Everybody's undefeated until Saturday.
Sixteen teams enter Week 0 with clean records, offseason optimism, and absolutely no evidence yet that everything they've spent the last eight months selling us will actually work. By Saturday night, half of them will have their first loss and the sky will be falling.
Here are my college football moneyline picks for every Week 0 game, with more analysis available in our college football picks.
College football moneyline picks for Week 0
| Matchup |  Probability |
|---|---|
 UNC vs  TCU |
74% |
 SJSU @  USC |
98% |
 NCST @  UVA |
36% |
 JVST @  NDSU |
70% |
 SAC @  EMU |
77% |
 HAW @  STAN |
37% |
 NMSU @  FSU |
98% |
 MEM @  UNLV |
63% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Expert Week 0 CFB moneyline picks
North Carolina vs TCU: TCU
There's plenty of optimism surrounding both new-look offenses, but I'm more willing to buy into TCU immediately. The Horned Frogs rushed for 258 yards against North Carolina last season, and a more physical approach under new OC Gordon Sammis should give Harvard transfer Jaden Craig a favorable setup in his first Power Four start.
San Jose State vs USC: USC
I really wanted to make a case for San Jose State, but the most I could come up with is that they do, in fact, have a football team. Not a very good one, but it's still a team. Unfortunately for the Spartans, USC is bigger, stronger, faster, and just flat-out better... as seen by the massive 38.5-point spread. Sure, anything can happen, but USC is trading at 98%, which is all you need to know.
NC State vs Virginia: NC State
I'm backing NC State to pull off the upset behind CJ Bailey, who threw for more than 3,100 yards and 25 touchdowns last season. NC State has also won four straight meetings with Virginia, including a 35-31 victory last year, and I'll take the proven quarterback at plus money against a Cavaliers team breaking in Beau Pribula.
Jacksonville State vs North Dakota State: North Dakota State
North Dakota State isn't your typical program making the jump from the FCS after going 12-1 last season, and I expect the Bison to look the part immediately. Jacksonville State's rushing attack will test them, but NDSU's strength in the trenches and a massive home-field advantage in Fargo should be enough to secure a win in its FBS debut.
Sacramento State vs Eastern Michigan: Eastern Michigan
There's a ton of change surrounding Sacramento State as it enters its first FBS season with a new head coach and 75 new players on the roster. Meanwhile, Eastern Michigan brings back Noah Kim after he led the MAC in passing yards last season, and that continuity at quarterback should help the Eagles take care of business at home.
Hawaii vs Stanford: Hawaii
If there's one Week 0 team I'm willing to believe in early, it's Hawaii. QB Micah Alejado gives the Rainbow Warriors plenty of reason for optimism entering 2026, and against a Stanford program still searching for answers, I'll back Hawaii to start the season by making an early statement on the road.
New Mexico State vs Florida State: Florida State
I also wanted to build out a case for New Mexico State as the underdog at 2%, because who doesn't love chaos, but the Aggies are void of any real firepower in this fight. Florida State might not be what we think they are, but I can assure you this: If Mike Norvell loses this game, he will be strapped to a rocket and sent to Mars by morning.
Memphis vs UNLV: UNLV
Both teams enter Week 0 believing they can contend for a conference title, but I'm more comfortable buying what Dan Mullen is building at UNLV. Jackson Arnold and Alex Orji give the Rebels two experienced options at quarterback, while Memphis enters Saturday with considerably more uncertainty under center.
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