These final few weeks of the college football season provide chances at unique value when making college football predictions, as teams have changed so much from their early impressions. Consider the Arizona Wildcats.
While they started the year 3-0, Brent Brennan’s second year in Tuscon was largely dismissed after a blowout loss to Iowa State. Losing twice in October, both by one possession, did not help Arizona’s cause in many minds.
But the Wildcats have won three straight games, including an upset at Cincinnati last week. Brennan has rebuilt a program quickly after it was relatively gutted upon his arrival.
Focusing too intently on the College Football Playoff rankings or on conference standings tiebreakers can hide those developments. Missing them costs you betting value in college football odds.
With that in mind, my Week 13 college football picks.
College football predictions Week 13
| Pick | Odds |
|---|---|
 NC State moneyline |
+190 |
 Arizona -7 |
-105 |
 James Madison -19.5 |
+180 |
 Wisconsin team total Under 16.5 |
-118 |
 Syracuse Under 0.5 TDs |
+105 |
 Gi'Bran Payne anytime TD |
+750 |
NC State moneyline
The North Carolina State Wolfpack's defense has been a worry all season long, noticed since Week 2 when head coach Dave Doeren rather loudly showed he had no faith in his usual trademark. At no point this season has it improved, leading to some discontent in Raleigh.
Its weakness is distinctly against the pass, not the rush. The Wolfpack have the No. 79 passing defense in the country in terms of expected points added (EPA) per dropback against, per CFB-graphs.com. That may sound far from atrocious, but then realize that is No. 11 in the ACC.
Then again, Florida State’s passing defense is No. 12 in the conference.
More pertinently, the Seminoles do not have the capacity to take advantage of the Wolfpack’s greatest weakness. Gus Malzahn’s offense insists on running the ball, doing so at the 24th-highest relative rate in the country.
On the flipside, NC State insists on throwing the ball. Facing the rare defense that is worse against the pass than its own, that insistence should lead to some success.
The matchup edge on both sides of the ball creates intriguing value in this underdog moneyline on Friday night.
Arizona -7
Speaking of unexpectedly failing defenses, Dave Aranda’s usual strength at Baylor has abandoned him this season. This coaching carousel may be a bit too chaotic for the Bears administration — also undergoing its own chaos — to fire Aranda, but he will be watched closely all offseason and into September.
Baylor ranks No. 82 in the country in EPA against the rush and No. 113 in rushing success rate against. Recent weeks have seen both Cincinnati and Utah abuse that rush defense, the Utes putting together one of the better rushing performances you will see on a college field.
Enter an impressive Arizona Wildcats rushing offense, ranking No. 24 in the country in rushing EPA, even though the Wildcats prefer to throw the ball. Note: Baylor is not exactly exceling defending the pass, No. 74 in passing EPA against.
Arizona has leaned on its ground game more in recent weeks, particularly when recognizing a matchup edge. It genuinely ran through both Colorado and Cincinnati, and it absolutely embarrassed Kansas between those two.
The Wildcats should run all over the Bears, quite possibly turning the second half into a blowout.
James Madison -19.5
The James Madison Dukes' CFP hopes are not dead, they just seem that way.
Seeing Tulane as the only Group of Five team ranked in the Playoff committee’s eyes this week lowered the Dukes’ hopes, and it was certainly discouraging, but there is still a path to the bracket for James Madison. If North Texas beats Tulane in the American title game, then the Dukes need to finish ahead of the Mean Green in the final rankings.
James Madison head coach Bob Chesney has assuredly pointed out to his locker room that they don’t know where they rank in comparison to North Texas. Sure, assume the Mean Green would be higher if the rankings expanded to No. 30 or No. 35, but that is not actually a known reality.
Until it is, James Madison needs to do what it can to impress the committee, beginning with blowing out Washington State this weekend.
Betting this alternate spread is betting that the Dukes will not consider giving up a late, meaningless score. The scoreboard optics matter too much to them.
Washington State lacks any particular strength, and while the Cougars are still alive for a bowl game, the more important item to them is next week, facing Oregon State for a second time this season.
This may be a lookahead moment for Washington State, seeking both revenge and bowl eligibility next week against its last remaining rival. Consider that another reason to doubt any backdoor cover, which then lends even more confidence in James Madison covering this -13.5 spread with ease.
Wisconsin team total Under 16.5
It seems once the Wisconsin Badgers administration firmly said head coach Luke Fickell would retain his job into 2026, some of the Wisconsin intrigue dissipated. Upsetting Washington certainly helped that indifference.
But the Badgers scored all of 13 points in that upset. They have not reached 17 points since Week 1, a rout of Middle Tennssee State.
Think about that. In eight games against Power Four competition, Wisconsin has averaged 8.9 points per game. It has reached double digits just that one time in the last five games.
It is not like Illinois has a bad defense. In fact, the Illini defensive line is littered with Wisconsin transfers.
Illinois’s defense is weakest against the pass, ranking No. 130 in passing success rate against. Great news: The Badgers have one of the 20-worst passing offenses in the country in every regard. Thus, Wisconsin rarely throws the ball, relatively speaking, No. 14 in the country in relative rush rate.
Illinois head coach Bret Bielema has a known want to top his former employer, but he has done so only once in their three meetings since he took over in Champaign. A chance to square that record is not one Bielema, or the Illini defense, will take lightly.
Syracuse Under 0.5 TDs
There may not be a worse Power Four offense in the country right now outside of Stillwater. No, really. All due respect to the classic Covers orange, but it is not a good year to be in orange in college football.
This math is rough, but since Week 5, when Syracuse Orange quarterback Steve Angeli was relegated to the sideline with a torn Achilles, Syracuse’s average offensive EPA in a game has been -0.284 per offensive snap. Again, this is rough math, but it should be within reasonable error.
That would rank No. 135 in the country across the season, ahead of only UMass.
Maybe Syracuse has the worst Power Four offense in the country right now including Oklahoma State.
On Senior Day, do not expect any let up from Notre Dame’s defense in the fourth quarter, not that it would much matter if it did.
You can do it, Notre Dame fans.
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) November 20, 2025
It is just two words.
"Fight on." https://t.co/xujpLMpX25 pic.twitter.com/wyGiRSXKSb
Gi'Bran Payne anytime TD
On Senior Days, always look for a veteran who the coaching staff may give a late drive. In South Bend, that is most likely going to be senior running back Gi’Bran Payne — though if you see a prop for a Tyler Buchner touchdown, as unlikely as that is to be offered anywhere, bet that too.
Payne is no higher than fourth on the talented Irish depth chart. But this should be his last game in South Bend.
No Notre Dame receiver is running out of eligibility after years in the program. Tight end Eli Raridon will have the option to return next season. But for Payne, this is likely it.
Thus, toss half a unit on this cherry atop a certain blowout.
My weekly CFB best bets column is 26-38-1 this season for -12.17 units.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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