After losing four straight Little Brown Jug games under PJ Fleck, Minnesota looks to end its losing streak against Michigan on Saturday at noon ET (FOX).
The Wolverines are 5.5-point favorites, and my Michigan vs. Minnesota combos and college football picks are backing Kyle Whittingham's defense and Bryce Underwood's legs.
Best Michigan vs Minnesota combos
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Michigan vs Minnesota combo
Since 1968, the Michigan vs. Minnesota rivalry hasn't been much of a rivalry, with Minnesota going 44-4. Minnesota head coach PJ Fleck hasn't had any luck ending the Wolverines' dominance, either, losing all four games with the Little Brown Jug on the line.
Under Fleck, the Golden Gophers haven't been very competitive, going 1-3 ATS and losing by an average margin of 40.2-17 — and my Michigan vs. Minnesota prediction expects Fleck to add another tick in the loss column.
While the Wolverines just fell to Iowa on the final play, they outplayed the Hawkeyes and should have won by double digits. Even in the loss, the Wolverines allowed just 20 points, and seven of them came on a kick return touchdown.
Michigan's defense is ranked No. 9 by SP+ and sits eighth in EPA per rush, 24th in EPA per pass, and 16th in available yards percentage (33.6%).
Considering Minnesota's inability to run the ball (103rd in EPA per rush), the Wolverines can focus on stopping Drake Lindsey and win this one by 6+ points.
Michigan vs Minnesota player prop combo
If Michigan wants to retain the Little Brown Jug and cover the spread, it needs to stop Lindsey. Luckily, for the Wolverines faithful, Michigan has one of the best pass defenses in the country, led by veteran cornerbacks and a ferocious pass rush.
The Wolverines' defense ranks 11th nationally in pass success rate (33.9%), and its front seven has racked up 12 sacks and 71 pressures. That will make it difficult for Lindsey to throw for 215+ yards, something he's done just three times in his last 12 games.
It will be hard for Michigan to get production through the air, too, but wide receiver JJ Buchanan is an X-factor. The Utah transfer has been the Wolverines' best player this season (he caught the Hail Mary against Western Michigan) and ranks top 12 nationally in receiving yards (396) and touchdowns (4). Buchanan's size (6-foot-4) and ball skills (0 drops) should be a mismatch, especially near the end zone.
But the biggest key to a Michigan win might be Bryce Underwood's mobility. In Jason Beck's system, the former five-star's legs have been utilized far more consistently. He's averaging 48 rushing yards per game and sits 10th among QBs in forced missed tackles (14).
Minnesota's run defense has been underwhelming this season, ranking 107th in rush success rate (48.2%), so expect Underwood to be a large part of Michigan's run game.
- Combos: 4-13, -1.64 units
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