SPREAD
LV
+6.5 spread
0.4
PROJECTION
-6.1
DIFFERENCE
5.83%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
LV
+6.5 spread
Close Modal
0.4
PROJECTION
-6.1
DIFFERENCE
5.83%
EV
In terms of performance, the Miami Dolphins enter this game with a potent offense, showcasing a dynamic passing attack that has ranked among the top in the league. Their ability to stretch the field and exploit defensive weaknesses has made them a challenging opponent. Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa has been particularly effective, leveraging his accuracy and decision-making to keep drives alive and score points.. On the other side, the New England Patriots are known for their disciplined defense, which has consistently ranked among the top units. They pride themselves on limiting big plays and forcing turnovers, a strategy that has allowed them to stay competitive in games. The Patriots will need to apply pressure to Tagovailoa and disrupt the Dolphins' rhythm to have a chance in this contest.. From a betting perspective, this matchup presents intriguing opportunities. The Dolphins' offensive firepower may lead to a high-scoring affair, while the Patriots' defense could keep the game closer than expected. Bettors will want to consider the over/under line, as both teams have shown the ability to score in bunches or, conversely, to keep games low-scoring depending on matchups.. As the kickoff approaches, all eyes will be on how the Dolphins' offense aligns against the Patriots' defense. With both teams having clear strengths and weaknesses, this game promises to be a compelling showdown that could impact playoff positioning as the season progresses.
+6.5
-130
TOTAL
44.9 UNDER
PROJECTION
-7.6
DIFFERENCE
6.63%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
44.9 UNDER
PROJECTION
-7.6
DIFFERENCE
6.63%
EV
In terms of performance, the Miami Dolphins enter this game with a potent offense, showcasing a dynamic passing attack that has ranked among the top in the league. Their ability to stretch the field and exploit defensive weaknesses has made them a challenging opponent. Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa has been particularly effective, leveraging his accuracy and decision-making to keep drives alive and score points.. On the other side, the New England Patriots are known for their disciplined defense, which has consistently ranked among the top units. They pride themselves on limiting big plays and forcing turnovers, a strategy that has allowed them to stay competitive in games. The Patriots will need to apply pressure to Tagovailoa and disrupt the Dolphins' rhythm to have a chance in this contest.. From a betting perspective, this matchup presents intriguing opportunities. The Dolphins' offensive firepower may lead to a high-scoring affair, while the Patriots' defense could keep the game closer than expected. Bettors will want to consider the over/under line, as both teams have shown the ability to score in bunches or, conversely, to keep games low-scoring depending on matchups.. As the kickoff approaches, all eyes will be on how the Dolphins' offense aligns against the Patriots' defense. With both teams having clear strengths and weaknesses, this game promises to be a compelling showdown that could impact playoff positioning as the season progresses.
u52.5
-115
MONEYLINE
LV
+215 moneyline
LV
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
6.12%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
LV
+215 moneyline
Close Modal
LV
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
6.12%
EV
In terms of performance, the Miami Dolphins enter this game with a potent offense, showcasing a dynamic passing attack that has ranked among the top in the league. Their ability to stretch the field and exploit defensive weaknesses has made them a challenging opponent. Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa has been particularly effective, leveraging his accuracy and decision-making to keep drives alive and score points.. On the other side, the New England Patriots are known for their disciplined defense, which has consistently ranked among the top units. They pride themselves on limiting big plays and forcing turnovers, a strategy that has allowed them to stay competitive in games. The Patriots will need to apply pressure to Tagovailoa and disrupt the Dolphins' rhythm to have a chance in this contest.. From a betting perspective, this matchup presents intriguing opportunities. The Dolphins' offensive firepower may lead to a high-scoring affair, while the Patriots' defense could keep the game closer than expected. Bettors will want to consider the over/under line, as both teams have shown the ability to score in bunches or, conversely, to keep games low-scoring depending on matchups.. As the kickoff approaches, all eyes will be on how the Dolphins' offense aligns against the Patriots' defense. With both teams having clear strengths and weaknesses, this game promises to be a compelling showdown that could impact playoff positioning as the season progresses.
