Expert Touchdown Picks for NFL Week 2

The opening week saw a plethora of players find paydirt, and we're back with NFL expert touchdown picks for Week 2.

Our crew has come together to provide a TD play for every game on Sunday, Sept. 20, as well as Monday Night Football.

Can't get enough? Head over to Josh Inglis' anytime touchdown picks article for more!

NFL touchdown picks for Week 2

For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, please see our odds calculator.

Game	Pick	Probability
PHI vs TEN	Saquon Barkley	49%
MIN vs CHI	Colston Loveland	36%
PIT vs NE	DK Metcalf	24%
GB vs NYJ	Breece Hall	47%
NO vs BAL	Derrick Henry 2+ TDs	38%
CIN vs HOU	Chase Brown - No	59%
CLE vs TB	Bucky Irving	55%
CAR vs ATL	Drake London	37%
LV vs LAC	Ashton Jeanty	27%
JAX vs DEN	Bhayshul Tuten	35%
MIA vs SF	Mike Evans	43%
SEA vs ARI	Rashid Shaheed	21%
WAS vs DAL	CeeDee Lamb	45%
IND vs KC	Rashee Rice	37%
NYG vs LAR	Isaiah Likely	27%

Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.

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Expert NFL touchdown picks for Week 2

Eagles vs Titans: Saquon Barkley

After being held out of the end zone in Week 1, I’m anticipating Eagles running back Saquon Barkley scoring against the Titans.

Tennessee finished 28th in run defense DVOA and 24th in PFF run defense grade while allowing 142 rushing yards to backs in the season opener, and now they face an elite offensive line that ranked 10th in run block win rate last week.

Of course, Barkley also handled 33.8% of the touches and 48.3% of the carries inside the red zone last year.

Check out Neil Parker's full Eagles vs. Titans predictions.

Vikings vs Bears: Colston Loveland

Even though Colston Loveland is Chicago's best pass-catcher, he didn't have a single catch last week. I'm expecting Williams to get his tight end more involved Sunday because the spine of Minnesota's defense is weak in coverage.

Per Pro Football Focus (PFF), Vikings LB Eric Wilson had the worst pass-coverage grade in Week 1 among 66 qualified linebackers. Minnesota safety Josh Metellus had the third-worst pass-coverage grade last week among 80 safeties. 

Check out Geoff Clark's full Vikings vs. Bears predictions.

Steelers vs Patriots: DK Metcalf

This is a fair number for Pittsburgh wide receiver DK Metcalf to find the end zone. He paced the Steelers in targets with a 27% share in Week 1, and he also garnered a respectable 28.6% of red-zone touches in 2025.

Additionally, the 6-foot-4 Metcalf has a notable size advantage over the New England secondary, and I expect McCarthy to create opportunities for his go-to receiver to avoid being blanketed by Patriots star shadow cornerback Christian Gonzalez.

Check out Geoff Clark's full Steelers vs. Patriots predictions.

Packers vs Jets: Breece Hall

Green Bay looks to be average at best against the run again this year. The Packers posted a -0.05 EPA against the run in 2025, and played to that same number against the Vikings.

But the real value here comes from how Breece Hall is used in the New York offense. The Jets went to their running back 22 times on the ground in Week 1, while also getting him two catches in the passing game. 

Check out Ed Scimia's full Packers vs. Jets predictions.

Saints vs Ravens: Derrick Henry 2+ touchdowns

Obviously, this is more of a sprinkle because of the payout, but I'd take Derrick Henry to score at least two touchdowns up to 35%.

Henry has scored 2+ touchdowns in 12 of his 37 career regular-season and playoff games with Baltimore. He rushed for three touchdowns against the Indianapolis Colts last week, and Gibbs scored twice vs. New Orleans. 

Also, WR Zay Flowers has missed practice a couple of times this week, so the Ravens might have to lean on Henry more in this game. Finally, there isn't a better goal-line back in the league than Henry. 

Check out Geoff Clark's full Saints vs. Ravens predictions.

Bengals vs Texans: Chase Brown anytime TD - No

It's pretty awesome that Kalshi allows us to take No on Cincy RB Chase Brown to score an anytime touchdown. I'm capitalizing on this opportunity because Houston's defense is nasty, and Brown has scored a touchdown in 17 of his 46 career games. 

Furthermore, Pro Football Focus ranked Cincinnati's offensive line 28th in run-blocking grade in Week 1, and the Texans had the second-best run defense grade. Lastly, this prop fits the script I've written for this game, which is a low-scoring affair. 

Check out Geoff Clark's full Bengals vs. Texans predictions.

Browns vs Buccaneers: Bucky Irving

Bucky Irving is a true Swiss Army knife for this Bucs team. He found the end zone in Week 1 as he rushed for 45 yards on eight carries while also having seven receptions.

Irving can do it all offensively, and his role as a back and pass-catcher gives him multiple paths to another touchdown on Sunday afternoon.

