The AFC West has already delivered plenty of chaos, and Sunday’s showdown gives the Los Angeles Chargers a chance to grab early control of the division when they host the Denver Broncos.
Justin Herbert has L.A. eyeing a 3-0 start in its home opener, but my Broncos vs. Chargers predictions lean on Denver’s ground attack to keep this contest tight and make the Chargers sweat at SoFi Stadium.
Get the lowdown with my NFL picks for Sunday, September 21.
Broncos vs Chargers prediction
Broncos vs Chargers Best bet: J.K. Dobbins anytime touchdown (+150)
"Good luck to them. I’m a Bronco now. They’ve got to see me twice a year".
J.K. Dobbins isn’t shying away from what this weekend means to him, with the prospect of doing damage at the head of the Denver Broncos’ rushing attack.
Dobbins spent last season with the Los Angeles Chargers, and there’s likely to be a chip on his shoulder on Sunday against his old team after a new deal didn’t materialize in the offseason.
With a revenge game on deck, I like this price for Dobbins to find a way into the end zone in Week 3. He’s scored a touchdown in both of Denver’s games this year, and he ended up with the lion’s share of the carries in the Broncos’ loss to the Indianapolis Colts last Sunday.
Dobbins’ steady start has been all the more important with Bo Nix looking out of sorts at times against both the Colts and the Tennessee Titans. Nix has already tossed three picks, and Sean Payton will surely be eager to lean on the ground game to keep his QB out of third-and-long situations.
That sets Dobbins up for enough red zone touches to cash this prop. The Chargers’ run defense has throttled the Las Vegas Raiders and Kansas City Chiefs, but those are below-average rushing attacks. Denver brings a bigger threat, and Dobbins would surely love nothing better than a touchdown celebration in this matchup.
Broncos vs Chargers same-game parlay
I’ll double down on the Denver ground game with the Over on Dobbins’ rushing yards total, which was really tempting as a best bet, too. He’s gone past this number in his first two outings, including 76 yards and a TD on 14 carries against the Colts, and he’s got the inside track on how to find holes in this L.A. run defense.
And yet, I’m still taking the Chargers moneyline here, even on a short week. The hosts’ offense is generating enough big plays via the trio of Ladd McConkey, Quentin Johnston and Keenan Allen, and Herbert is off to a sharper start than Nix. L.A. won both meetings between these teams last season and went 4-1 in its first five home games that year.
Broncos vs Chargers SGP
- J.K. Dobbins anytime touchdown
- J.K. Dobbins Over 51.5 rushing yards
- Los Angeles Chargers moneyline
Our big-ticket SGP: Chargers Roll!
- We haven’t seen many explosive plays yet from rookie RB Omarion Hampton, but Justin Herbert has been quick to use his legs to move the chains so far this year.
- Herbert finished with 31 rushing yards in Week 1 against the Chiefs in Brazil, followed by 32 against the Las Vegas Raiders on MNF, and yet this line is only set at 21.5. Look for the L.A. quarterback to scramble effectively when Denver gets traction up front.
Broncos vs Chargers SGP
- J.K. Dobbins anytime touchdown
- J.K. Dobbins Over 51.5 rushing yards
- Los Angeles Chargers moneyline
- Justin Herbert Over 21.5 rushing yards
Broncos vs Chargers game predictions
Broncos vs Chargers moneyline prediction
I’ve taken the L.A. moneyline in my SGP, and I’m prepared for a universe where the so often snake-bitten Chargers are 3-0 on Sunday night. The hosts are worthy favorites here, and they’ve hit the 1H moneyline in 16 of their last 21 outings. Meanwhile, the Broncos are coming off two performances that haven’t lived up to the offseason hype.
Broncos vs Chargers spread prediction
The Chargers are 7-3 ATS in their past 10 contests, and it’s easier to trust Herbert to make the key throws given what we’ve seen from him through the first two weeks – five touchdown passes and zero interceptions. Denver struggled defensively last weekend, in contrast to an L.A. unit that clamped down on MNF, holding the Raiders to just nine points. Admittedly, I liked the Chargers better before the line climbed to 3.
Broncos vs Chargers Over/Under prediction
The Over is 7-2 in the Chargers’ last nine home games, and the Broncos have hit the Team Total Over in 15 of their last 21 contests. But this is a tough one to call, with both defenses capable of stringing together stops, and Week 2 was a wake-up call for the Broncos on that side of the ball. Don’t sleep on the Under here.
Broncos vs Chargers odds
- Spread: Broncos +2.5 (-105) | Chargers -2.5 (-115)
- Moneyline: Broncos +125 | Chargers (-150)
- Over/Under: Over 45.5 (-110) | Under 45.5 (-110)
More NFL picks and odds from Covers
Broncos vs Chargers trend to know
The Chargers are 4-1 in the last five meetings between these teams in L.A. Find more NFL betting trends for Broncos vs. Chargers.
How to watch Broncos vs Chargers
| Location | SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA |
| Date | Sunday, September 21, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 4:05 p.m. ET |
| TV | CBS |
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