to come out firing.

Last Updated: Dec 19, 2022 7:49 PM ET Read Time: 4 min

The Los Angeles Rams are a long way from southern California when they close out NFL Week 15, visiting the Green Bay Packers on the frozen tundra at Lambeau Field for Monday Night Football.

The extended forecast for this Week 15 finale is calling for “feels like” temperatures around five degrees, with periods of snow Monday evening. Los Angeles is hoping new quarterback Baker Mayfield can stay hot in this chilly climate after putting on a Disney-inspired performance in last Thursday’s comeback win over Las Vegas.

A loss for either team would kill their postseason hopes, so the pressure is on in primetime. I run down the point spread and Over/Under total for Monday Night Football and give my best NFL betting picks and predictions for the Rams vs. Packers on December 19.

Be sure to also check out our MNF prop picks!

Rams vs Packers best odds

Rams vs Packers picks and predictions

A bye week is supposed to be a nice break away from the grind of the football season as well as the microscope of the media. Aaron Rodgers’ Week 14 hiatus was anything but.

While Rodgers wasn’t making headlines on the field, reports about his professional and personal life made the rounds. One story was about his 30-plus hand signals that receivers are expected to know (despite never being taught) and another was about a potential breakup, this time with influencer Blu of Earth. 

But while the rags didn’t ease up on Rodgers last week, the extended time off will do his aging body wonders. The reigning NFL MVP was playing through multiple injuries and ailments since early in the schedule, and considering the break and the current uptick for this offense, Rodgers is expecting big things from his crew in the home stretch.

“We’ve got to score points,” Aaron Rodgers told the media this week. “We need to be in the 30s moving forward. Regardless of what our defense does, (if) we score 30 points, we should win those games. Whatever it takes for us on offense.”

What it takes will be a continuous improvement from the Packers’ passing attack, which has helped power this improvement in offense.

Green Bay sits No. 6 in EPA per dropback since Week 10 (was 17th in the first nine weeks), with Rodgers throwing eight touchdown passes to just one interception during this stretch. He did so against some sound pass defenses as well, taking on the likes of Dallas and Philadelphia (No. 1 and No. 2 in Pass Defense DVOA). 

Rodgers passing touchdown total for Monday Night Football is set at 1.5 with the Over paying out as high as +105 at PointsBet. Even with Rodgers not playing like his past self for much of the year, he’s connected for two or more touchdowns in nine of his 13 games. 

Given the large spread and inclement weather for Wisconsin, and the fact Rodgers threw for just one TD vs. Chicago in Week 13, you can see why this prop is juiced to the Under. But there’s great value on Rodgers to keep the touchdowns coming at this price — especially considering the matchup.

Green Bay’s best offensive efforts have been anchored by the run game, but the Rams remain one of the stingiest run-stop units in the land. Los Angeles gives up only four yards per carry and sits No. 5 in Run Defense DVOA at Football Outsiders. Though it ranks 23rd against the pass in that advanced metric and 27th in EPA allowed per dropback on the year.

The Rams are second in red-zone Defense DVOA and second in opponent TD percentage inside the 20-yard line — a strength tied to their ability to stop the run. Foes have had more success finding the end zone with the pass this season and Green Bay comes in as the ninth-best passing RZ offense, according to Football Outsiders.

And despite the controversy around Rodgers and the treatment of his young receivers, the veteran is beginning to grow into those fresh-face targets. Christian Watson has become a major scoring threat with seven touchdowns in the past four games and rookie Romeo Doubs is expected to return to action for the first time since November and was clicking with Rodgers before suffering an ankle injury.  

This is the healthiest we’ve seen Rodgers in a long time and the best we’ve seen this Packers passing game playing, which is now at full strength. Asking for two touchdowns from the MVP doesn’t seem like too much of a stretch on Monday night.

My best bet: Aaron Rodgers Over 1.5 passings touchdowns (+105)

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Rams vs Packers spread analysis

The lookahead line for this matchup was as big as Green Bay -9 before the Rams made the move to sign QB Baker Mayfield after he was released by Carolina early last week, hoping to fill the hole left by Matthew Stafford’s injury issues. 

Mayfield was snatched up two days before L.A.’s Thursday Night Football matchup with Las Vegas in Week 14 and was thrust into action early in that game. Despite only knowing a sliver of the playbook, Mayfield led the Rams to victory with a last-minute drive.

