Technically, Arkansas State is still alive in the Sun Belt West race, but it would require Southern Miss to lose twice over the final two weeks — a slim path at best.
Coming off an idle week, the Red Wolves’ focus could waver, and that’s a dangerous recipe against Louisiana’s run-heavy offense.
My Louisiana vs. Arkansas State predictions call for a slowed, controlled game — one dictated by the road underdog.
Read more in my college football picks for Thursday, November 20.
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Louisiana vs Arkansas State prediction
Louisiana vs Arkansas State best bet: Under 54.5 (-114)
Louisiana still has hopes of reaching a bowl game, needing to win each of its final two games to do so. With all due respect to UL-Monroe, this should be the greater test.
The Ragin’ Cajuns have neared bowl hopes by winning their last two games despite being short underdogs in each of them, and those wins came courtesy of an increased emphasis on the rushing game.
Louisiana has run more often than most teams all season, ranking No. 11 in relative rate per CFB-graphs.com. That peaked at 18.0% above expected in the win over South Alabama, while last week’s victory against Texas State featured a more modest 12.3% — still the Cajuns’ second-highest rate of the season.
Even though Arkansas State has many flaws, its rush defense is actually decent. Far from good, mind you, but it rates in the middle of the Sun Belt and is far better than its passing defense.
As the Cajuns insist on running the ball, that should lead to some Red Wolves’ defensive successes, eating up clock and shortening this game.
Arkansas State’s offense isn’t strong enough — and statistically, it’s worse than Louisiana’s defense and plays directly into the Cajuns’ No. 5 conference ranking in EPA per dropback — to push this total anywhere close on its own.
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Louisiana vs Arkansas State same-game parlay
Louisiana has the better offense where it matters most, as well as the better defense where it matters most.
Trusting the better team in scoring territory as a plus-money underdog makes easy sense, and if the Ragin’ Cajuns do indeed shorten this game, it will most likely be via handoffs to running back Bill Davis, who has cleared this prop in two of their last four games.
Louisiana vs Arkansas State SGP
- Under 54.5
- Louisiana moneyline
- Bill Davis Over 63.5 rushing yards
Our deep-ball SGP: Perry Punches One In
As Louisiana scores 3.39 points per quality drive, junior running back Zylan Perry has often played the key role where it matters most, scoring seven times this season and in five of his last seven games.
Louisiana vs Arkansas State SGP
- Under 54.5
- Louisiana moneyline
- Bill Davis Over 63.5 rushing yards
- Zylan Perry anytime touchdown
Louisiana vs Arkansas State game predictions
Louisiana vs Arkansas State moneyline prediction
The underdog has more tangible motivation (bowl eligibility), more recent momentum (a two-game winning streak), and a more distinct identity (running the ball).
Furthermore, Louisiana fares better in scoring territory on both sides of the ball.
Louisiana vs Arkansas State spread prediction
This spread doesn’t leave much room for the underdog to cover without winning outright.
Then again, with bowl eligibility on the line, a close game could come down to a two-point conversion from Louisiana, which would mean the Cajuns are within the spread.
Louisiana vs Arkansas State Over/Under prediction
Arkansas State ranks No. 36 in the country in relative passing rate, but it now goes against a defense that fares quite well against the pass, well enough that opponents run against it at the No. 11 highest relative rate.
The Red Wolves’ offensive failures should only further the confidence in this Under.
Louisiana vs Arkansas State odds
- Spread: Louisiana +2.5 (-110) | Arkansas State -2.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Louisiana +116 | Arkansas State -136
- Over/Under: Over 54.5 (-110) | Under 54.5 (-110)
Louisiana vs Arkansas State trend to know
The Red Wolves' last eight games have all gone Under their totals by an average of 10.7 points. Find more college football betting trends for Louisiana vs Arkansas State.
How to watch Louisiana vs Arkansas State
| Location | Centennial Bank Stadium, Jonesboro, AR |
| Date | Thursday, November 20, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Louisiana vs Arkansas State latest injuries
Louisiana vs Arkansas State weather
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Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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