+215
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
0.46 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
6.99%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
0.46 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
6.99%
EV
The Commanders may pass less in this week's contest (and call more rushes) as a result of being be rolling with backup QB Marcus Mariota.. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is expected by the projection model to see 133.4 offensive plays called: the 2nd-most out of all the games this week.. The 3rd-most plays in the NFL have been run by the Commanders since the start of last season (a whopping 59.9 per game on average).. Since the start of last season, the feeble Raiders defense has given up a colossal 1.68 passing touchdowns per game to opposing QBs: the 5th-largest rate in the NFL.. Since the start of last season, the daunting Raiders run defense has surrendered a puny 0.74 rushing TDs per game to opposing offenses: the 9th-smallest rate in football.
+280
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
0.44 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
6.29%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
0.44 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
6.29%
EV
The Commanders may pass less in this week's contest (and call more rushes) as a result of being be rolling with backup QB Marcus Mariota.. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is expected by the projection model to see 133.4 offensive plays called: the 2nd-most out of all the games this week.. The 3rd-most plays in the NFL have been run by the Commanders since the start of last season (a whopping 59.9 per game on average).. While Deebo Samuel Sr. has been responsible for 17.4% of his team's red zone targets in games he has played since the start of last season, the leading projections forecast him to be a much bigger part of Washington's passing offense near the end zone in this game at 23.7%.. Deebo Samuel Sr.'s ball-catching skills have gotten a boost this year, with his Adjusted Catch% jumping from 63.6% to 82.0%.
+250
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
0.33 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
5.5%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
0.33 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
5.5%
EV
The Commanders may pass less in this week's contest (and call more rushes) as a result of being be rolling with backup QB Marcus Mariota.. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is expected by the projection model to see 133.4 offensive plays called: the 2nd-most out of all the games this week.. The 3rd-most plays in the NFL have been run by the Commanders since the start of last season (a whopping 59.9 per game on average).. With a remarkable 28.4% Red Zone Target Share (98th percentile) since the start of last season, Zach Ertz rates as one of the tight ends with the biggest workloads near the goal line in football.. In regards to air yards, Zach Ertz ranks in the lofty 93rd percentile among TEs since the start of last season, accruing a striking 41.0 per game.
+320
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
0.65 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
4.34%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
0.65 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
4.34%
EV
The Raiders are a 3-point underdog this week, indicating a passing game script.. Based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Raiders to pass on 59.6% of their opportunities: the 8th-greatest rate among all teams this week.. The Raiders have been the 4th-least pass-oriented team in football near the goal line (adjusted for context) this year with a 33.3% red zone pass rate.. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is anticipated by the projection model to have 133.4 offensive plays run: the 2nd-most on the slate this week.. The Commanders linebackers rank as the best unit in football since the start of last season when it comes to stopping the run.
-110
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
0.13 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
3.5%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
0.13 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
3.5%
EV
The Raiders are a 3-point underdog this week, indicating a passing game script.. Based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Raiders to pass on 59.6% of their opportunities: the 8th-greatest rate among all teams this week.. The Raiders have been the 4th-least pass-oriented team in football near the goal line (adjusted for context) this year with a 33.3% red zone pass rate.. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is anticipated by the projection model to have 133.4 offensive plays run: the 2nd-most on the slate this week.. In this contest, Geno Smith is forecasted by our trusted projection set to have the 8th-most pass attempts out of all quarterbacks with 35.9.
+800
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
0.4 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
1.97%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
0.4 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
1.97%
EV
The Raiders are a 3-point underdog this week, indicating a passing game script.. Based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Raiders to pass on 59.6% of their opportunities: the 8th-greatest rate among all teams this week.. The Raiders have been the 4th-least pass-oriented team in football near the goal line (adjusted for context) this year with a 33.3% red zone pass rate.. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is anticipated by the projection model to have 133.4 offensive plays run: the 2nd-most on the slate this week.. Jakobi Meyers has been a big part of his team's passing attack near the goal line, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 26.1% since the start of last season, which ranks in the 91st percentile among wide receivers.
