The Buffalo Bills are -4.5 road favorites over the reeling Las Vegas Raiders defense ahead of their 4:25 p.m. ET kickoff at Allegiant Stadium on Sunday, Oct. 18.
My favorite Bills vs. Raiders predictions and NFL picks call for MVP candidate Josh Allen to have a monster afternoon and lead Buffalo to covering the spread in Week 6.
TOP Pick
Bills vs Raiders prediction: Bills -4.5
The Buffalo Bills offense is too much for the Las Vegas Raiders to handle, and I recommend the Bills to -5.5.
Las Vegas has allowed the highest offensive success rate and third-highest EPA per play while surrendering 34 points per game over the past three weeks. Additionally, after posting the second-highest sack rate (11.8%) across the first two weeks of the year, the Raiders have dipped to a 12th-ranked 4.3% mark during the slide.
A reeling Raiders defense going against Buffalo quarterback Josh Allen is trouble. Allen has the Bills ranked second in DVOA, first in EPA per play and averaging a league-high 32.8 points per game, after all.
Buffalo also stayed on the West Coast to avoid a cross-country turnaround after topping the Los Angeles Rams 37-34 in overtime on Monday Night Football, so I’m happy to lay the wood with Allen & Co. against a soft Vegas defense.
COVERS INTEL: The Bills have the highest offensive explosive play rate, and the Raiders defense has allowed the eighth-highest explosive play rate.
Bills vs Raiders combo
Allen has aired it out for a high-end 9.1 yards per attempt and a 9.6 aDoT through five weeks, and he’s ran for 5.6 yards per carry, including 3.67 yards after contact per carry.
It's also the perfect matchup for one of the betting favorites in the NFL MVP odds to pad his stat line, with the Raiders allowing 8.1 YPA and 6.1 yards per carry to QBs during the noted three-week stretch.
Bills vs Raiders combo
- Bills -4.5
- Josh Allen 250+ passing yards
- Josh Allen 30+ rushing yards
Bills vs Raiders touchdown scorer: Dalton Kincaid
In addition to the highlighted Las Vegas defensive shortcomings, covering tight ends has been a problem. The Raiders have surrendered six touchdowns and the third-highest catch rate to the position through five weeks.
Bills tight end Dalton Kincaid has been quiet for three straight weeks, and head coach Joe Brady said he needs to do a better job of involving Kincaid in the offense after the tight end has only been targeted twice in consecutive weeks.
Of course, Kincaid also sports an elite 17.3 yards per reception, 11.8 aDoT, and Allen has a high-end 133.5 NFL passer rating when targeting the go-to tight end.
I recommend Kincaid to score to 40%.
- Top picks: 31-26, +3.79 units
- Combos: 0-12, -12 units
Bills vs Raiders odds
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Spread: Bills -4.5 | Raiders -4.5
- Over/Under: Over 53.5 (50%) | Under 53.5 (51%)
- Moneyline: Bills 68% | Raiders 33%
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Bills vs Raiders weather
Allegiant Stadium is a fully enclosed, climate-controlled dome.
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Bills vs Raiders trend to know
The Buffalo Bills are 4-1 against the spread this season, including 2-0 on the road. Find more NFL betting trends for Bills vs. Raiders.
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How to watch Bills vs Raiders
| Location | Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, Nev. |
| Date | Sunday, Oct. 18, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 4:25 p.m. ET |
| TV | CBS |
Bills vs Raiders latest injuries
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