Fernando Mendoza took the college football world by storm in 2025, not only winning the Heisman Trophy, but also a national championship.
There is now a new quarterback at Indiana, and according to the Heisman odds, he’s got a great chance to make it back-to-back wins for the Hoosiers.
My early Heisman predictions look at the leaders in the market, which include Arch Manning, before giving you my favorite value plays.
2026 Heisman predictions
| Result | |
|---|---|
| Josh Hoover to win | Trade at Kalshi |
| Darian Mensah to win | Trade at Kalshi |
| Jeremiah Smith to win | Trade at Kalshi |
Who will win the 2026 Heisman Trophy at prediction markets?
Arch Manning was always going to be one of the top players traded once it was announced he was returning to Texas. But Manning will have to play better against top competition in 2026 if he wants to win college football’s top award.
The player who has been traded the most recently is Mississippi quarterback Trinidad Chambliss, who was just granted another year of eligibility from a state judge. And after his performance in the CFP, you knew his stock would be on the rise.
The other most traded player to win the Heisman is Notre Dame QB CJ Carr, following a solid first season in South Bend.
Our predictions: Josh Hoover, Darian Mensah, Jeremiah Smith
- Hoover is set to replace Heisman Trophy winner and national champion Fernando Mendoza at Indiana. The crazy thing is, Hoover might have a better arm than Mendoza.
- Mensah is primed for a huge season with The U following a late departure from Duke. Mensah has my vote for most talented quarterback in college football, and I think he'll also lead the market for first overall pick in the 2027 NFL Draft.
- If you ask most people, Jeremiah Smith is the best player in college football. It would take a huge year for a wideout to win the Heisman, but if someone could do it, it's Smith. So, this is not a bad price to back the best player in college football.
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What is Kalshi and how does it work?
Kalshi is a federally regulated U.S. exchange where you trade directly on the outcome of real-world future events. Instead of traditional bets, you trade "Event Contracts" which are simple Yes/No questions like "Will the Eagles win this Sunday?" These events are priced between $0.01 and $0.99, and the prices reflect the market’s estimated probability of that event occurring. For instance, $0.55 equals a 55% chance. If your prediction is correct, the contract pays out exactly $1.00; if not, it settles at $0. Kalshi is essentially a stock market for reality.
How does Kalshi differ from sportsbooks?
In a sportsbook, you bet against the bookmaker, who sets fixed odds and takes a "vig," which is a kind of commission. On Kalshi, you trade against other users. This peer-to-peer model means prices are driven by supply and demand, often resulting in fairer odds. Additionally, because these are financial derivatives, you can exit your position early. If your team takes a 14-point lead, the contract price will rise, allowing you to sell your "Yes" shares for a profit before the final whistle even blows.
Why should I wager on the Heisman Trophy at Kalshi?
Kalshi offers four unique advantages over traditional sportsbooks:
- Flexibility: Unlike a "locked-in" bet, you can sell your contract at any time.
- Transparency: You trade against other users, which can allow you to find better value.
- Federal regulation: As a CFTC-regulated exchange, your funds are held in a secure, transparent environment.
- Availability: Kalshi is available in many regions where traditional sportsbooks aren't yet legal.
