Missouri vs Oklahoma Prediction, Picks & Odds for November 22 — College Football Week 13

With one upset of Alabama, the Oklahoma Sooners launched themselves from outside the College Football Playoff into position to host a first-round game … if they can win their final two games of the season, and neither is a sure thing.

The Missouri Tigers may enjoy the return of their starting quarterback, one of a few reasons to expect this game to stay close.

My Missouri vs. Oklahoma predictions do not rule out the comical outcome of the Sooners following up last week’s upset of Alabama with a home loss of their own.

Let's get into my college football picks before kickoff comes at 12pm ET on Saturday, November 22.

Missouri vs Oklahoma prediction

Missouri vs Oklahoma best bet: Missouri +7.5 (-120)

The Oklahoma Sooners reaching the College Football Playoff would be a joy. The Sooners may feature the best defensive front in the country, one that creates chaos and puts the offense in good position. Then quarterback John Mateer can dazzle with sidearm throws or reckless runs.

But if Oklahoma reaches the Playoff, the immediate worry will be its offense where it matters most. The Sooners struggle in scoring territory, averaging just 3.05 points per quality drive, No. 102 in the country, per CFB-graphs.com.

That is an indictment, if not also an unexpected indictment for an offense featuring one of the most creative playmakers in the country in Mateer. Oklahoma simply does not consistently turn quality drives into touchdowns.

Look at the Sooners’ losses: They did not manage a touchdown against Texas and they averaged 1.75 points per quality drive against Mississippi. In last week’s upset of Alabama, they again averaged 1.75 points per quality drive.

That can be survived when the defense scores, like it did last week against the Tide, but when the defense does not find the end zone, those offensive failures loom large.

Expect Missouri to thus play it safe on Saturday. Tigers head coach Eli Drinkwitz will act savvy enough to protect the ball and see how Oklahoma reacts.

The Sooners’ inability to finish drives ruins any confidence in them covering a spread of more than a touchdown against a quality opponent, a position Oklahoma has not actually been in yet this season.

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Missouri vs Oklahoma same-game parlay

Oklahoma's struggles finishing drives lead to a John Mateer emphasis in the red zone, hence his rushing touchdowns in six of his nine games this season.

Missouri vs Oklahoma SGP

• Missouri +7.5
• Oklahoma Team Total Under 24.5
• John Mateer Touchdown

Our deep-ball SGP: Don't expect much from Sooners offense

John Mateer has fallen short of this passing yardage prop in four of his five games since returning from hand surgery, managing all of 223 in the exception against Mississippi.

This is not necessarily a reflection of Mateer's health so much as it is the quality of Oklahoma's offense, or lack thereof, when facing quality defenses.

Missouri vs Oklahoma SGP

• Missouri +7.5
• Oklahoma Team Total Under 24.5
• John Mateer Touchdown
• Under 41.5
• John Mateer Under 217.5 Passing Yards

Missouri vs Oklahoma odds

• Spread: Missouri +7.5 | Oklahoma -7.5
• Moneyline: Missouri +198 | Oklahoma -240
• Over/Under: Over 41.5 | Under 41.5

Missouri vs Oklahoma trend to know

Pribula’s last four starts all went Under their totals and by an average of 9.6 points. Find more college football betting trends for Missouri vs Oklahoma.

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Missouri vs Oklahoma weather

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