+200
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
0.37 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
1.39%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
0.37 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
1.39%
EV
The Commanders may pass less in this week's contest (and call more rushes) as a result of being be rolling with backup QB Marcus Mariota.. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is expected by the projection model to see 133.4 offensive plays called: the 2nd-most out of all the games this week.. The 3rd-most plays in the NFL have been run by the Commanders since the start of last season (a whopping 59.9 per game on average).. Since the start of last season, the shaky Raiders pass defense has been gouged for a colossal 87.4% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing running backs: the 7th-highest rate in the league.. Since the start of last season, the daunting Raiders run defense has surrendered a puny 0.74 rushing TDs per game to opposing offenses: the 9th-smallest rate in football.
+185
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
0.34 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
-8.53%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
0.34 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
-8.53%
EV
The Raiders are a 3-point underdog this week, indicating a passing game script.. Based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Raiders to pass on 59.6% of their opportunities: the 8th-greatest rate among all teams this week.. The Raiders have been the 4th-least pass-oriented team in football near the goal line (adjusted for context) this year with a 33.3% red zone pass rate.. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is anticipated by the projection model to have 133.4 offensive plays run: the 2nd-most on the slate this week.. Since the start of last season, the poor Commanders defense has given up a whopping 0.47 receiving TDs per game to opposing tight ends: the 4th-worst rate in the league.
+175
RECEPTIONS MADE
4.4 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.9
DIFFERENCE
3.29%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
4.4 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.9
DIFFERENCE
3.29%
EV
The Commanders may pass less in this week's contest (and call more rushes) as a result of being be rolling with backup QB Marcus Mariota.. The Commanders rank as the 6th-most pass-focused team in the NFL (in a neutral context) this year with a 66.5% pass rate.. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is expected by the projection model to see 133.4 offensive plays called: the 2nd-most out of all the games this week.. The 3rd-most plays in the NFL have been run by the Commanders since the start of last season (a whopping 59.9 per game on average).. With a remarkable 4.0 adjusted receptions per game (90th percentile) since the start of last season, Zach Ertz ranks among the leading pass-game tight ends in the league.
o3.5
-123
RECEPTIONS MADE
2.4 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.2
DIFFERENCE
1.99%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
2.4 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.2
DIFFERENCE
1.99%
EV
Opposing quarterbacks teams have been hesitant to test the pass defense of the Washington Commanders, totaling the 7th-fewest attempts in the league (a lowly 30.6 per game) since the start of last season.. Since the start of last season, the fierce Commanders defense has conceded a meager 79.5% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing RBs: the 5th-lowest rate in the NFL.
u2.5
-117
RECEPTIONS MADE
5.1 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.6
DIFFERENCE
1.16%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
5.1 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.6
DIFFERENCE
1.16%
EV
The Commanders may pass less in this week's contest (and call more rushes) as a result of being be rolling with backup QB Marcus Mariota.. The Commanders rank as the 6th-most pass-focused team in the NFL (in a neutral context) this year with a 66.5% pass rate.. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is expected by the projection model to see 133.4 offensive plays called: the 2nd-most out of all the games this week.. The 3rd-most plays in the NFL have been run by the Commanders since the start of last season (a whopping 59.9 per game on average).. Deebo Samuel Sr. checks in as one of the leading WRs in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 4.1 adjusted receptions per game while grading out in the 75th percentile.
o4.5
-120
RECEPTIONS MADE
1.5 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.0
DIFFERENCE
-2.8%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 2 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
1.5 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.0
DIFFERENCE
-2.8%
EV
With a 3-point advantage, the Commanders are favored this week, suggesting more of an emphasis on running than their usual game plan.
u1.5
-130
RECEPTIONS MADE
5.6 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.1
DIFFERENCE
-5.31%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
5.6 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.1
DIFFERENCE
-5.31%
EV
The Raiders are a 3-point underdog this week, indicating a passing game script.. Based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Raiders to pass on 59.6% of their opportunities: the 8th-greatest rate among all teams this week.. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is anticipated by the projection model to have 133.4 offensive plays run: the 2nd-most on the slate this week.. With a high 94.9% Route Participation Rate (94th percentile) since the start of last season, Jakobi Meyers places among the wideouts with the most usage in the league.. Jakobi Meyers profiles as one of the best wide receivers in the league since the start of last season, averaging an outstanding 5.9 adjusted catches per game while checking in at the 95th percentile.
