This rivalry looks fully reignited as the No. 3 Miami Hurricanes square off against the No. 18 Florida State Seminoles in a marquee Sunshine State showdown for Week 6.
Whether it’s where to lean on the spread, who’s hitting the end zone, or how the total shakes out, we’ve got all the angles covered with our Miami vs. Florida State predictions for Saturday, October 4.
Miami vs Florida State Week 6 predictions
- Miami -4.5 (-106 at FanDuel)
- Under 53.5 (-105 at FanDuel)
- Beck o1.5 passing TD (-158 at FanDuel)
- Sawchuk anytime TD (+130 at FanDuel)
Miami vs Florida State best bets
Miami -4.5 (-106 at FanDuel)
It should be acknowledged that if Miami can establish a lead, even just a 10-point lead, then Florida State could be in a heap of trouble. Advanced numbers suggest this spread should be between 6.5 and 7.5. The only logical reason it is notably lower than that is the expectation that the Seminoles will shorten the game.
But if the Hurricanes can get out ahead early, they can somewhat mitigate that Malzahn intention.
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Under 53.5 (-105 at FanDuel)
In other words, if siding with Miami at -4.5, then the Over 53.5 would be somewhat correlated. However, if you side with Florida State at +4.5, the Under 53.5 should speak loudly to you.
Miami vs Florida State TD pick
Gavin Sawchuk anytime TD (+130 at FanDuel)
Miami’s run defense is elite ranking eighth in the nation allowing just 76.2 yards per game. They’ve also allowed the fewest rush scores in the ACC, with two.
But we’re at a conundrum, as FSU running back Gavin Sawchuk leads Florida State with six TD’s on the season, and he’s hit paydirt at least once in every game.
FSU’s schedule has some merit, as Sawchuk found the endzone against Alabama in the opener, a Top 10 team.
The Seminoles are also the leading rushing team in the ACC, piling up a whopping 336.3 yards per contest – no other team is even at 245 yards.
Great rushing offense vs great rushing defense? I think it meets somewhere in the middle. In this case, I’ll take the plus odds Sawchuk punches one in.
Miami vs Florida State prop pick
Carson Beck Over 1.5 passing TD (-158 at FanDuel)
It’s been both a fresh and great start for Georgia transfer Carson Beck. Miami’s new pivot has thrown for 972 yards and seven TD’s to start the year, against just three interceptions.
He is, however, coming off his worst statistical passing day as a Hurricane, throwing for just 160 yards, no TD’s and an interception in a 26-78 win over Florida.
The Florida State Seminoles do have the third-best pass defense in the ACC, allowing just 184.5 yards per game and five total passing TD’s, but they were just torched by Virginia.
Chandler Morris threw for 229 yards and a pair of scores. Beck should be able to reach that touchdown number in what will be a great bounce back effort.
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Miami vs Florida State odds
Miami vs Florida State game info
| Location: | Doak Campbell Stadium, Tallahassee, FL |
| Date: | Saturday, October 4, 2025 |
| Kickoff: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ABC |
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