Year five of the Lincoln Riley era gets underway for USC (-38.5) as they host San Jose State on Saturday, Aug. 29, at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum.
My San Jose State vs. USC prediction and college football picks see the Trojans pulling away from one of the least experienced teams in the nation.
Kickoff set for 3 p.m. ET on NBC.
TOP PICK
San Jose State vs USC prediction: USC -38.5 (51% probability)
This is a squash match opener for USC, which ranks 16th in returning production and returns eight starters to an elite offense.
Jayden Maiava is back, along with two star running backs (Waymond Jordan, King Miller) and a veteran offensive line. This unit racked up 465.5 yards per game a year ago and should be just as potent in 2026 — starting against a San Jose State defense with no experience to mention.
It's a total rebuild year for Ken Niumatalolo as his Spartans rank 137th in returning production. Lincoln Riley has kept his foot on the gas when steamrolling overmatched opponents, toppling Missouri State 73-13 and Georgia Southern 59-20 a year ago and Utah State 48-0 in 2024.
It'll be more of the same in the opener. Play USC up to -40.
COVERS INTEL: USC returns eight starters to an offense that ranked fifth in EPA per play on standard downs and averaged 7.1 yards per play.
San Jose State vs USC same-game parlay (SGP)
USC's offense should find repeated success against a San Jose State defense that was already poor (98th in EPA per play last year) and returns less experience than all but two other teams.
The backfield duo of Jordan (5.2 yards after contact per attempt) and Miller (1,083 scrimmage yards) should positively feast. Even once the backups are in, the Trojans will get whatever they want on the ground against a soft defensive front that is a year removed from ranking 128th in stuff rate and 123rd in front seven havoc.
The Spartans play at a fast tempo (24th in snaps per minute), which should help them score.
Tanook Hines is listed with an "OR" on the depth chart and likely sees a snap count in the opener after returning to practice only recently.
San Jose State vs USC SGP
- USC -38.5
- Over 60.5
- Tanook Hines Under 80.5 receiving yards
San Jose State vs USC odds
For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Spread: San Jose State +38.5 | USC -38.5
- Over/Under: Over 60.5 (53%) | Under 60.5 (53%)
- Moneyline: San Jose State 1% | USC 99%
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San Jose State vs USC weather
It's expected to be a warm, sunny day; the weather won't affect the outcome.
Check out our college football weather page for up-to-date info on every matchup.
San Jose State vs USC trend to know
USC is 5-1 ATS in its last six non-conference games. Find more college football betting trends for San Jose State vs. USC.
How to watch San Jose State vs USC
| Location | Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum, Los Angeles, CA |
| Date | Saturday, Aug. 29, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 3 p.m. ET |
| TV | NBC |
San Jose State vs USC latest injuries
Check out our college football injuries page for updates on every team.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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