My Chargers vs. Chiefs predictions are calling for Los Angeles' low-scoring offense to help keep the game total Under, while Xavier Worthy shines on the other side.
Sunday's AFC West battle kicks off at 4:25 p.m. ET on CBS. Don't miss our free NFL picks for Sunday, Oct. 18.
Chargers vs Chiefs prediction today: Under 41.5
I'm confident in a Kansas City Chiefs win, but the spread concerns me, so I'm tackling the Under because I'm not confident in the Los Angeles Chargers' offense.
This unit ranks 32nd in EPA per play and 32nd in EPA per drive. The passing game hasn't gotten going under Mike McDaniel, defying preseason expectations.
The Chargers rank 32nd in Pass EPA per play, and even the rushing game, a cornerstone of the Jim Harbaugh philosophy, isn't working, with a 19th-place success rate in the NFL. The biggest issue is the offensive line, a unit missing key pieces, and the remaining pieces are still underperforming.
The Under is 7-1 in the Chargers' past eight games, and despite this Chiefs offense looking impressive, it won't be enough to push the total high enough to cover, especially with Rashee Rice out.
COVERS INTEL: The Los Angeles Chargers have only allowed seven passing touchdowns this season. 
Chargers vs Chiefs combo
Given that I expect a low-scoring game, I'm going to be cautious and play a three-leg parlay on the Chiefs here. I do love two touchdown scorers for the home team, though.
Kenneth Walker has scored six touchdowns across three of his four games this season. Xavier Worthy is also tied for second in red zone targets behind Walker and offers a serious RZ threat.
Chargers vs Chiefs combo
- Chiefs -7.5
- Kenneth Walker anytime touchdown
- Xavier Worthy anytime touchdown
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Chargers vs Chiefs player prop: Xavier Worthy Over 4.5 receptions
It still feels like things haven't really worked out for Xavier Worthy at the Chiefs yet, but they clearly believe in him because they keep trying to get the ball into his hands.
In their last game, he caught four of seven targets for an impressive 115 air yards. He's had six or more targets in all but one game this season, and with Rice sidelined, he should get a lot of targets on Sunday.
Chargers vs Chiefs touchdown scorer: Oronde Gadsden
Only three teams have allowed more touchdowns to opposing tight ends than the Chiefs, who are averaging one per game. The Chargers will be without Tre Harris, while Ladd McConkey, Quentin Johnston, and Brenen Thompson are all questionable.
Charlie Kolar might get the bulk of the tight end work, but Oronde Gadsden is the best pass-catcher, a real deep threat, and tied for the most red zone targets on the team.
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Chargers vs Chiefs market trends
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- Top picks: 0-1, -1.00 units
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Chargers vs Chiefs odds today
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- Spread: Chargers +7.5 | Chiefs -7.5
- Over/Under: Over 41.5 (49%) | Under 41.5 (52%)
- Moneyline: Chargers 22% | Chiefs 78%
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Chargers vs Chiefs weather
The conditions at Arrowhead will be fine, with temperatures in the mid-60s, clouds, and 10 mph winds.
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Chargers vs Chiefs trend to know
The Under is 5-0 in the previous five meetings between the teams in Kansas City. Find more NFL betting trends for Chargers vs. Chiefs.
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How to watch Chargers vs Chiefs today
| Location | Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, Mo. |
| Date | Sunday, Oct. 18, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 4:25 p.m. ET |
| TV | CBS |
Chargers vs Chiefs latest injuries
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