NFL Week 4 forces survivor players to choose between chalk, timing, and future value.
My Week 4 Survivor Pool picks lean on the Minnesota Vikings and Baltimore Ravens at the top, while the Green Bay Packers offer a sharper contrarian angle.
Here’s how I rank the best paths to advancing and setting yourself up for the rest of the season in your NFL picks.
Week 4 Survivor Pool rankings
For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Pick |  Win Probability |
Why They'll Win |
|---|---|---|
1.  Vikings |
85% | The Dolphins are massive favorites to finish with the worst record in the NFL |
2.  Ravens |
87% | Baltimore is 15-0 straight-up as double-digit favorites since 2019 |
3.  Packers |
65% | Green Bay has a rest and prep edge, while Baker Mayfield is out with an injury |
4.  Bills |
75% | Buffalo is the Super Bowl favorite, and the Patriots sit just 31st in points per game |
5.  Seahawks |
77% | The Chargers are 29th in offensive EPA per play, while Seattle's defense ranks second in EPA per play |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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1. Vikings (vs Dolphins)
- Why to take them: The Minnesota Vikings defense is second in the NFL in points per game allowed and is mostly healthy, whereas the Miami Dolphins just lost star running back De'Von Achane to a season-ending injury.
- Why to save them: Perhaps you need to see more from Kyler Murray before using the Vikings in survivor. Murray currently has the second-worst passer rating among starting quarterbacks.
2. Ravens (vs Titans)
- Why to take them: Barring future injuries, this is the easiest game on the Baltimore Ravens' schedule, and who knows how much longer Lamar Jackson will be healthy.
- Why to save them: It's not really about "saving the Ravens," as much as it's about picking on the Dolphins. I have a hunch Tennessee covers the spread, and I won't use a team in survivor if I don't think they'll cover.
3. Packers (@ Buccaneers)
- Why to take them: The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are starting undrafted QB Jalon Daniels, while the Green Bay Packers need this game badly as the only NFC North team with a losing record.
- Why to save them: This is a road game, and the Packers have one of the strongest home-field advantages in the NFL. Micah Parsons will also return later this season.
4. Bills (vs Patriots)
- Why to take them: If you trust the market, the Buffalo Bills have the fourth-highest win probability in Week 4. Plus, the Bills may be less popular this week than they will be later in the season because they're playing a division rival that reached the Super Bowl last season.
- Why to save them: Buffalo has two games against the Dolphins remaining and hosts the Jets in Week 18, when the Bills could be playing for the No. 1 seed.
5. Seahawks (vs Chargers)
- Why to take them: Like Buffalo, the Seattle Seahawks may not be as popular this week, with most Survivor Pool entries likely going to the Vikings and Ravens.
- Why to save them: The Seahawks still have home games against the Cardinals, whom they slaughtered on the road, and the Giants, who will be without their starting quarterback and pass rusher Brian Burns.
Week 4 Survivor Pool strategy
I disagree with the market's assessment of the Bills and Seahawks having higher win probabilities than the Packers. Green Bay could offer contrarian value as a road underdog with a losing record and several key players sidelined.
Meanwhile, the New England Patriots and Los Angeles Chargers still have elite quarterback-coach combos, and Week 4 features must-win scenarios for both teams.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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