Our Ole Miss vs. Texas score prediction calls for a narrow win for the favored hosts, who have been on the wrong side of a last-second loss each of the last two weeks. These two ranked SEC foes face off tonight at 7:30 pm ET (ABC) from DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium in Austin.
Our AI projection model forecasts a 27-24 win for Texas as part of our college football AI predictions for Week 8, putting us on Ole Miss +3.5 and Under 53.5 with our AI picks for this matchup. Below, we break down the matchup and compare our spread pick with the Covers projections and expert picks using markets from the best prediction market apps.
Ole Miss vs Texas score prediction & AI picks
Win probabilities courtesy of Kalshi at time of publish; latest odds may vary based on market action.
Ole Miss vs Texas AI prediction
SAT · 7:30 pm ET · ABC
Win probability based on marketMore analysis
Texas can stop the skid without covering the spread. Our forecast puts the Longhorns ahead by a field goal, making the extra half-point valuable with Ole Miss +3.5. Kewan Lacy is available after rushing for 122 yards against Missouri, giving Trinidad Chambliss support against a Texas front missing Colin Simmons and Richard Wesley. Those absences could give Chambliss more time to extend plays and find receivers downfield. Texas still ranks third nationally in net adjusted EPA per play on defense, a strength Rob Paul highlights in his Ole Miss vs. Texas prediction. We favor the Longhorns outright, but a three-point margin leaves the Rebels inside the number.
Under 53.5 depends on Ole Miss forcing Texas into difficult passing downs. The Rebels held Missouri to 39 rushing yards in a 31-3 win, and Pete Golding emphasized early-down stops in his preparation for Texas. With Hollywood Smothers out and Derrek Cooper probable, the Longhorns have less certainty in their backfield. That increases the pressure on Arch Manning to sustain drives after throwing for 173 yards against Florida. Our 51-point projection leaves a 2.5-point cushion below the original total. Texas' depleted pass rush is the clearest threat to that pick: extra time for Chambliss could turn long possessions into quick scores.
Ole Miss vs Texas AI projections & expert picks
| AI model | Covers projections | Covers expertBy Rob Paul |
|---|---|---|
| MISS+3.5 | MISS+3.5 | TEX-3.5 |
Our AI model and the Covers projections both take Ole Miss +3.5, while Rob Paul backs Texas -3.5 in his expert picks. All three favor Texas outright, but the total divides the group: our original pick is Under 53.5, while Paul and our Covers projections favor Over 53.5.
Start trading with Kalshi today!
Sign up now using our exclusive Kalshi promo code 'MAX60' and trade $25 on any event contracts to get $60!
*Eligible U.S. locations only
How our college football AI predictions work
Our college football score predictions use a custom Bayesian model built from past game results, separate offensive and defensive team ratings, home-field effects, and college football scoring patterns.
We compare each score forecast with the selected full-game spread and total to produce our ATS and Over/Under picks. Kalshi percentages reflect market purchase quotes before fees, separate from the score forecasts. Quotes for opposing outcomes can add up to more than 100%.
We publicly track every published score prediction, ATS pick, and Over/Under selection against its original line throughout the season. Later market changes do not alter those tracked selections.
