The Minnesota Vikings escaped with a win in Week 1, and now they’ll look to further build their passing attack, which is centered around rookie quarterback J.J. McCarthy and superstar wide receiver Justin Jefferson.
We’ll get into the best way to bet on the Justin Jefferson odds, as the star receiver will be stepping into a much friendlier matchup against the Atlanta Falcons.
Let’s get into our best NFL picks for Vikings vs. Falcons on Sunday, September 14.
Justin Jefferson prop pick
Justin Jefferson best bet: Over 5.5 receptions (-120 at FanDuel)
If there was any doubt that Kevin O’Connell was going to change up his offense following the departure of Sam Darnold, that’s all put to bed at this point.
The Minnesota Vikings threw exactly zero checkdown passes — the only team to do so last week — and they also sat fourth-highest in first-read rate. That means rookie quarterback J.J. McCarthy is being protected somewhat by his playcaller, but it also shows the team doesn’t fear him airing it out a little.
Now, McCarthy did launch the sixth-fewest passing attempts of 20 or more air yards — throwing just two all night — so I want to keep the focus somewhat close to the line of scrimmage.
That’s where Justin Jefferson will come in.
The superstar wideout caught a hefty 72% of the passes thrown his way in short yardage last year and finished second on the team in targets to Jalen Nailor.
Jefferson should be in for a much different game than his season opener against the Bears. He'll be matched up with the ineffective Mike Hughes, who was ranked 56th of 83 corners by PFF last week.
I expect O’Connell to look to get Jefferson the ball early and often in a soft matchup with the Atlanta Falcons’ secondary, and their early-season tendencies would certainly back that up.
Justin Jefferson same-game parlay
Justin Jefferson Over 5.5 receptions
Justin Jefferson 100+ receiving yards
T.J. Hockenson 5+ receptions
Jefferson is set to face a Falcons team that lacks talent in the secondary and is coming off getting tormented by the pass in 2024-25.
With that, I have to ratchet up this parlay to predict Jefferson’s first 100-yard game of the year, after topping the 100+ mark five times last season.
I also expect McCarthy to attack the middle of the field, as many of Atlanta’s linebackers struggled in coverage last week.
T.J. Hockenson caught three of four targets last week against Chicago, but the passing attack clearly grew as the game went on, and the Vikings tight end should pick up where he left off.
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