The Miami Dolphins are beginning to pick it up after Tua Tagovailoa's return from injury and will take a three-game winning streak into Lambeau Field on Thanksgiving as they look for a critical win over the Green Bay Packers.
Jordan Love, who’s led the Packers to consecutive wins and is fresh off a dismantling of the San Francisco 49ers’ vaunted defense, stands in their way. Let’s have a look at some of the Jordan Love player prop picks for Thanksgiving Day, November 28.
Jordan Love player prop picks
- Best bet
Jordan Love Under 0.5 interceptions
(-102 at FanDuel) - SGP Pick
Love Over 240.5 passing yards
Love Under 1.5 passing TDs
Love Under 6.5 rushing yards
(+708 at FanDuel)
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
Jordan Love TNF prop pick
My best bet
Under 0.5 interceptions (-102 at FanDuel)
My analysis
Jordan Love had been on a tough run of form when it comes to protecting the football until last week against the 49ers. He snapped a run of eight straight games with an interception, and I believe he’s ready to start a new, positive streak tonight.
The Miami Dolphins grade out as the 10th-worst team in coverage according to Pro Football Focus, and they will continue to suffer defeats in the secondary as long as corner Kendall Fuller remains sidelined. Without him, there’s a glaring soft spot, and it should bring this team’s issues with creating game-changing plays to light.
Miami ranks 17th in interception rate. On top of that, it’s been horrid in getting to the quarterback with a sack rate just outside the bottom five of the league.
That should give the Green Bay Packers quarterback plenty of time in the pocket to make the correct decisions, and — as we’ll touch on in a moment — there shouldn’t be an overwhelming need to throw the ball given Miami’s issues defending the run.
On top of this all, Love ranks just 17th among all quarterbacks in turnover-worthy play rate according to PFF, so perhaps his turnover numbers are a bit unbecoming of the passer he’s been.
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Jordan Love TNF same-game parlay
Jordan Love Over 240.5 passing yards
Jordan Love Under 1.5 passing touchdowns
Jordan Love Under 6.5 rushing yards
Without the ability to throw the interception prop into our SGP, we’ll have to get creative, and the game's narrative should fit this incredibly juicy combination perfectly.
The Under on Love’s passing total was calling my name here, but I do think Green Bay will ultimately throw the ball enough for the young signal-caller to get home on this number for a third time in four games.
Three of the last five quarterbacks to face this injured Dolphins secondary have gone well over 240 yards, and all five have thrown the ball at least 36 times. That would be an unseasonably busy day for Love, so there is probably some room here for Love to grow from his 163-yard outing last week.
I don’t think the Packers will be overly inclined to pass the ball near the goal line, however, judging by Love’s three passing touchdowns in the last four games. The Dolphins also have been rather stingy in terms of keeping their opponents out of the end zone, ranking seventh in touchdowns allowed per game.
I’m also ready to short Love’s rushing total given the weak state of this Dolphins pass rush. He’ll have no reason to run and has eclipsed two yards on the ground just once in the last five games.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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