o5.5
-109
RECEPTIONS MADE
5.6 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.1
DIFFERENCE
-7.51%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
5.6 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.1
DIFFERENCE
-7.51%
EV
The Raiders are a 3-point underdog this week, indicating a passing game script.. Based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Raiders to pass on 59.7% of their opportunities: the 8th-greatest rate among all teams this week.. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is anticipated by the projection model to have 133.4 offensive plays run: the 2nd-most on the slate this week.. When it comes to safeties in covering pass-catchers, Washington's group of safeties has been easily exploitable since the start of last season, projecting as the 6th-worst in football.
o5.5
-108
PASSING TOUCHDOWNS
1.1 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.4
DIFFERENCE
3.52%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
1.1 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.4
DIFFERENCE
3.52%
EV
Opposing quarterbacks teams have been hesitant to test the pass defense of the Washington Commanders, totaling the 7th-fewest attempts in the league (a lowly 30.6 per game) since the start of last season.. Geno Smith's passing accuracy has diminished this season, with his Adjusted Completion% shrinking from 70.1% to 62.9%.. Since the start of last season, the tough Washington Commanders defense has conceded a measly 68.2% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing quarterbacks: the 6th-best rate in the NFL.
u1.5
-148
PASSING TOUCHDOWNS
1.3 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.2
DIFFERENCE
-4.61%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
1.3 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.2
DIFFERENCE
-4.61%
EV
With a 3-point advantage, the Commanders are favored this week, suggesting more of an emphasis on running than their usual game plan.. The leading projections forecast the Commanders to be the 6th-least pass-focused offense in football near the end zone (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 53.2% red zone pass rate.
u1.5
-190
PASSING TOUCHDOWNS
1.4 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.1
DIFFERENCE
-7.13%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
1.4 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.1
DIFFERENCE
-7.13%
EV
With a 3.5-point advantage, the Commanders are favored this week, suggesting more of an emphasis on running than their usual game plan.
u1.5
-190
PASSING COMPLETIONS
22.1 UNDER
PROJECTION
-1.4
DIFFERENCE
4.34%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds Caesars
Best Odds
22.1 UNDER
PROJECTION
-1.4
DIFFERENCE
4.34%
EV
Opposing quarterbacks teams have been hesitant to test the pass defense of the Washington Commanders, totaling the 7th-fewest attempts in the league (a lowly 30.6 per game) since the start of last season.. Geno Smith's passing accuracy has diminished this season, with his Adjusted Completion% shrinking from 70.1% to 62.9%.. Since the start of last season, the tough Washington Commanders defense has conceded a measly 68.2% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing quarterbacks: the 6th-best rate in the NFL.
u23.5
-102
PASSING COMPLETIONS
21.6 OVER
PROJECTION
+2.1
DIFFERENCE
3.72%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
21.6 OVER
PROJECTION
+2.1
DIFFERENCE
3.72%
EV
The Commanders may pass less in this week's contest (and call more rushes) as a result of being be rolling with backup QB Marcus Mariota.. The Commanders rank as the 6th-most pass-focused team in the NFL (in a neutral context) this year with a 66.5% pass rate.. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is expected by the projection model to see 133.4 offensive plays called: the 2nd-most out of all the games this week.. The 3rd-most plays in the NFL have been run by the Commanders since the start of last season (a whopping 59.9 per game on average).. When it comes to safeties in defending receivers, Las Vegas's group of safeties has been terrible since the start of last season, grading out as the 5th-worst in football.
o19.5
-122
PASSING ATTEMPTS
33.2 OVER
PROJECTION
+2.7
DIFFERENCE
5.51%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
33.2 OVER
PROJECTION
+2.7
DIFFERENCE
5.51%
EV
The Commanders may pass less in this week's contest (and call more rushes) as a result of being be rolling with backup QB Marcus Mariota.. The Commanders rank as the 6th-most pass-focused team in the NFL (in a neutral context) this year with a 66.5% pass rate.. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is expected by the projection model to see 133.4 offensive plays called: the 2nd-most out of all the games this week.. The 3rd-most plays in the NFL have been run by the Commanders since the start of last season (a whopping 59.9 per game on average).
