Florida State’s upset of Alabama seems like a distant memory now, a moment when the Seminoles briefly shook up the college football landscape. But everything since has trended downward.
FSU has won only four games since that high point and enters Friday night’s matchup with NC State at 5-5, with a bowl berth on the line for both sides.
However, my Florida State vs. NC State predictions and college football picks for Friday, November 21, include Seminoles QB Tommy Castellanos airing it out on the way to earning that bowl berth.
Florida State vs NC State prediction
Florida State vs NC State best bet: Tommy Castellanos Over 235.5 passing yards (-114)
Florida State Seminoles quarterback Tommy Castellanos came into this season with a ton of bravado, basically saying, "Don’t be surprised when the Seminoles upset the Crimson Tide."
When it actually happened, the college football world was stunned and briefly cooled off head coach Mike Norvell’s hot seat. They started the season 3-0, but then dropped four straight games before winning two of the last three.
While the Seminoles have some issues, Castellanos has been mostly solid. The dual-threat QB has done well in Gus Malzahn’s offense, throwing for 2,317 yards with 12 touchdowns and six interceptions, while adding another 404 yards and eight scores on the ground.
The Seminoles' signal-caller has really started to sling it better lately, averaging 246.1 passing yards over his last seven games, and he should keep cooking against a NC State Wolfpack secondary that has been burned like toast.
The Wolfpack are also 5-5 and have dropped three of their last four overall, with the pass defense being a big problem.
During this four-game stretch, NC State has been torched for 367 passing yards against Miami, 408 against Georgia Tech, 423 against Pitt, and 342 against Notre Dame. Overall, the Wolfpack rank 78th in EPA per dropback and 79th in defensive success rate on dropbacks.
Castellanos’ passing prop sits at 235.5, a number he’s topped in six of his last seven games, and he should cruise Over it once again against this suspect Wolfpack secondary.
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Florida State vs NC State same-game parlay
Castellanos’ favorite target is WR Duce Robinson, an explosive deep ball threat who's caught 49 balls for 947 yards and five scores. That’s nearly 20 yards per reception, and NC State has been susceptible to giving up explosive plays. Robinson has scored in two of the last three games, and I like him to find the end zone once again.
With that in mind, Florida State is playing the better football at the moment between these two ACC foes.
The Seminoles have solid wins over Wake Forest and Virginia Tech in the last three weeks, while the Wolfpack have allowed at least 36 points in four straight games. Florida State will set the tone with its offense and get just enough stops on defense to win and cover this spread.
Florida State vs NC State SGP
- Tommy Castellanos Over 235.5 passing yards
- Duce Robinson anytime touchdown
- Florida State -4.5
Our deep-ball SGP: Not exactly a defensive masterclass
Florida State won't win by shutout, and while the Seminoles' pass defense isn't as bad as NC State's, Wolfpack WR Justin Joly, who has scored five TDs, will be a problem.
Florida State vs NC State SGP
- Tommy Castellanos Over 235.5 passing yards
- Duce Robinson anytime touchdown
- Florida State -4.5
- Justin Joly anytime touchdown
Florida State vs NC State game predictions
Florida State vs NC State moneyline prediction
Things have not gone as planned for Florida State, pretty much since its season-opening win against Alabama. But the Seminoles have won two of three and face an NC State defense that has been dismantled over the last month.
Florida State vs NC State spread prediction
Florida State will not only win the game but also cover the spread. Castellanos will carve up the NC State pass defense, and the Wolfpack won't keep up.
Florida State vs NC State Over/Under prediction
In theory, I like the Over. The Seminoles should do plenty of scoring. But the number of 61.5 is a little too high when you consider how inconsistent the Wolfpack offense has been.
Florida State vs NC State odds
- Spread: Florida State -4.5 | NC State +4.5
- Moneyline: Florida State -192 | NC State +162
- Over/Under: Over 61.5 | Under 61.5
Florida State vs NC State trend to know
NC State has only hit the 1H Moneyline in 3 of their last 12 games -10.75 Units and a -52% ROI. Find more college football betting trends for Florida State vs NC State.
How to watch Florida State vs NC State
| Location | Carter-Finley Stadium, Raleigh, NC |
| Date | Friday, November 21, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
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