Kansas City @ Buffalo Picks & Props

With an impressive 22.9% Red Zone Target Rate (87th percentile) this year, Khalil Shakir has been as one of the wide receivers with the most usage near the goal line in football. The Bills O-line ranks as the 4th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong effect on all passing attack stats across the board. Khalil Shakir ranks as one of the most sure-handed receivers in the NFL, catching an exceptional 80.0% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, grading out in the 92nd percentile among wide receivers. With a stellar rate of 0.38 per game through the air (81st percentile), Khalil Shakir rates as one of the leading receiving touchdown-scorers in the NFL when it comes to wide receivers this year. This year, the weak Kansas City Chiefs defense has been gouged for a staggering 75.7% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing teams: the 8th-biggest rate in the league.

The projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 3rd-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 62.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics. The projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs to be the most pass-heavy offense in the league near the end zone (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 64.8% red zone pass rate. The projections expect Kareem Hunt to be a much bigger part of his offense's air attack near the goal line in this week's contest (8.1% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (2.0% in games he has played). The Chiefs O-line profiles as the 5th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive influence on all passing game stats across the board. Kareem Hunt's 89.7% Adjusted Catch% this year marks a remarkable gain in his pass-catching skills over last year's 86.2% rate.

The projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 3rd-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 62.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics. The projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs to be the most pass-heavy offense in the league near the end zone (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 64.8% red zone pass rate. While Rashee Rice has garnered 22.2% of his team's red zone targets in games he has played since the start of last season, the leading projections forecast him to be a more integral piece of Kansas City's pass game near the goal line in this week's game at 28.5%. Rashee Rice ranks in the 88th percentile when it comes to wide receiver WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that calculates high-value offensive volume) with a colossal 53.3 mark since the start of last season. The Chiefs O-line profiles as the 5th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive influence on all passing game stats across the board.

With a top-tier 15.6% Red Zone Target Share (81st percentile) this year, Dalton Kincaid rates among the tight ends with the biggest workloads near the goal line in the league. Dalton Kincaid has accrued a colossal 44.0 air yards per game this year: 96th percentile among tight ends. Dalton Kincaid's 38.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that assesses high-value offensive involvement) ranks among the best in football: 92nd percentile for TEs. The Bills O-line ranks as the 4th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong effect on all passing attack stats across the board. Dalton Kincaid's possession skills have been refined this year, with his Adjusted Completion% increasing from 62.0% to 77.9%.

The Bills O-line ranks as the 4th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong effect on all passing attack stats across the board. Josh Allen's 68.1% Adjusted Completion% this season signifies a material improvement in his throwing accuracy over last season's 64.7% figure. This year, the weak Kansas City Chiefs defense has been gouged for a staggering 75.7% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing teams: the 8th-biggest rate in the league.

The projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 3rd-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 62.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics. The projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs to be the most pass-heavy offense in the league near the end zone (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 64.8% red zone pass rate. The Chiefs O-line profiles as the 5th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive influence on all passing game stats across the board. Travis Kelce's ball-catching skills have gotten a boost this season, with his Adjusted Completion% jumping from 74.7% to 82.1%. Travis Kelce grades out in the 77th percentile among TEs as it relates to catching TDs this year, averaging an impressive 0.29 per game.

The projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 3rd-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 62.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics. The projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs to be the most pass-heavy offense in the league near the end zone (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 64.8% red zone pass rate. In this contest, Patrick Mahomes is predicted by the predictive model to wind up with the 8th-most pass attempts among all QBs with 36.4. The predictive model expects Patrick Mahomes to be a much smaller piece of his offense's rushing attack near the goal line in this week's contest (2.0% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (11.8% in games he has played). The Chiefs O-line profiles as the 5th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive influence on all passing game stats across the board.