o29.5
-114
PASSING ATTEMPTS
34.1 UNDER
PROJECTION
-1.4
DIFFERENCE
2.95%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
34.1 UNDER
PROJECTION
-1.4
DIFFERENCE
2.95%
EV
Opposing quarterbacks teams have been hesitant to test the pass defense of the Washington Commanders, totaling the 7th-fewest attempts in the league (a lowly 30.6 per game) since the start of last season.
u35.5
-110
PASSING YARDS
229.8 OVER
PROJECTION
+55.3
DIFFERENCE
7.31%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
229.8 OVER
PROJECTION
+55.3
DIFFERENCE
7.31%
EV
The Commanders may pass less in this week's contest (and call more rushes) as a result of being be rolling with backup QB Marcus Mariota.. The Commanders rank as the 6th-most pass-focused team in the NFL (in a neutral context) this year with a 66.5% pass rate.. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is expected by the projection model to see 133.4 offensive plays called: the 2nd-most out of all the games this week.. The 3rd-most plays in the NFL have been run by the Commanders since the start of last season (a whopping 59.9 per game on average).. When it comes to safeties in defending receivers, Las Vegas's group of safeties has been terrible since the start of last season, grading out as the 5th-worst in football.
o174.5
-114
PASSING YARDS
241.6 UNDER
PROJECTION
-7.9
DIFFERENCE
4.95%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
241.6 UNDER
PROJECTION
-7.9
DIFFERENCE
4.95%
EV
Opposing quarterbacks teams have been hesitant to test the pass defense of the Washington Commanders, totaling the 7th-fewest attempts in the league (a lowly 30.6 per game) since the start of last season.. Geno Smith's passing accuracy has diminished this season, with his Adjusted Completion% shrinking from 70.1% to 62.9%.. Since the start of last season, the fierce Commanders defense has yielded a mere 198.0 adjusted yards per game through the air to opposing QBs: the 4th-best in the league.. Since the start of last season, the tough Washington Commanders defense has conceded a measly 68.2% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing quarterbacks: the 6th-best rate in the NFL.
u249.5
-114
INTERCEPTIONS THROWN
0.4 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.1
DIFFERENCE
5.46%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
0.4 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.1
DIFFERENCE
5.46%
EV
Opposing quarterbacks teams have been hesitant to test the pass defense of the Washington Commanders, totaling the 7th-fewest attempts in the league (a lowly 30.6 per game) since the start of last season.
u0.5
+110
INTERCEPTIONS THROWN
1.0 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.5
DIFFERENCE
2.57%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
1.0 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.5
DIFFERENCE
2.57%
EV
The Commanders may pass less in this week's contest (and call more rushes) as a result of being be rolling with backup QB Marcus Mariota.. The Commanders rank as the 6th-most pass-focused team in the NFL (in a neutral context) this year with a 66.5% pass rate.. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is expected by the projection model to see 133.4 offensive plays called: the 2nd-most out of all the games this week.. The 3rd-most plays in the NFL have been run by the Commanders since the start of last season (a whopping 59.9 per game on average).. When it comes to safeties in defending receivers, Las Vegas's group of safeties has been terrible since the start of last season, grading out as the 5th-worst in football.
o0.5
-114
RECEIVING YARDS
44.1 OVER
PROJECTION
+17.6
DIFFERENCE
7.3%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
44.1 OVER
PROJECTION
+17.6
DIFFERENCE
7.3%
EV
The Commanders may pass less in this week's contest (and call more rushes) as a result of being be rolling with backup QB Marcus Mariota.. The Commanders rank as the 6th-most pass-focused team in the NFL (in a neutral context) this year with a 66.5% pass rate.. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is expected by the projection model to see 133.4 offensive plays called: the 2nd-most out of all the games this week.. The 3rd-most plays in the NFL have been run by the Commanders since the start of last season (a whopping 59.9 per game on average).. Since the start of last season, the shaky Raiders defense has conceded a monstrous 56.0 adjusted receiving yards per game to opposing tight ends: the 5th-worst in football.
