We split 8–8 against the spread last week, but my Week 18 NFL picks bring maximum urgency with postseason implications across the board.
Some teams are playing for seeding, others for survival, and a few have nothing at stake — a key factor at the betting window.
Week 18 NFL picks against the spread
| Matchup | Pick |
|---|---|
 Panthers vs  Buccaneers |
(-3) |
 Seahawks vs  49ers |
(-1.5) |
 Saints vs  Falcons |
(-3) |
 Browns vs  Bengals |
(-7.5) |
 Cowboys vs  Giants |
(+4) |
 Packers vs  Vikings |
(-5.5) |
 Colts vs  Texans |
(-10.5) |
 Titans vs  Jaguars |
(-11.5) |
 Chiefs vs  Raiders |
(-5.5) |
 Lions vs  Bears |
(-2.5) |
 Chargers vs  Broncos |
(+11.5) |
 Dolphins vs  Patriots |
(-10.5) |
 Commanders vs  Eagles |
(-7) |
 Cardinals vs  Rams |
(+7.5) |
 Jets vs  Bills |
(-7.5) |
 Ravens vs  Steelers |
(-3.5) |
Lines courtesy of FanDuel as of 12-30.
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Expert Week 18 NFL ATS picks
Panthers vs. Buccaneers: Panthers (-3)
The Buccaneers have dropped seven of their last eight games, yet have a chance to win the division. I cannot, in good faith, back that to happen. The Panthers' defense should do enough to win this game.
Seahawks vs. 49ers: Seahawks (-1.5)
The NFC West division title is at stake here, so give me the team that's been more consistent over the first 17 weeks of the season, and the one with the much better defense.
Saints vs. Falcons: Falcons (-3)
I'm not entirely sure why the Falcons keep winning, but they've won three straight and have already screwed themselves out of a decent draft pick. Why not make it four on the trot vs. a bad Saints team?
Browns vs. Bengals: Bengals (-7.5)
Joe Burrow or Shedeur Sanders? I know my answer.
Cowboys vs. Giants: Giants (+4)
This game should feature plenty of points, so I'll take the underdog here in a game that may come down to the last possession.
Packers vs. Vikings: Vikings (-5.5)
The Packers may be without Jordan Love and Malik Willis for this game, which leaves Clayton Tune under center. That's not ideal. I'll take Max Brosmer in this spot with plenty of talent surrounding him.
Colts vs. Texans: Texans (-10.5)
The Texans' defense will likely eat Philip Rivers alive. Lay the points and don't think twice.
Titans vs. Jaguars: Jaguars (-11.5)
The Jaguars are one win away from clinching the AFC South. That's not a statement I thought I'd write this year, but c'est la vie.
Chiefs vs. Raiders: Chiefs (-5.5)
I want nothing to do with the Raiders, and neither should you. They stink, and the Chiefs should win this by a touchdown.
Lions vs. Bears: Bears (-2.5)
The Bears are playing for something, the Lions are not. The offense should do enough to beat an uninterested Lions squad at home.
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Chargers vs. Broncos: Chargers (+11.5)
I still don't know if the Broncos are good or not. While they may yet secure the No. 1 seed in the AFC, the Chargers have enough offense to keep this one close.
Dolphins vs. Patriots: Patriots (-10.5)
The Patriots have beaten up on bad teams all season, and the Miami Dolphins fit the bill.
Commanders vs. Eagles: Eagles (-7)
The Eagles are fighting for the No. 2 seed, so this game should have their full attention.
Cardinals vs. Rams: Cardinals (+7.5)
The Rams lost their outside chance at the division and, as such, are locked into a Wild-Card spot. With Matthew Stafford's MVP hopes all but dashed, I expect a vanilla game plan and the Cardinals to keep things close.
Jets vs. Bills: Bills (-7.5)
The Bills were a two-point conversion away from beating the Eagles despite playing poorly for 55 of the 60 minutes. I expect a much better effort here as they gear up for a Wild Card game next week.
Ravens vs. Steelers: Ravens (-3.5)
There are two reasons I am picking the Ravens to cover. The first reason is I believe they're the better team from top to bottom. The second, I'm sitting on a "Steelers to miss the playoffs" ticket, which I would love to cash.
My NFL ATS record is 118-120-2 this season for -9 units.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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