Dobbins’ steady start has been all the more important with Bo Nix looking out of sorts at times against both the Colts and the Tennessee Titans. Nix has already tossed three picks, and Sean Payton will surely be eager to lean on the ground game to keep his QB out of third-and-long situations.
That sets Dobbins up for enough red zone touches to cash this prop. The Chargers’ run defense has throttled the Raiders and Kansas City Chiefs, but those are below-average rushing attacks. Denver brings a bigger threat, and Dobbins would surely love nothing better than a touchdown celebration in this matchup.
Despite being the Chargers No. 3 WR, Johnston leads the team with 150 receiving yards through two games. It's worth noting that 60 of his 71 receiving yards last week came on a single catch against the Raiders. He'll have a much tougher time beating an elite Broncos secondary over the top. The Broncos had the best pass defense in the NFL last year and this season they rank second in defensive dropback success rate. The Broncos also blitz at the second-highest rate in the league which won't give Bolts QB Justin Herbert time to look downfield. Johnston is at his best on vertical routes but Denver rarely gets beat deep and lockdown CB Patrick Surtain could be lined up against him on the outside.
The Chargers lead the league in Pass Rate Over Expected (PROE) at +11.9%, and their passing attack is spreading the ball well. Ladd McConkey, Quentin Johnston, and Keenan Allen were the top three targeted players in Week 2. All three have topped 100 receiving yards on the season, and the group has combined for five touchdowns—though McConkey has yet to score. My approach to betting Chargers TDs: target the longest-priced wideout of the three. Last week, that was Johnston at +250, and he cashed. This week, I’m going back to him at +235. Johnston leads the WR group with three touchdowns in three games and had a 93% route share in Week 2. The run game isn’t clicking for the Chargers right now, and I’m also not sold on this Denver defense—it faced Cam Ward and Daniel Jones to open the year, then gave up 470+ yards to the Colts last week.
Chargers QB Justin Herbert hasn’t had a turnover-worthy play through two games and ranks second in air yards, third in success rate and eighth in aDot. So, with this spread Under the key number of 3, I want the side the better quarterback is on.
Our trusted projections expect the Los Angeles Chargers as the 10th-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 59.0% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. Still weather conditions (like the 0-mph wind being forecasted in this game) usually correlate with better passing effectiveness, increased touchdown potential, increased pass volume, and lower rush volume.. The Broncos defense has been a prominent pass funnel since the start of last season, inducing opposing QBs to attempt the 3rd-most passes in the NFL (36.5 per game) since the start of last season.. Justin Herbert's passing precision has improved this season, with his Adjusted Completion% rising from 64.6% to 71.2%.. Since the start of last season, the stout Denver Broncos run defense has surrendered a paltry 0.58 touchdowns on the ground per game to the opposing side: the 3rd-smallest rate in the NFL.
The model projects the Broncos to be the 9th-most pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 59.4% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. At the moment, the 7th-most pass-oriented offense in the league near the end zone (58.5% in a neutral context) according to the projection model is the Broncos.. The forecast calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, and lower rush volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.. When it comes to protecting the quarterback (and the strong effect it has on all pass game stats), the offensive line of the Broncos grades out as the best in football since the start of last season.. Opposing offenses have rushed for the fewest TDs in the NFL (0.42 per game) against the Chargers defense since the start of last season.
Our trusted projections expect the Los Angeles Chargers as the 10th-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 59.0% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. Still weather conditions (like the 0-mph wind being forecasted in this game) usually correlate with better passing effectiveness, increased touchdown potential, increased pass volume, and lower rush volume.. The Broncos defense has been a prominent pass funnel since the start of last season, inducing opposing QBs to attempt the 3rd-most passes in the NFL (36.5 per game) since the start of last season.. The Broncos defense has yielded the most touchdowns through the air in the league to RBs: 0.37 per game since the start of last season.. Since the start of last season, the stout Denver Broncos run defense has surrendered a paltry 0.58 touchdowns on the ground per game to the opposing side: the 3rd-smallest rate in the NFL.
The model projects the Broncos to be the 9th-most pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 59.4% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. The forecast calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, and lower rush volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.. When it comes to protecting the quarterback (and the strong effect it has on all pass game stats), the offensive line of the Broncos grades out as the best in football since the start of last season.
Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Chargers are forecasted by the projections to run only 63.4 offensive plays in this game: the 11th-lowest number on the slate this week.. The Chargers have run the 3rd-fewest plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a mere 55.3 plays per game.. The Denver Broncos defense has performed very well when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 4.40 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 6th-fewest in football.
The Los Angeles Chargers have intercepted 0.93 targets per game since the start of last season, grading out as the 4th-best defense in the NFL by this standard.. The Los Angeles Chargers safeties project as the best group of safeties in football since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.
The model projects the Broncos to be the 9th-most pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 59.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. At just 27.54 seconds per snap, the Broncos offense ranks as the 8th-fastest paced in the NFL (adjusted for context) this year.. The forecast calls for 1-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, and lower rush volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.. This week, Evan Engram is predicted by the projection model to secure a spot in the 82nd percentile when it comes to tight ends with 5.0 targets.. Evan Engram has posted a monstrous 35.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 87th percentile when it comes to TEs.
Our trusted projections expect the Los Angeles Chargers as the 10th-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 59.0% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. Still weather conditions (like the 0-mph wind being forecasted in this game) usually correlate with better passing effectiveness, increased touchdown potential, increased pass volume, and lower rush volume.. The Broncos defense has been a prominent pass funnel since the start of last season, inducing opposing QBs to attempt the 3rd-most passes in the NFL (36.5 per game) since the start of last season.. Tyler Conklin has run a route on 77.2% of his team's passing plays since the start of last season, placing him in the 87th percentile among TEs.. When it comes to air yards, Tyler Conklin grades out in the towering 77th percentile among TEs since the start of last season, totaling a colossal 22.0 per game.
Our trusted projections expect the Los Angeles Chargers as the 10th-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 59.0% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. Still weather conditions (like the 0-mph wind being forecasted in this game) usually correlate with better passing effectiveness, increased touchdown potential, increased pass volume, and lower rush volume.. The Broncos defense has been a prominent pass funnel since the start of last season, inducing opposing QBs to attempt the 3rd-most passes in the NFL (36.5 per game) since the start of last season.. The Denver Broncos defense has given up the most adjusted receiving yards per game in football (47.0) vs. running backs since the start of last season.. Since the start of last season, the weak Denver Broncos defense has yielded the most adjusted yards-per-target in the league to opposing RBs: a monstrous 8.85 yards.
The model projects the Broncos to be the 9th-most pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 59.4% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. The forecast calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, and lower rush volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.. In this game, Courtland Sutton is projected by the projection model to slot into the 83rd percentile when it comes to WRs with 7.6 targets.. When it comes to air yards, Courtland Sutton ranks in the towering 97th percentile among wide receivers since the start of last season, accumulating an astounding 99.0 per game.. The Los Angeles Chargers defense has been gouged for the 10th-most adjusted receiving yards per game in the NFL (147.0) to wide receivers since the start of last season.