With the Packers on a much-needed bye in Week 14, Los Angeles’ win over the Raiders forced this spread to slim to -8 and eventually dip to as low as Green Bay -7 as we get closer to Monday’s kickoff. 

The Cheeseheads are big favorites at home in a game that holds a rest and preparation edge, but also a notable home-field advantage due to the Wisconsin weather. Green Bay has been one of the worst bets in the NFL this season, lugging a 5-8 ATS count into Week 15. 

The offense has been at the core of this poor performance but has shown life in the past four outings. The Packers sit No. 4 in EPA per play since Week 10 with life coming from Aaron Rodgers and the passing game. The offense has averaged more than 27 points per game in this span and goes up against a Rams defense that has been as equally as disappointing when compared to past standards.

Los Angeles is 14th in Defensive DVOA at Football Outsiders and this once-feared pass rush has been declawed, generating pressure on only 16% of dropbacks (second lowest) and posting 26 sacks on the season. Star pass rusher Aaron Donald remains out of action with an ankle injury.

Donald is just one of many L.A. standouts missing on both sides of the ball. Stafford is likely finished for the season with multiple injuries, WRs Cooper Kupp and Allen Robinson are out, and the Rams' offensive line is very thin down the home stretch of the schedule.

According to DraftKings sportsbooks, the ticket count on Monday Night Football is relatively split with L.A. drawing 52% of the bets. However, more money is riding on the home side with 61% of handle laying the points with Green Bay. Covers Consensus shows 53% of picks on the Rams.

Rams vs Packers Over/Under analysis

This Over/Under total was as high as 41 points on the lookahead line but now sits as low as 39.5 points on Sunday morning.

The cold could make things very uncomfortable on the field for both sides, and the snow could add to visibility issues and make throwing downfield tricky. But wind — the most disruptive natural force — won’t be much of a factor, with gusts topping out at 15 mph.

As mentioned, the Packers' offensive output struggled for a good portion of the season — ranking 23rd in EPA per play in the opening nine weeks — but has picked it up in the past four games. A week off and extra reps could help Matt LaFleur build on that momentum heading into the home stretch.

Los Angeles' offense is missing some key skill players and while Mayfield was a great story last Thursday, he’s still a brand-new passer trying to cram a new playbook into a mini bye. The Rams still ran the ball 38 times and have watched their offensive tendencies shift toward the ground game with Stafford out of action. 

Los Angeles has handed the ball off on 46.37% of snaps the past three games, a sharp uptick in rushing compared to a run rate of just 36.35% before that stretch. Mayfield was forced to push the ball downfield in that comeback win, but when you take out his longest completion of 32 yards, you’re left with 5.8 yards per attempt from the former Panthers' passer.

The Packers' most reliable slice of playbook has been the two-headed running game of Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon, which has helped the Cheesehead rank No. 7 in Run Offense DVOA at Football Outsiders. But, despite all their other issues, Los Angeles remains sound at stopping the run. The Rams sit fifth in EPA allowed per handoff on the season and budge for only four yards per attempt.

According to DraftKings, the Over has drawn 62% of the ticket count while the handle is a bit more balanced with 52% of the money on the Over as well.

Rams vs Packers same-game parlay

Rodgers Over 1.5 passing TDs (-115) + Packers moneyline (-330) + Mayfield Over 0.5 interceptions (-170)

Rodgers is pushing for points and will lead the way with at least two touchdown throws against the Rams’ suspect pass defense. His counterpart, Baker Mayfield, will have the game thrust on his shaky shoulders if this big spread is any indication.

Mayfield avoided an INT against the Raiders, but there were plenty of close calls. Before that game, he had as many TD passes and INTs (six) on the season. We tie a bow on this SGP with the Cheeseheads winning outright in the middle of this classic Wisconsin winter. 

MNF SGP odds: +210 at bet365

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Rams vs Packers betting trend to know

A late-season trip to Lambeau Field is a daunting task — no matter how good or bad the Packers are playing. Since 2000, the Cheeseheads are 50-12 SU and 37-23-2 ATS at home between Week 13 and the end of the regular season. That includes an undefeated 8-0 SU mark and 5-3 ATS count since Matt LaFleur took over as head coach in 2019. Find more NFL betting trends for Rams vs. Packers.

Rams vs Packers game info

Location: Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI
Date: Monday, December 19, 2022
Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. ET
Opening odds: Packers -9, 41

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