Another 2–1 week puts Gimme the Over at 6-3 on the season, and we’re back for more with my Week 4 Over/Under picks, which feature two generous defenses in London, fireworks in Cincinnati, and two practice-squad-level secondaries in Carolina.
Here are the three Overs I'm targeting with this week's NFL picks.
NFL Week 4 Over/Under picks
Colts vs 
Commanders
Jaguars vs 
Bengals
Lions vs 
PanthersPercentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Expert Week 4 NFL Over/Under picks
For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, please see our odds calculator.
Colts vs Commanders: Over 47.5
The NFL heads to Jolly Old England for its first London game of the season, and these defenses should make the trip worthwhile for anyone who enjoys touchdowns. London games can get funky, but there’s nothing strange about backing an Over when these teams’ games have reached 55 combined points in four of six outings this season.
Both defenses allow more than 30 points per game and rank 32nd and 30th in yards allowed per play. Both offenses rank in the Top 10 in red-zone efficiency, giving us teams that finish drives against defenses that barely interrupt them.
Marcus Mariota gets the start for the Washington Commanders and looks like he’s back at Oregon: four touchdowns, zero interceptions, and a 109.7 passer rating in relief of Jayden Daniels. Washington has gone Over in seven straight. Let’s make it eight.
Jaguars vs Bengals: Over 51.5
So much for a radical turnaround from this Cincinnati Bengals defense. Aaron Rodgers and the previously incompetent Steelers offense torched the Bengals for 30 points and 7.0 yards per play last week. Old habits die hard.
These defenses rank 24th and 25th in explosive play rate allowed, a recipe for disaster against the offensive firepower on both sides. The Jacksonville Jaguars are buzzing, ranking in the Top 10 across many key offensive categories. Cincinnati’s best offensive performance of the season came in its lone home game, where they dropped 33 points in Week 1.
These teams combined for 58 points last season with Jake Browning taking most of Cincinnati’s quarterback snaps. Six of the Bengals’ nine home games since the start of last season have reached at least 58 combined points. We’re asking for 52. The scoreboard operator better be locked in — this is their time to shine.
Lions vs Panthers: Over 51.5
The Detroit Lions have opened the season with three straight Overs, averaging 62.6 combined points. The Carolina Panthers have shown an ability to light up the scoreboard with games of 37 and 34, but were obliterated for 59 points against the Bears in Week 1 — the lone time they faced a respectable offense.
Much has been made of Detroit’s battered secondary. Carolina is joining the party, placing cornerbacks Jaycee Horn and Mike Jackson on injured reserve. Neither team is equipped to slow down the opposing offense.
The Lions can go shot for shot with anyone, while their defense ranks 31st on third down, 31st in the red zone, and dead last in explosive play rate allowed. That should give the Panthers plenty of opportunities to put on a show at home in a game where both teams have the potential to both score and allow 30 points.
Week 4 Over/Under combo
Colts/Commanders Over 47.5
Jaguars/Bengals Over 51.5
Lions/Panthers Over 51.5
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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