Mike Norvell and Florida State (-31.5) begin a watershed season in Week 0, hosting New Mexico State.
The Seminoles are loaded with offensive talent, and Tony White has coached effective defenses before. That formula will need to click against a daunting schedule.
See why I'm betting on a successful opener for Norvell's squad with my New Mexico State vs. Florida State prediction and college football picks for Saturday, Aug. 29 — with kickoff set for 7 p.m. ET on the CW.
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New Mexico State vs Florida State prediction: Florida State -31.5
Entering Year 7 firmly on the hot seat, Mike Norvell will have his team gunning for the end zone until the final whistle in an opener that Florida State must win by margin after consecutive disappointing campaigns.
There shouldn't be much pushback from New Mexico State, which featured an impotent offense last year (125th in EPA per play).
New starting quarterback Trey Hedden's 25:30 big-time throw-to-turnover-worthy pass ratio over the last two seasons at the FCS level hardly inspires confidence.
Tony White's defense should eat up the Aggies and an offensive line that returns only guard Mateo Rodriguez.
Offensively, the Seminoles will score repeatedly. They ranked 22nd in EPA per play last year and have the right pieces in place to be even more effective in 2026.
COVERS INTEL: New Mexico State lost its top three defensive tackles from a year ago. The replacements are all sub-300 pounds and will get bullied by a well-coached (Herb Hand) Florida State offensive line that ranked fifth in stuff rate a year ago and features 107 career starts. 
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New Mexico State vs Florida State same-game parlay (SGP)
The premise is that Florida State will get what it wants offensively while shutting down New Mexico State's scoring output.
The Seminoles' edge in the trenches should allow them to possess the ball for the majority of the contest. The Aggies couldn't block last year (134th in line yards, 134th in stuff rate) en route to an FBS-worst 2.6 yards per carry, and Hedden's underlying metrics don't paint him as the savior this offense needs.
Ashton Daniels will hit the tantalizing receiver duo of Duce Robinson and Macahi Danzy early and often, leading to a large first-half lead. From there, the trenches will do the work.
New Mexico State vs Florida State SGP
- Florida State 1H -17.5
- Florida State -31.5
- Under 53.5
New Mexico State vs Florida State odds
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Spread: New Mexico State +31.5 | Florida State -31.5
- Over/Under: Over 53.5 (52%) | Under 53.5 (53%)
- Moneyline: New Mexico State 2% | Florida State 98%
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New Mexico State vs Florida State weather
There's a 19% chance of precipitation early in the game and a 57% chance near the end. Rain wouldn't change the handicap much, but it would exacerbate Florida State's dominance on the ground and in the trenches.
Check out our college football weather page for up-to-date info on every matchup.
New Mexico State vs Florida State trend to know
Florida State is 4-0 to the Under in its last four games as a favorite. Find more college football betting trends for New Mexico State vs. Florida State.
How to watch New Mexico State vs Florida State
| Location | Doak Campbell Stadium, Tallahassee, FL |
| Date | Saturday, Aug. 29, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 7 p.m. ET |
| TV | CW |
New Mexico State vs Florida State latest injuries
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Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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