o26.5
-114
RECEIVING YARDS
59.1 OVER
PROJECTION
+21.6
DIFFERENCE
7.23%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
59.1 OVER
PROJECTION
+21.6
DIFFERENCE
7.23%
EV
The Commanders may pass less in this week's contest (and call more rushes) as a result of being be rolling with backup QB Marcus Mariota.. The Commanders rank as the 6th-most pass-focused team in the NFL (in a neutral context) this year with a 66.5% pass rate.. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is expected by the projection model to see 133.4 offensive plays called: the 2nd-most out of all the games this week.. The 3rd-most plays in the NFL have been run by the Commanders since the start of last season (a whopping 59.9 per game on average).. The projections expect Deebo Samuel Sr. to accumulate 8.5 targets in this game, on balance, putting him in the 92nd percentile among wideouts.
o37.5
-118
RECEIVING YARDS
10.5 OVER
PROJECTION
+4.0
DIFFERENCE
6.83%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
10.5 OVER
PROJECTION
+4.0
DIFFERENCE
6.83%
EV
The Commanders may pass less in this week's contest (and call more rushes) as a result of being be rolling with backup QB Marcus Mariota.. The Commanders rank as the 6th-most pass-focused team in the NFL (in a neutral context) this year with a 66.5% pass rate.. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is expected by the projection model to see 133.4 offensive plays called: the 2nd-most out of all the games this week.. The 3rd-most plays in the NFL have been run by the Commanders since the start of last season (a whopping 59.9 per game on average).. Since the start of last season, the shaky Raiders pass defense has been gouged for a colossal 87.4% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing running backs: the 7th-highest rate in the league.
o5.5
-119
RECEIVING YARDS
69.5 OVER
PROJECTION
+6.0
DIFFERENCE
5.75%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
69.5 OVER
PROJECTION
+6.0
DIFFERENCE
5.75%
EV
The Raiders are a 3-point underdog this week, indicating a passing game script.. Based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Raiders to pass on 59.6% of their opportunities: the 8th-greatest rate among all teams this week.. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is anticipated by the projection model to have 133.4 offensive plays run: the 2nd-most on the slate this week.. With a high 94.9% Route Participation Rate (94th percentile) since the start of last season, Jakobi Meyers places among the wideouts with the most usage in the league.. In this week's contest, Jakobi Meyers is predicted by the projections to rank in the 95th percentile when it comes to wideouts with 9.2 targets.
o61.5
-113
RECEIVING YARDS
16.1 OVER
PROJECTION
+2.6
DIFFERENCE
5.26%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
16.1 OVER
PROJECTION
+2.6
DIFFERENCE
5.26%
EV
The Raiders are a 3-point underdog this week, indicating a passing game script.. Based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Raiders to pass on 59.6% of their opportunities: the 8th-greatest rate among all teams this week.. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is anticipated by the projection model to have 133.4 offensive plays run: the 2nd-most on the slate this week.. When it comes to safeties in covering pass-catchers, Washington's group of safeties has been easily exploitable since the start of last season, projecting as the 6th-worst in football.
o12.5
-110
RECEIVING YARDS
62.2 OVER
PROJECTION
+2.7
DIFFERENCE
3.6%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
62.2 OVER
PROJECTION
+2.7
DIFFERENCE
3.6%
EV
The Raiders are a 3-point underdog this week, indicating a passing game script.. Based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Raiders to pass on 59.6% of their opportunities: the 8th-greatest rate among all teams this week.. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is anticipated by the projection model to have 133.4 offensive plays run: the 2nd-most on the slate this week.. Since the start of last season, the weak Commanders defense has surrendered the 4th-most adjusted yards-per-target in the NFL to opposing TEs: a staggering 8.64 yards.. When it comes to safeties in covering pass-catchers, Washington's group of safeties has been easily exploitable since the start of last season, projecting as the 6th-worst in football.
