It’s not the third Saturday in September, but the Florida Gators will play host to the rival Tennessee Volunteers in The Swamp this weekend. And with this game being pushed from its normal date, the only thing on the line in this rivalry game is pride.
One guy who is going to ball out no matter the situation is Joey Aguilar, and my Tennessee vs. Florida predictions highlight a player prop that I love for the Vols’ QB. That and more college football picks for this November 22 clash below.
Tennessee vs Florida prediction
Tennessee vs Florida best bet: Joey Aguilar Over 272.5 passing yards (-114)
Despite a 7-3 record, it’s definitely been a disappointing season for the Tennessee Volunteers, and you had the feeling it was going to be this way the second that collapse against Georgia was final.
Since then, they’ve dropped matchups against Alabama and Oklahoma, meaning the Volunteers have lost their three toughest games of the season. Luckily for them, the Florida Gators probably don’t qualify as tough.
The Gators enter this matchup at 3-7. They’ve put up some decent fights against the likes of Georgia and Mississippi, but they’ve also been blown out by Kentucky. So, it’s hard to know what you’re going to get from them.
Florida is led by its defense, but you can tell the tumultuous nature of this season is wearing on the unit, particularly when defending the pass. The Gators now rank 73rd in defensive success rate on dropbacks and 68th in EPA per dropback.
That means Tennessee QB Joey Aguilar should be able to attack this Gators defense through the air. Aguilar has been a good fit in Josh Heupel’s system, throwing for 2,941 yards and 22 touchdowns so far this season.
He is averaging 294.1 passing yards per game, and yet he’s got a passing yards prop sitting at 272.5. It's a number he’s eclipsed in five of his last nine games overall.
Aguilar has also proven he can put up big numbers against strong defensive teams, throwing for 300+ yards in games against Georgia and Oklahoma.
I’m betting Aguilar goes Over this modest passing yard prop in this rivalry game this Saturday.
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Tennessee vs Florida same-game parlay
If Florida is going to have any chance here, it’s going to have to control the tempo with the run game. And they’ll have the opportunity to do that against a Tennessee defense that ranks 120th in success rate against the rush.
That should mean a solid day at the office for Gators’ lead back Jadan Baugh. Baugh has rushed for 808 yards at 4.9 yards per carry and six scores, and has topped 100 yards three times this season. I like him to go Over 80.5 yards in this matchup.
And while Florida has shown some fight at times this season, it's hard not to think that their motivation may be waning down the stretch. Aguilar and the Tennessee passing game will be too much for the Gators when all is said and done, allowing the Vols to not only win, but cover this spread.
Tennessee vs Florida SGP
- Joey Aguilar Over 272.5 passing yards
- Jaden Baugh Over 80.5 rushing yards
- Tennessee -3.5
Our deep-ball SGP: Staley scores
Staley has become one of Aguilar's favorite targets recently. He's hauled in 32 balls for 439 yards over his last five games and has four TDs in his last four. I like him to find the end zone again here.
Tennessee vs Florida SGP
- Joey Aguilar Over 272.5 passing yards
- Jaden Baugh Over 80.5 rushing yards
- Tennessee -3.5
- Braylon Staley anytime TD
Tennessee vs Florida odds
- Spread: Tennessee -3.5 | Florida +3.5
- Moneyline: Tennessee -184 | Florida +154
- Over/Under: Over 57.5 | Under 57.5
Tennessee vs Florida trend to know
Tennessee has hit the Over in 10 of their last 13 games for +6.70 Units and a 47% ROI. Find more college football betting trends for Tennessee vs Florida.
How to watch Tennessee vs Florida
| Location | Ben Hill Griffin Stadium, Gainesville, FL |
| Date | Saturday, November 22, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ABC |
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