It is the penultimate week of the college football regular season, where teams are distinctly sorted into haves and have-nots.
For this week’s card, my college football best bets are focused on a pair of ACC teams that still have something to play for and are being undervalued. Meanwhile, the Oregon Ducks will continue to fly on the ground against USC.
For even more Week 12 college football picks, check out Douglas Farmer’s college football predictions.
College football best bets Week 13
Davison 60+ rushing yards
Duke -6.5
Cal -3.5
Jordon Davison 60+ rushing yards
We’ve got a Pac-12 Memorial Game with College Football Playoff implications this weekend when the USC Trojans visit the Oregon Ducks.
A spot in the College Football Playoff will be a near certainty if Dan Lanning and the 9-1 Ducks can pull off a win against one of their oldest rivals. But Lincoln Riley and USC have their own plans. At 8-2 and ranked 15th, an upset over Oregon could shake up the CFP rankings.
While the Trojans have an explosive offense led by QB Jayden Maiava, the Ducks are a bad matchup for them.
Not only does Oregon have an elite pass defense, it has arguably the best running game in the country. The trio of Noah Whittingham, Dierre Hill Jr, and Jordon Davison have looked unstoppable.
Together, they lead the nation in EPA per rush and success rate on rushes, and now they go against one of the worst rush defenses in the country. USC ranks 122nd in defensive success vs. the rush and 76th in EPA per rush.
That has me looking at rushing props for Davison. The freshman who is built like a truck has seen his role increase of late. He has rumbled for 370 yards at 8.6 yards per carry over the last five games.
Fading this USC run defense has been profitable the last several weeks, and that won’t change this week. Take Davison to go for 60+ rushing yards at plus money.
Duke -6.5
The Duke Blue Devils' ACC title and College Football Playoff hopes were dashed with last week’s crushing loss to Virginia. But that doesn’t mean they are all of a sudden going to give one away against one of the worst teams in college football.
Yes, we’ve got another fade of North Carolina incoming.
Despite this being a disappointing season for the Blue Devils, they still have something to play for. Manny Diaz is still building toward something with this squad, led by quarterback Darian Mensah and getting to a bowl this season is the first step.
Mensah has generally been really good, he just picked a horrible time to have his worst two games of the season. Overall, Duke ranks 26th in EPA per play on offense and 38th in offensive success rate.
North Carolina has some solid defensive numbers, but it has arguably played just two quarterbacks who can attack you through the air. TCU’s Josh Hoover and Clemson’s Cade Klubnik. The Tar Heels gave up 38 and 48 points in those games.
But UNC’s real problem is on offense. The Tar Heels enter this game ranked 116th in EPA per play and 119th in success rate. They have scored more than 20 points just twice this season and last week’s game against Wake Forest may have been the best evidence that this team has just given up.
They scored just 12 points on 4.2 yards per play. The Tar Heels won’t be able to keep up with the Blue Devils here. Duke should be favored by more than a touchdown in this matchup, so I’ll happily lay the 6.5.
Cal -3.5
Let’s stick with another undervalued ACC team with an up-and-coming quarterback as the California Golden Bears visit the Stanford Cardinal in yet another Pac-12 Memorial game.
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele continues to impress. JKS went 30-for-47 for 323 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions in an upset road win over Louisville last week, and I’m betting he keeps cooking against the Cardinal.
Stanford enters this game at 3-7 and has lost four of its last five overall, where the Cardinal have scored an average of just 14.4 points per game. That equates to an offense that ranks 102nd in EPA per play and 125th in success rate. Cal’s defense has been solid, ranking 48th in the country in success rate.
Stanford’s defense has been nearly as bad, particularly when it comes to stopping the pass. Stanford ranks 93rd in defensive success rate on dropbacks and 92nd on EPA per pass.
All this to say, it’s hard to see why Cal is favored by just 3.5 points in this matchup. Stanford may still be getting a little overvalued for its performance against Florida State a few weeks ago.
Cal and JKS are building toward something. Stanford is still working with an interim coaching staff. The Golden Bears edge in QB play will get the job done and cover this short spread.
Triple Option Parlay for Week 13
Jordon Davison 60+ rushing yards
Duke -6.5
Cal -3.5
My weekly Triple Option column is 16-17 this season for -1.8 units.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
