The NFL heads back to London for the second consecutive week when the Jacksonville Jaguars take on the Chicago Bears.
Jacksonville has the worst passing defense in the NFL and my Jaguars vs. Bears predictions surrounding NFL prop picks see Chicago taking advantage of some mismatches.
Here are my favorite NFL picks for Sunday, October 13.
Jaguars vs Bears props
- Williams Under 0.5 interceptions (-105 at BetMGM)
- Moore Over 65.5 receiving yards (-120 at BetMGM)
- Edwards Under 5.5 solo tackles (-130 at BetMGM)
Read full analysis of each pick.
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Jaguars vs Bears props
Prop bet #1: Caleb Williams Under 0.5 interceptions
Rookie Caleb Williams has settled down and found his groove in the last two weeks following his rocky start. Last week, he lit up the scoreboard with 304 yards on 20-for-29 passing with no picks against the Carolina Panthers, marking his second-straight pickless game.
He now faces the Jacksonville Jaguars NFL-worst passing defense. Not only have they allowed the most yards, but they have zero interceptions in five games this year. A big reason for their inability to force mistakes by opposing quarterbacks is their lack of pressure — 29th in the NFL with a 26.4% pressure rate.
Williams has a 69.7% completion percentage when not facing pressure. We saw a glimpse of the superstar talent last week against a bad Panthers defense and now he gets an even worse defense to face off with. I like his chances of not making a mistake and protecting the ball while still making big plays.
Prop bet #2: D.J. Moore Over 65.5 receiving yards
Jacksonville's defense allows a whopping 287.8 passing yards per game this season, including a league-worst 171.4 yards after catch per game.
The biggest benefactor from that stat will be wideout D.J. Moore. Twenty-five of his 42 targets this season have been 10 yards or less down the field. He's caught 21 of those 25 targets and converted that into 116 yards after catch (5.5 yac).
The Jaguars have really struggled with similar-type receivers on opposing teams this season, allowing 69+ receiving yards to Jaylen Waddle, Tyreek Hill, De’Von Achane, Jerry Jeudy, Khalil Shakir, Stefon Diggs, Nico Collins, Alec Pierce, and Josh Downs. I expect Moore to be added to that list on Sunday.
Prop bet #3: T.J. Edwards Under 5.5 solo tackles
T.J. Edwards is the team leader for the Chicago Bears in both solo and combined tackles and assists. However, numbers from the first two weeks inflate his totals. Since Week 2, he has only eight solo tackles and nine assists in three games.
His Under 8.5 tackles + assists is also a solid option here, but two weeks ago, Edwards had only three solo tackles and six assists to go Over this total. I feel much safer just taking the Under on solo tackles, which has gone well Under this total in each of the last three games.
Edwards also gets most of his tackles when his team is trailing because the opponent is running the ball. The Jaguars have a 61.5% pass-play percentage on offense, which ranks eighth in the NFL. The Bears are also favored in this game and the game script should work out in favor of playing this Under.
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