Shakir has been a great shallow option for the Bills, and that should play well against a Kansas City team that gives up short receptions while preventing deep balls in the passing game.
Cook is regularly running for far above his listed total, and should be able to get there again against a Kansas City defense that hasn't been able to shut down opposing rushing attacks.
Josh Allen has done damage with his legs during his entire pro career, but has really run over the Chiefs in their rivalry. Kansas City is among the worst defenses at slowing dual-threat QBs and Allen enters with five rushing touchdowns on the season, including two last weekend against Carolina. He gets red zone runs and goal line "tush pushes" and can make something happen with his legs when passing plays break down. Surprised to see this ATTD price at plsu-money considering just how dangerous Allen is when he sees the goal line.
It’s MVP vs. MVP, and I’m backing Josh Allen to find the end zone at plus money. Allen has scored four rushing touchdowns in his last four games against the Chiefs and is coming off a game where he ran just three times for seven yards—but two of those carries went for scores. The Bills have their own version of the tush push, and when they get inside the five, James Cook TD bettors have every reason to sweat, as Allen continues to steal short-yardage touchdowns. Last week, his TD price closed at -120, and it’s been as short as -165 this season. In a high-profile matchup like this, Allen should rise to the occasion at home, where he’s scored 37 rushing touchdowns in 58 career games. It's an A+ at +110, and I'd play it to -120.
Keon Coleman has stayed below his receiving yards prop in three of the last four weeks, including just three catches on four targets for 30 yards in last Sunday’s blowout of the Panthers. Some of that was Buffalo playing with a lead and running more but OC Joe Brady admitted this week that he has to do a better job getting Coleman involved in the offense. Projections for Coleman range from 37 yards to a ceiling of 57, with the majority of models coming in north of 40 yards receiving. Given the high point total for this showdown with the Chiefs, there could be more passing opportunities and targets coming Coleman’s way in Week 9.
This Sunday’s marquee showdown between the Chiefs and Bills will feel like a playoff game, which means Josh Allen is doing it all. The Buffalo QB makes plays with his legs in the biggest games and has run up and down Spagnuolo’s defense in recent meetings: 39, 42, 55, 68, 72, 88. No. Those aren’t tonight’s winning lotto numbers – those are some Allen’s recent rushing tallies versus KC. Add in the fact, the Chiefs have given up the third most rushing yards to QBs so far in 2025 and some Allen projections north of 40 and I like him to top 35.5 rushing yards in Week 9.
The most important edge for the Bills, however, is their rushing game. Buffalo is going to go heavy with RB James Cook and QB Josh Allen, who can pull back the curtain on this Kansas City defense. The Chiefs have been very stingy during this current turnaround but a lot of that has to do with building big leads early. That’s forcing opponents to abandon the run (third lowest run rate against in last three games) and throw into the teeth of this Steve Spagnoulo scheme. Kansas City is near the bottom of the league in run stop win rate at ESPN, is 23rd in run stop rating at PFF, and sits No. 22 in EPA allowed per handoff. In their last three head-to-head battles, the Bills have marched for 433 total rushing yards on 102 attempts. Buffalo’s dominance with the run in 2025 has made it the top “TOP” team in the league, chewing through 33:14 worth of possession per game and limiting opponents’ opportunities with the football.
The weather report calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, and reduced rush volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.. With an impressive 22.9% Red Zone Target Rate (86th percentile) this year, Khalil Shakir has been as one of the wide receivers with the most usage near the goal line in football.. The Bills O-line ranks as the 4th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong effect on all passing attack stats across the board.. Khalil Shakir ranks as one of the most sure-handed receivers in the NFL, catching an exceptional 80.0% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, grading out in the 94th percentile among wide receivers.. With a stellar rate of 0.38 per game through the air (82nd percentile), Khalil Shakir rates as one of the leading receiving touchdown-scorers in the NFL when it comes to wide receivers this year.
The projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 3rd-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 62.2% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. The projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs to be the most pass-heavy offense in the league near the end zone (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 64.3% red zone pass rate.. The 5th-smallest volume of plays in the league have been called by the Kansas City Chiefs this year (a measly 52.0 per game on average).. The weather report calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, and reduced run volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.. The Chiefs O-line profiles as the 5th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive influence on all passing game stats across the board.
The predictive model expects this game to see the 3rd-lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 124.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. Opposing offenses have averaged 28.7 pass attempts per game versus the Buffalo Bills defense this year: 5th-fewest in the NFL.
The predictive model expects this game to see the 3rd-lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 124.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. Opposing offenses have averaged 28.7 pass attempts per game versus the Buffalo Bills defense this year: 5th-fewest in the NFL.. Opposing offenses have passed for the 2nd-fewest yards in the league (just 179.0 adjusted yards per game) vs. the Buffalo Bills defense this year.
The projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 3rd-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 62.2% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. The 5th-smallest volume of plays in the league have been called by the Kansas City Chiefs this year (a measly 52.0 per game on average).. The weather report calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, and reduced run volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.. The Chiefs O-line profiles as the 5th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive influence on all passing game stats across the board.. Kareem Hunt's 91.6% Adjusted Catch% this year marks a remarkable gain in his pass-catching skills over last year's 86.2% rate.
The weather report calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, and reduced rush volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.. The model projects Khalil Shakir to accumulate 7.2 targets in this game, on average, placing him in the 78th percentile among wide receivers.. Khalil Shakir has been an integral part of his team's offense, garnering a Target Share of 20.1% this year, which places him in the 76th percentile when it comes to WRs.. The Bills O-line ranks as the 4th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong effect on all passing attack stats across the board.. Khalil Shakir ranks as one of the most sure-handed receivers in the NFL, catching an exceptional 80.0% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, grading out in the 94th percentile among wide receivers.
The weather report calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, and reduced rush volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.. With an impressive 47.9% Route Participation Rate (79th percentile) this year, James Cook rates among the pass-game running backs with the highest volume in football.. The Bills O-line ranks as the 4th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong effect on all passing attack stats across the board.. James Cook's 92.3% Adjusted Completion% this year represents a remarkable improvement in his pass-catching talent over last year's 84.6% figure.
The projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 3rd-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 62.2% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. The 5th-smallest volume of plays in the league have been called by the Kansas City Chiefs this year (a measly 52.0 per game on average).. The weather report calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, and reduced run volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.. In this game, Rashee Rice is forecasted by our trusted projection set to place in the 95th percentile when it comes to WRs with 9.7 targets.. Rashee Rice has been a big part of his team's offense, garnering a Target Share of 27.0% since the start of last season, which puts him in the 96th percentile among wideouts.
The projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 3rd-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 62.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. The Chiefs O-line profiles as the 5th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive influence on all passing game stats across the board.. The Buffalo Bills linebackers grade out as the 7th-worst collection of LBs in the NFL this year in pass coverage.
The weather report calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, and reduced rush volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.. The projections expect Dalton Kincaid to notch 5.2 targets this week, on average, ranking him in the 80th percentile when it comes to tight ends.. Dalton Kincaid has accrued a colossal 44.0 air yards per game this year: 96th percentile among tight ends.. Dalton Kincaid's 38.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that assesses high-value offensive involvement) ranks among the best in football: 91st percentile for TEs.. The Bills O-line ranks as the 4th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong effect on all passing attack stats across the board.
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