The Friday college football slate is slim but includes a three-pack of fun matchups and potential upsets on Oct. 16.
Leading off my top Week 7 Friday night football picks is a Memphis team that's been playing like a Group of Six College Football Playoff contender and is the only favorite I like on Friday.
My other Friday college football picks focus on a prove-it game for Purdue against an underachieving Washington squad and an Appalachian State vs. Coastal Carolina matchup that should live up to the "Fun Belt" nickname.
Week 7 Friday night college football picks
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| Matchup | Pick |  Probability |
|---|---|---|
 Memphisvs  Tulane |
-6.5 |
54% |
 Washingtonvs  Purdue |
+3.5 |
51% |
 Appalachian Statevs  Coastal Carolina |
ML |
48% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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CFB Friday night picks this week
Memphis vs Tulane: Memphis -6.5
Charles Huff has had no problem turning Memphis into a CFP contender in his first season leading the Tigers.
Memphis is 5-1 straight-up and 4-1 ATS against FBS opponents, with its lone loss coming on the road against a juggernaut Boise State program. The Tigers can cover up to -9.5 against this struggling Tulane team.
The Green Wave have fallen off in Year 1 under Will Hall and are 2-3, with an offense that ranks 129th in success rate (35.9%). Tulane's inability to score (18.4 points per game) is going to kill any shot it has against a Memphis defense that leads the American in sacks (15).
A bigger mismatch comes on the other side of the matchup, though, with Memphis boasting one of the most prolific offenses in the G6. QB Marcus Stokes is 20th nationally in QBR (80.9) and leads a Tigers offense ranked eighth in the country in net EPA per play. Meanwhile, Tulane's defense sits just 105th in pass success rate (47.7%).
Washington vs Purdue: Washington +3.5
Purdue isn't as good as its 3-3 record, and Washington isn't as bad as its 3-3 record, and I think that will show in this matchup — I like the Huskies to cover +2.5 or better on the road.
An outright win might be a stretch, but Washington's defense is one of the best Purdue has seen this season, and the Boilermakers' defense is one of the worst the Huskies have seen. Purdue has played two teams with defenses ranked in the Top 35 by SP+; Washington's defense ranks 32nd.
Even if Demond Williams Jr. doesn't play for Washington (he's questionable), backup Elijah Brown (90.9 QBR against Iowa last week) can challenge a Purdue defense that is 123rd in EPA per pass and 128th in available yards percentage (60.2%).
Purdue's defense allows 400.7 yards per game, the seventh-most in the Power Four.
Appalachian State vs Coastal Carolina: Coastal Carolina moneyline
Last week, Appalachian State had one of the worst performances of any Group of Six team you'll see this season. At home against an Old Dominion team that had been outscored 152-68 in its previous four FBS games, App State managed three points in a seven-point loss. That's why I like Coastal Carolina outright as a 1.5-point underdog.
The Mountaineers' offense is so ineffective that it would almost be more productive to run the ball on every play to shorten games and help their defense. App State's offense ranks 122nd nationally in net adjusted EPA per play, 129th in rush success rate (37.2%), and starting QB Malachi Singleton is questionable with an ankle injury.
Coastal Carolina has been shaky in Ryan Beard's first season, but the Chanticleers have a real home-field advantage on the "Surf Turf," and freshman QB Deuce Bailey has shown real promise. Bailey is top 20 in the country in TD passes (13) and can do enough to win an ugly, low-scoring game.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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