The Las Vegas Raiders and Washington Commanders both aim to rebound from prime-time Week 2 losses as they meet at Northwest Stadium this afternoon.
Despite Jayden Daniels being out with a knee injury, my Raiders vs. Commanders predictions and NFL picks give the edge to the home side to cover the spread in Week 3.
Raiders vs Commanders prediction
Raiders vs Commanders Best bet: Commanders -3 (-105)
Before news broke that Washington Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels was nursing a knee injury, the Commanders were one of my favorite bets of the week.
Fast forward four days, and we’re landing Washington at -3, with backup QB Marcus Mariota set to start behind center against the Las Vegas Raiders.
The Commanders are coming off their mini bye following a loss on Thursday Night Football in Week 2, while it’s a short week with a cross-continent trip for an early game for the Raiders after being silenced by the Los Angeles Chargers on MNF.
Las Vegas was held to just 218 yards of offense and out of the end zone entirely last week, and QB Geno Smith ranks 29th in adjusted EPA per play and 31st in success rate among 34 qualified QBs through two games.
Returning to Mariota, this is his second season with the organization, and he has 74 starts across his 10-year career. Add a sterling collegiate run at Oregon, which included playing in the National Championship, and the moment won’t be too big for Mariota on Sunday.
Raiders vs Commanders same-game parlay
Vegas ranks 24th in PFF offense grade and 27th in offensive DVOA, while Washington respectively checks in at 22nd and 15th, so neither offense has been overly effective or scoring in bunches.
And, while I am anticipating a solid game from Mariota, he doesn’t bring the same game-breaking ability to the table as Daniels does.
Commanders rookie running back Jacory Croskey-Merritt scored in Week 1, and he’s set to handle a significant workload with backfield mate Austin Ekeler (Achillies’) on injured reserve. I’m also expecting Washington to lean on the running game more with Mariota starting.
Raiders vs Commanders SGP
- Commanders -2.5
- Under 43.5
- Jacory Croskey-Merritt anytime touchdown
Our big-ticket SGP: Finding Merit!
- While it’s been a quiet start to the season, I’m still expecting Vegas rookie rusher Ashton Jeanty to have his best game of the year and clear this modest total. The Commanders just let Packers RB Josh Jacobs run for 83 yards in Week 2, after all.
Raiders vs Commanders SGP
- Commanders -2.5
- Under 43.5
- Jacory Croskey-Merritt anytime touchdown
- Ashton Jeanty Over 54.5 rushing yards
Raiders vs Commanders game predictions
Raiders vs Commanders moneyline prediction
The Raiders have lost 16 of their past 20 games, and the Commanders have won eight of their past 10 home games. Washington has a significant rest advantage, while Vegas also has the short week with a cross-continent trip for an early game.
Raiders vs Commanders spread prediction
In addition to the highlighted straight-up records, Washington has also covered the number in four of its past five home games. I’m also anticipating a solid showing from Mariota after a whole week of first-team reps in practice.
Raiders vs Commanders Over/Under prediction
As noted, neither of these offenses has been lighting up the scoreboard through two weeks. Additionally, while I do expect Mariota to play well, there’s still a considerable downgrade in big-play potential with him behind center instead of Daniels.
Raiders vs Commanders odds
- Spread: Raiders +6.5 (-115) | Commanders -6.5 (-105)
- Moneyline: Raiders +240 | Commanders -300
- Over/Under: Over 47.5 | Under 47.5
More NFL picks and odds from Covers
Raiders vs Commanders trend to know
The Commanders have covered the first-half spread in 13 of their last 21 games for +3.91 units and a 16% ROI. Find more NFL betting trends for Raiders vs. Commanders.
How to watch Raiders vs Commanders
| Location | Northwest Stadium, Landover, MD |
| Date | Sunday, September 21, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
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