The NFL heads across the pond for an early Sunday morning contest, and my Colts vs. Commanders prop picks dive into three of my favorite lines for the marquee international matchup.
Read on to see why I’m expecting a big game from Jacory Croskey-Merritt and why I'm backing breakout performances from Daniel Jones and Josh Downs in my NFL picks for the London Games on Sunday, Oct. 4.
Best Colts vs Commanders props
For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Pick |  Probability |
|---|---|
 Jacory Croskey-Merritt Over 59.5 Rush Yards |
53% |
 Daniel Jones Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns |
48% |
| Josh Downs Anytime Touchdown |
33% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
Start trading with Kalshi today!
Sign up now using our exclusive Kalshi promo code 'COVERS60' and trade $25 on any event contracts to get $60!
*Eligible U.S. locations only
Prop pick #1: Jacory Croskey-Merritt Over 59.5 Rush Yards
Jacory Croskey-Merritt finished with 63 rushing yards on 16 carries in Week 1 but totaled only 79 rushing yards on 31 carries across Weeks 2 and 3.
JCM has totaled 99 snaps this season, racking up 147 yards on 50 total touches. Change-of-pace back Rachaad White has played 95 snaps and leads the backfield in total yards with 151 on 31 touches.
White has missed practice all week with a shoulder injury, and he’s not expected to suit up. The remaining backfield options are rookie Kaytron Allen and veteran Austin Ekeler, who have totaled just 40 yards on nine touches between them.
Croskey-Merritt should see a spike in touches in Week 4, and running lanes should open up after going 19/36 last week against the fifth-ranked Seattle Seahawks defense.
The Colts have allowed the sixth-most rush yards, 114 per game.
Prop pick #2: Daniel Jones Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns
Daniel Jones has thrown only three touchdown passes through three games, but he’s in a phenomenal spot on Sunday morning against one of the league’s most generous secondaries.
The Washington Commanders defense has surrendered the most passing touchdowns per game (3.7) while only forcing two total interceptions. Washington has given up the third-most passing yards per game at a healthy 287.
For as vulnerable as the Commanders are through the air, they’ve been stout against the run, giving up the third-fewest rush yards (56) and no rushing touchdowns.
Jones threw multiple scores only six times in 13 games last season, and he hasn’t been a prolific QB throughout his career, which explains the low probability.
Given Washington’s horrendous pass defense and strong run defense, I’m willing to trade this up to 55% and bet on a breakout performance.
Prop pick #3: Josh Downs Anytime Touchdown
If Jones is tossing multiple tuddies, Downs will catch at least one. Downs has yet to reach the end zone this season, but he leads the Indianapolis Colts in targets (24) and receiving yards (186) and ranks second in receptions (14).
Washington has surrendered six receiving touchdowns to wideouts this season, tying the Arizona Cardinals for the most in the NFL.
Downs finished with just two catches for 37 yards on four targets in Week 1, and the bulk of his production has come over the last two games following Alec Pierce’s heel injury.
With Keenan Allen (groin) a non-participant in Friday’s practice, the Colts’ receiving depth is razor thin heading to London, and Downs should see even more looks in this highly exploitable matchup.
- Prop picks: 0-0, +0.0 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
