One of college football's oldest rivalries hits the field Saturday at noon ET (FOX) when Minnesota hosts Michigan at Huntington Bank Stadium in Minneapolis with the Little Brown Jug on the line.
The Wolverines have dominated the rivalry, and my Michigan vs. Minnesota predictions and college football picks expect that to continue, with Kyle Whittingham's program entering as 5.5-point favorites.
Michigan vs Minnesota predictions
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Early Michigan vs Minnesota spread pick: Michigan -5.5
Although Minnesota is coming off an impressive road win over Washington and Michigan just lost a heartbreaker on the final play to Iowa, I like the Wolverines to cover -5.5 or better in a rivalry they've historically dominated.
Since 1968, the Wolverines are 44-4 against the Golden Gophers in the Michigan vs. Minnesota rivalry and have covered the spread in nine of the last 12 matchups. Under PJ Fleck, Minnesota is 0-4 with the Little Brown Jug on the line, including 1-3 ATS. In those four games, the Gophers have been outscored by an average of 40.2 to 17.
This is Kyle Whittingham's first game in the rivalry, and Michigan's season has been shaky, but the Wolverines' defense can make the difference. Michigan's defense ranks eighth in EPA per rush, 24th in EPA per pass, and 16th in available yards percentage (33.6%).
This is by far the best defense Gophers quarterback Drake Lindsey has faced, and with Minnesota's non-existent run game (103rd in EPA per rush), the Wolverines can key in on stopping the pass.
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Early Michigan vs Minnesota total pick: Under 42.5
Both Michigan and Minnesota have quality defenses. The Wolverines rank No. 9 on defense by SP+ while the Gophers rank No. 6 in havoc rate (23.7%). Michigan has the overall better unit, but Minnesota's is more disruptive, which is why I like the Under at 42.5 or better.
With the quality of these defenses and the weather expected to have an impact (67% chance of precipitation), both offenses could struggle to score more than 20 points. While Michigan QB Bryce Underwood is coming off his best game, he still has one of the highest turnover-worthy play rates in the country (5.4%).
Meanwhile, Minnesota is averaging 20 ppg against Power Four opponents and continues to struggle to run the ball consistently. That puts a lot of pressure on Lindsey against a Michigan defense that's No. 8 in net EPA per play and No. 20 in pass success (37.4%).
I'm expecting an ugly start that ends in a 23-17 Michigan win.
Michigan vs Minnesota odds
- Michigan vs Minnesota spread: Michigan -5.5
- Michigan vs Minnesota moneyline: Michigan 65%, Minnesota 35%
- Michigan vs Minnesota Over/Under: 42.5
How to watch Michigan vs Minnesota
- Date: Saturday, Oct. 3, 2026, 12 p.m. ET
- City: Minneapolis, MN
- Venue: Huntington Bank Stadium
- TV: FOX
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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