o57.5
-115
RUSHING YARDS
67.9 OVER
PROJECTION
+10.4
DIFFERENCE
6.83%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
67.9 OVER
PROJECTION
+10.4
DIFFERENCE
6.83%
EV
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is anticipated by the projection model to have 133.4 offensive plays run: the 2nd-most on the slate this week.. Opposing teams have run for the 7th-most adjusted yards in the league (130 per game) versus the Commanders defense since the start of last season.
o57.5
-114
RUSHING YARDS
52.5 OVER
PROJECTION
+8.0
DIFFERENCE
6.63%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
52.5 OVER
PROJECTION
+8.0
DIFFERENCE
6.63%
EV
With a 3-point advantage, the Commanders are favored this week, suggesting more of an emphasis on running than their usual game plan.. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is expected by the projection model to see 133.4 offensive plays called: the 2nd-most out of all the games this week.. The 3rd-most plays in the NFL have been run by the Commanders since the start of last season (a whopping 59.9 per game on average).
o44.5
-114
RUSHING YARDS
29.4 OVER
PROJECTION
+2.9
DIFFERENCE
4.77%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
29.4 OVER
PROJECTION
+2.9
DIFFERENCE
4.77%
EV
With a 3-point advantage, the Commanders are favored this week, suggesting more of an emphasis on running than their usual game plan.. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is expected by the projection model to see 133.4 offensive plays called: the 2nd-most out of all the games this week.. The 3rd-most plays in the NFL have been run by the Commanders since the start of last season (a whopping 59.9 per game on average).. In this week's contest, Marcus Mariota is expected by the projection model to notch the fewest rush attempts among all QBs with 6.8.
o26.5
-118
RUSHING ATTEMPTS
3.7 OVER
PROJECTION
+1.2
DIFFERENCE
3.74%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
3.7 OVER
PROJECTION
+1.2
DIFFERENCE
3.74%
EV
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is anticipated by the projection model to have 133.4 offensive plays run: the 2nd-most on the slate this week.
o2.5
-150
RUSHING YARDS
14.9 OVER
PROJECTION
+1.4
DIFFERENCE
3.29%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
14.9 OVER
PROJECTION
+1.4
DIFFERENCE
3.29%
EV
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is anticipated by the projection model to have 133.4 offensive plays run: the 2nd-most on the slate this week.. Geno Smith rates as one of the leading quarterbacks in the NFL at generating extra ground yardage, averaging a fantastic 5.00 yards-after-contact this year while checking in at the 100th percentile.. Opposing teams have run for the 7th-most adjusted yards in the league (130 per game) versus the Commanders defense since the start of last season.
o10.5
-110
RUSHING ATTEMPTS
16.8 OVER
PROJECTION
+1.3
DIFFERENCE
2.56%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
16.8 OVER
PROJECTION
+1.3
DIFFERENCE
2.56%
EV
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is anticipated by the projection model to have 133.4 offensive plays run: the 2nd-most on the slate this week.
o15.5
-114
RUSHING ATTEMPTS
12.3 UNDER
PROJECTION
-1.2
DIFFERENCE
2.52%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
12.3 UNDER
PROJECTION
-1.2
DIFFERENCE
2.52%
EV
The Commanders may pass less in this week's contest (and call more rushes) as a result of being be rolling with backup QB Marcus Mariota.. With a 33.5% rate of rushing the ball (in a neutral context) this year, the 6th-least run-heavy team in the league has been the Commanders.. The Las Vegas Raiders linebackers rank as the 7th-best LB corps in football since the start of last season in regard to stopping the run.
u13.5
-140
RUSHING ATTEMPTS
6.6 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.1
DIFFERENCE
-9.21%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
6.6 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.1
DIFFERENCE
-9.21%
EV
With a 3-point advantage, the Commanders are favored this week, suggesting more of an emphasis on running than their usual game plan.. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is expected by the projection model to see 133.4 offensive plays called: the 2nd-most out of all the games this week.. The 3rd-most plays in the NFL have been run by the Commanders since the start of last season (a whopping 59.9 per game on average).. In this week's contest, Marcus Mariota is expected by the projection model to notch the fewest rush attempts among all QBs with 6.8.
o6.5
-118