Check out Quinn Allen's full Browns vs. Buccaneers predictions.

Panthers vs Falcons: Drake London

Drake London had five 100-yard games in an eight-week stretch with Penix throwing to him last season and accounted for three-quarters of Atlanta’s end-zone targets over that span. London has also scored a career-best four touchdowns in eight career games against the Panthers.

Check out Shawn Krest's full Panthers vs. Falcons predictions.

Raiders vs Chargers: Ashton Jeanty

Coming off 10 touchdowns in his rookie year, Ashton Jeanty is primed to surpass that total in Kubiak’s offense, thanks in part to the Raiders’ improvements up front.

Running behind Tyler Linderbaum, Kolton Miller and DJ Glaze, Jeanty should get red zone opportunities at SoFi Stadium, and it’s not as if Kirk Cousins is a big threat to vulture goal-line carries.

Meanwhile, the Chargers gave up 116 yards on the ground in Week 1, including a TD for Cardinals running back Jeremiyah Love.

Check out Tom Oldfield's full Raiders vs. Chargers predictions.

Jaguars vs Broncos: Bhayshul Tuten

I’m back at the well with Bhayshul Tuten here. While Rodriguez led the Jags in red-zone carries last week, it really can’t be overstated how much more dangerous Tuten looked with the ball in his hands.

We might still see Rodriguez doing goal-line work, but with his speed, agility, and elite tackle-breaking skills, it’s Tuten who is more likely to find the end zone. Don’t forget that this Broncos defense gave up two touchdowns to Kenneth Walker this past Monday.

Check out Sam Farley's full Jaguars vs. Broncos predictions.

Dolphins vs 49ers: Mike Evans

Mike Evans caught one of Brock Purdy's three touchdown passes in Week 1 against the Rams. He tied for the team lead in targets among wideouts and is San Francisco's best red zone target at 6-foot-5.

Evans has caught 11+ touchdowns in six different NFL seasons since entering the league in 2014 and could be on track for a seventh such campaign if he stays healthy in 2026.

Check out Geoff Clark's full Dolphins vs. 49ers predictions.

Seahawks vs Cardinals: Rashid Shaheed

I'm willing to invest in Seattle wide receiver Rashid Shaheed's anytime touchdown prop up to 25%, and it's currently trading at 21%.

Shaheed is a two-time Pro Bowler as a return specialist and can score in four different ways. He has 17 total touchdowns in 52 career games, which equals 32.7%. Shaheed has 12 receiving touchdowns, three punt-return scores, one rushing touchdown, and one kick-return touchdown.

He scored twice for the Seahawks last season, once on a punt return and once on a kick return in the playoffs. I'm not investing a big part of my bankroll in this prop, but I'd rather take a long shot in a game that I'm projecting to be low-scoring.

Check out Geoff Clark's full Seahawks vs. Cardinals predictions.

Commanders vs Cowboys: CeeDee Lamb

The reason I gravitate to CeeDee Lamb over Pickens in Week 2 is Washington’s new defensive coordinator Daronte Jones and his blitz-happy approach. He heated up the QB at the fifth-highest rate in Week 1 (37.5% up from 23.5% in 2025).
 
Dak Prescott is exceptional at recognizing and exposing the blitz, most often finding Lamb on quick reads for yards after the catch. 

Lamb has six touchdowns in 11 career games versus Washington and multiple projections have his TD probability as high as 60%.

Check out Jason Logan's full Commanders vs. Cowboys predictions.

Colts vs Chiefs: Rashee Rice

Given the matchup with the Colts and how they were burned by Baltimore’s slot WRs, I’m going back to the well with Rice on Sunday night.

Indianapolis allowed 324 total passing yards to Lamar Jackson, and 132 of those gains came from receivers lining up in the slot. These problems aren’t new, as the Colts allowed the third-most fantasy points to slot receivers in 2025.

Rice topped the Chiefs WRs in snaps, lining up in the slot and out wide in Week 1. He drew just two targets, one of which was for a 13-yard catch in the end zone. That gave Rice his eighth TD in his last 13 games dating back to 2024 (along with a fine for punting the ball into the crowd).

Touchdown probabilities bounce between 31% and 50%, with most on the higher end, giving value to his trading price of 33% in Week 2.

Check out Jason Logan's full Colts vs. Chiefs predictions.

Giants vs Rams: Isaiah Likely

Isaiah Likely was the cash converter last week and a huge part of the Giants' offense, keeping pace with Malik Nabers in terms of usage and volume. Despite that, his TD price has moved the wrong way, which I don't mind at all. I understand it's the Rams, but they're just getting back from Australia and looked awful defending the pass in Week 1.

Likely had four targets in the red zone and finished with two TDs. No other TE or WR had more than three red-zone targets in Week 1.

Likely is the No. 2 option in this passing game and is a green light for a TD buy at 3x or better right now.

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