Week 4's international clash that brings the Indianapolis Colts and Washington Commanders across the pond might be a tough pitch to local UK fans, but my top Colts vs. Commanders predictions and NFL picks are still diving straight into the action.
Sluggish ticket demand at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium even led the league to mark down prices. But a fresh set of betting angles with your morning coffee (or tea) should help kick-start Sunday's action, with Indianapolis as a 4.5-point neutral-site favorite.
Colts vs Commanders prediction today: Under 47.5
Now, imagine waking up that early to cheer for the Under. Before you hit snooze, hear me out.
This total will obviously tick up should Washington Commanders QB1 Jayden Daniels play (dislocated elbow), but I don’t think he will. That means more of backup Marcus Mariota.
Washington’s pace of play slows down with Mariota under center and the Commanders offense is getting too much credit for the 33 points scored in last Sunday’s upset of Seattle.
That production benefited from three turnovers (one pick-6) and Seattle’s inability to run the ball. The Commies had extra cracks on offense but managed just 4.0 yards per play and were outgained by almost 180 yards.
The Indianapolis Colts won’t have trouble running. Jonathan Taylor anchors an Indy attack that takes its sweet time, eating up the seventh-most seconds per play clock.
The Colts collected 35:13 in TOP in the win versus Houston and will keep plays short and simple in Week 4.
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Colts vs Commanders combo
International games tend to trend toward the Under, and this one will be played at a snail’s pace. The Colts will go run-heavy to chew up the clock and limit the exposure of a soft defense, while the Commanders come back to earth with a backup under center in a big letdown spot.
Tyler Warren has two touchdowns on the season and exposes the soft underbelly of this aggressive Commies defense, which has allowed five touchdowns to TEs already in 2026.
Jonathan Taylor tests the validity of this Washington run-stop unit. His projections call for 90+ rushing yards, and his offensive line clears the road against a Commanders defense missing bodies at LB.
Colts vs Commanders combo
- Under 47.5
- Tyler Warren touchdown
- Jonathan Taylor 90+ rushing yards
Colts vs Commanders touchdown scorer: Tyler Warren
Indianapolis tight end Tyler Warren scored in the Colts’ first two games of the season and has a solid shot at finding the end zone in Hotspur Stadium.
Warren will be a popular passing target for Jones, given Washington’s aggressive pass rush. The Commanders are dialing up the blitz at the fourth-highest rate, leaving tight ends plenty of room to operate underneath the coverage for quick releases.
Washington has allowed the seventh most yards to TEs but, more notably, has given up five touchdowns to the position in only three games. Adding to those issues is an illness to SS Nick Cross, who didn’t make the trip to London.
Warren has caught all three balls thrown his way inside the red zone, two of which ended in six points. Touchdown projections for Warren sit between 32% and 50%, with most models at 40%+.
TOP PICK
Colts vs Commanders player prop: Jonathan Taylor 90+ rushing yards
Colts star Jonathan Taylor is sixth in rushing yards after three weeks despite Indianapolis handing it off on only 44% of snaps.
This trip to London is the first time Indy has been a favorite, setting up a rare run-positive game script for Taylor.
He faces a Washington defense that ranks well against the run, but that has a lot to do with how bad the Commanders are at protecting against the pass. Foes are throwing at the fifth-highest rate against this defense and doing so successfully.
Why eat burgers when you can have prime rib, right?
Projections for Taylor range from 86 to 100 yards, with most models at 90+. My number comes out to 95+ yards from Indy’s stud RB.
COVERS INTEL: Washington’s run-stopping unit is running thin. Linebacker Leo Chenal is out for the season after a neck injury in Week 3, and LB Frankie Luvu is fighting a nagging groin ailment. That shorthanded group faces a Colts offensive line rated No. 6 in run block at PFF.Want more NFL player props? Check out our NFL player prop projections!
Colts vs Commanders odds today
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Spread: Colts -4.5 | Commanders +4.5
- Over/Under: Over 47.5 (50%) | Under 47.5 (51%)
- Moneyline: Colts 64% | Commanders 37%
For the full slate of NFL matchups, check out our NFL odds board!
- Top picks: 7-2, +4.22 units
- Combos: 0-9, -9.00 units
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Colts vs Commanders weather
The forecast for London calls for cloudy skies and mid-60s temperatures.
Winds blow at 6 mph WSW with gusts up to 16 mph, which won’t affect the on-field action.
Check out our NFL weather page for up-to-date info on every matchup.
Colts vs Commanders trend to know
The Colts were a perfect 5-0 SU and 3-2 ATS when Jonathan Taylor rushed for 100+ yards in 2025. Find more NFL betting trends for Colts vs. Commanders.
How to watch Colts vs Commanders
| Location | Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, London, England |
| Date | Sunday, Oct. 4, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 9:30 a.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
Colts vs Commanders latest injuries
Check out our NFL injuries page for updates on every team.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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