Why wait until Saturday? We’ve got a must-watch Friday night showdown in Las Vegas as the UNLV Rebels host the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors, a battle between two teams tied for second in the Mountain West at 4–2.
This matchup carries major implications in the conference race, and with a spread under a field goal and a total in the mid-60s, we should be in for a wide-open, highly entertaining game.
Here’s why I’m bullish on Micah Alejado’s player props, and how I’m attacking this matchup in my Hawaii vs. UNLV predictions and college football picks for Friday, November 21.
Hawaii vs UNLV prediction
Hawaii vs UNLV best bet: Micah Alejado Over 315.5 passing yards (-114)
The Hawaii Rainbow Warriors have been on fire, winning four of their last five games to position themselves for the Mountain West race to end the regular season. A big part of their success is derived from the arm of quarterback Micah Alejado, who's thrown 15 touchdowns and just three interceptions in his last five contests.
The diminutive lefty has thrown for big yardage against Air Force (457), Utah State (413), and San Jose State (367). In what’s expected to be a shootout against the UNLV Rebels (total of 64.5), Alejado will need to produce another vintage outing for Hawaii to keep its dreams alive.
His passing yardage prop is set at 315.5 at FanDuel. That may seem like a monstrous figure until you consider his recent performance and the favorable matchup.
Alejado is averaging 358.8 passing yards across his last five games and stands a good chance of continuing his lucrative run against a miserable UNLV defense that surrenders 6.6 yards per play.
The Rebels check in at 117th in EPA per play allowed and have been beaten through the air by much worse passing teams than Hawaii (i.e., Idaho State, Miami (OH), New Mexico).
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Hawaii vs UNLV same-game parlay
Pofele Ashlock has been Alejado’s most-targetted (92) receiver, handling 30 more targets than any other teammate. Ashlock averages 63.3 receiving yards per game and forecasts for an above-average performance in what’s expected to be a shootout between two potent offenses and two suspect defenses.
Hawaii’s defense has been the better of the two teams, ranking 36th in success rate allowed, so I’m backing the Warriors after a very impressive 38-6 throttling of San Diego State.
Hawaii vs UNLV SGP
- Micah Alejado Over 315.5 passing yards
- Pofele Ashlock Over 57.5 receiving yards
- Hawaii +2.5
Our deep-ball SGP: Man on the run
UNLV quarterback Anthony Colandrea averages 51.3 rushing yards per game, and his legs may be needed with star running back Jai’Den Thomas’ status in doubt after missing last week’s game. Hawaii has struggled to stop opponents on the ground, ranking 123rd in PFF’s run defense metric and 120th in tackling.
Hawaii vs UNLV SGP
- Micah Alejado Over 315.5 passing yards
- Pofele Ashlock Over 57.5 receiving yards
- Hawaii +2.5
- Over 64.5
- Anthony Colandrea Over 33.5 rushing yards
Hawaii vs UNLV game predictions
Hawaii vs UNLV moneyline prediction
Hawaii will pull off the minor upset on the road, moving to 8-3 in a breakthrough season for coach Timmy Chang.
Hawaii vs UNLV spread prediction
Hawaii is 5-1 ATS in its last six games and will cover the spread again against a UNLV team that doesn’t play much defense and is extremely fortunate to be 8-2.
Hawaii vs UNLV Over/Under prediction
This game will go Over the total as Hawaii’s offense stays rolling against UNLV’s suspect defense, turning this game into a shootout.
Hawaii vs UNLV odds
- Spread: Hawaii +2.5 | UNLV -2.5
- Moneyline: Hawaii +120 | UNLV -140
- Over/Under: Over 64.5 | Under 64.5
Hawaii vs UNLV trend to know
UNLV has covered the spread just once in its five home games this season. Find more college football betting trends for Hawaii vs UNLV.
How to watch Hawaii vs UNLV
| Location | Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, NV |
| Date | Friday, November 21, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 10:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | FS1 |
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Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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