Ohio State and Ohio face off in an in-state showdown Saturday night at the Horseshoe.
This marks their first meeting in 15 years, with the last encounter in 2010 ending in a 43-7 victory for the Buckeyes.
Both teams come into this game riding wins—Ohio pulling off a minor upset over West Virginia, and OSU lighting up Grambling with 70 points. Expect this matchup to be much more competitive for the Buckeyes.
My Ohio vs. Ohio State predictions break it all down as I bring you my college football picks for Saturday, September 13.
Ohio vs Ohio State prediction
Ohio vs Ohio State best bet: Parker Navarro Under 32.5 rushing yards (-114)
As the self-proclaimed leader of the Parker Navarro fan club, I take no joy in this, but the value on the under 32.5 rushing yards cannot be ignored.
The senior signal-caller has likely never faced a defense of this quality in his college career. The closest comparison came his sophomore year against Penn State. He actually went over this rushing total then, despite one sack—but with a huge caveat.
Navarro was used off the bench for specialty packages, and his speed and mobility had not yet been put on film. He had the advantage of catching Penn State by surprise.
That’s best evidenced by what happened a week later against Iowa State when the Ohio Bobcats used him similarly, and he had two carries for -30 rushing yards along with two sacks.
After topping 80 rushing yards in both games this season against power-four competition (Rutgers, West Virginia), he will not be catching Ohio State off guard.
I suspect the game plan will force him into being a pocket passer—and I expect them to succeed. What really tilts things in our favor is the sacks. Navarro can, and likely will, rip off a few solid runs and still go under this number because of them.
And the Buckeyes should get plenty, facing an offensive line ranking in the bottom 40th percentile of havoc allowed. That’s a death wish against a defensive front that will be bigger and have better athletes than them.
Ohio vs Ohio State same-game parlay
We’re taking Jeremiah Smith to catch a touchdown and eclipse the century mark for this same-game parlay.
The Ohio defense has been average overall but they’ve specifically struggled through two games stopping explosive passing plays ranking in the bottom 30th percentile.
That will be music to Smith’s ears.
Ohio vs Ohio State SGP
- Parker Navarro Under 32.5 rushing yards
- Jeremiah Smith anytime touchdown
- Jeremiah Smith Over 95.5 receiving yards
Our deep-ball SGP: Navarro To The Endzone
We’re going for an absolutely massive payout here. Even though I’m down on Navarro’s rushing yards because of the sack likelihood, I still think it’s reasonable for him to score.
Mainly because Ohio is going to trust very little other options on their view visits to the redzone.
I’m pairing it with an Ohio cover, which, as mentioned above, mostly comes down to the slight value I see on my projections.
Ohio vs Ohio State SGP
- Parker Navarro Under 32.5 rushing yards
- Jeremiah Smith anytime touchdown
- Jeremiah Smith Over 95.5 receiving yards
- Parker Navarro anytime touchdown
- Ohio +30.5
Ohio vs Ohio State game predictions
Ohio vs Ohio State moneyline prediction
Ohio State ML
Ohio is a very strong group of five team but there will be no upset here.
Ohio vs Ohio State spread prediction
Ohio +30.5
My projections see two points of value here on the spread and I’ll lean towards the Bobcats. They have enough quality at the skillset positions to keep this within the number, especially once the Buckeyes backups come in.
Ohio vs Ohio State Over/Under prediction
Under 50.5
Unless forced, I expect Ohio State not to show a ton offensively with the Big Ten slate waiting on deck. On the other side may very well be the best defense in the country.
Ohio vs Ohio State odds
- Spread: Ohio +29.5 (-110) | Ohio State -29.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Ohio +2200 | Ohio State -10000
- Over/Under: Over 50.5 (-110) | Under 50.5 (-110)
Ohio vs Ohio State trend to know
Ohio have covered the 1Q Spread in 7 of their last 8 away games (+5.95 Units / 59% ROI). Find more college football betting trends for Ohio vs Ohio State.
How to watch Ohio vs Ohio State
| Location | Ohio Stadium, Columbus, OH |
| Date | Saturday, September 13, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | Peacock |
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