You don’t have to be a fan of the Kansas City Chiefs or Buffalo Bills to appreciate one of the greatest football rivalries.
That gratitude sure isn’t lost on NFL bettors, who have enjoyed sweating out these AFC heavyweight bouts in recent years.
Kansas City comes to Buffalo for another monster matchup in Week 9 and while Patrick Mahomes has gotten the better of Josh Allen in their postseason pairings, Allen has the edge in the regular season.
I like Allen to do it all for “Bills Mafia”, including racking up the rushing yards this Sunday.
Here are my best NFL picks and Chiefs vs. Bills predictions for November 2.
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Chiefs vs Bills prediction
Chiefs vs Bills Best bet: Josh Allen Over 37.5 rushing yards (-114)
Josh Allen is among the most dangerous dual-threat quarterbacks of all time and proved it by setting the NFL record for most games with a passing touchdown and a rushing touchdown in last week’s win over the Carolina Panthers.
Allen, who scored two TDs on the ground in Week 8, didn’t need to do much with his legs, running only three times for seven yards in a one-sided finish. However, this Kansas City Chiefs defense is a different beast.
Kansas City’s stop unit is playing at an extremely high level right now but does have a weakness when it comes to stopping the run. More specifically, running QBs. On the season, the Chiefs have given up the third most rushing yards to quarterbacks entering Week 9.
Fleet-footed quarterbacks (and some not so quick) have done damage with their legs against KC, with the likes of Justin Herbert, Russell Wilson, Trevor Lawrence, Marcus Mariota, and Lamar Jackson scrambling for 28 yards or more versus the Chiefs.
Allen has a habit of making big plays with his legs in the big games, many of which have come against Kansas City. He’s posted in rushing yard tallies of 39, 42, 55, 68. 72, and 88 in some of his recent run-ins with Steve Spagnuolo’s stop unit.
Allen is currently fourth among QBs in carries per game at 7.0 and on average, two of those runs are by design. He’s No. 4 in QB scrambles and will find himself tucking and running plenty Sunday.
Kansas City’s blitz-heavy schemes and tight coverage will force him out of the pocket and abandoning downfield looks. That why the Chiefs have seen the most rushing attempts by rival QBs so far this season (50).
Player projections for Allen to range, with some as low as 32 yards while others have a ceiling closer to 45 rushing yards. Given the circumstances and opponent, I’m banking on another big day on the ground from No. 17.
Chiefs vs Bills same-game parlay
Allen always burns the Chiefs with his legs and could see his number called more often, in an effort to exploit a soft Kansas City run stop.
Allen sees his number called a lot in the red zone – a historical amount after last week. Kansas City has been weak against running QBs while allowing three TDs to the position.
Payback for last year’s AFC title game drives the Buffalo Bills in Week 9, facing a Chiefs team having to travel on a short week after playing on MNF in Week 8.
Chiefs vs Bills SGP
- Buffalo Bills moneyline
- Josh Allen Over 37.5 rushing yards
- Josh Allen anytime touchdown
Our big-ticket SGP: Big up on the Bills
Allen’s projections sit as high as 45 rushing yards on Sunday.
Allen has found the end zone five times this season, including twice last week.
Buffalo is just as bad as containing running QBs and Patrick Mahomes has four rushing TDs.
The Bills are 4-1 SU in their last five regular season meetings with the Chiefs.
Chiefs vs Bills SGP
- Buffalo Bills moneyline
- Josh Allen Over 37.5 rushing yards
- Josh Allen anytime touchdown
- Patrick Mahomes anytime touchdown
Chiefs vs Bills moneyline prediction
The Bills are rare home underdogs on the moneyline but not by much. Buffalo has been a dog in front of the Orchard Park crowds only five times since 2020 and have come out with a 4-1 SU mark. I see Buffalo winning on a last-second field goal.
Score prediction: Bills 27, Chiefs 24
Chiefs vs Bills odds
- Spread: Kansas City -1.5 (-114) | Buffalo +1.5 (-106)
- Moneyline: Kansas City -134 | Buffalo +114
- Over/Under: Over 52.5 (-105) | Under 52.5 (-115)
More NFL picks and odds from Covers
Chiefs vs Bills trend to know
Kansas City is 4-7 Over/Under in its last 11 away games (64% Unders). Find more NFL betting trends for Chiefs vs. Bills.
How to watch Chiefs vs Bills
| Location | Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, NY |
| Date | Sunday, November 2, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | CBS |
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