Our Iowa State vs. Iowa expert picks are here, and the verdict is unanimous.
See why our college football picks for Week 2 are all in favor of a Hawkeyes runaway win over the Cyclones.
Iowa State vs Iowa expert picks
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 Probability |
|
|---|---|
 Brad Powers: Iowa -13.5 |
54% |
 Rob Paul: Iowa -13.5 |
54% |
 Colby Marchio: Iowa -13.5 |
54% |
 Chris Vasile: Iowa -13.5 |
54% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Brad Powers’ expert pick: Iowa -13.5
Price: 54% at Kalshi
My Week 2 power ratings make Iowa an 18.5-point favorite, the biggest power ratings disparity of the week.
Iowa has lost three of the last four meetings and hasn’t won by more than 10 in the series since 2016. I mention 2016 because that's the last time Kirk Ferentz faced a first-year Iowa State head coach.
Iowa had no trouble getting margin last week vs. a first-year coach at Northern Illinois, as it won by 40 and gave up only 120 yards. While Iowa still hasn't figured out its starting QB, I like the fact that both Hank Brown and Jeremy Hecklinski will play with some urgency.
On the other side, I downgraded Iowa State more than any other power conference team this offseason (-9.5 points). The Cyclones' offense got off to a slow start with only 303 yards vs. FCS SE Missouri State. They'll get far less here.
Rob Paul’s expert pick: Iowa -13.5
Price: 54% at Kalshi
Iowa State has more roster turnover than almost any Power Four program, ranking outside the Top 100 in returning production (45%) and relying heavily on Group of Six and FCS transfers to fill its starting lineup under first-year head coach Jimmy Rogers.
Despite running a two-QB system right now, Iowa has a massive offensive advantage with multiple preseason All-Americans on its offensive line and a Shanahan wide-zone run scheme that averaged 7.6 per carry in Week 1.
The Hawkeyes' defense is ranked 11th by SP+ and shouldn't have much issue slowing Jaylen Raynor (one TD pass vs. 11 turnover-worthy plays in four starts against P4 defenses).
Colby Marchio’s expert pick: Iowa -13.5
Price: 54% at Kalshi
Iowa returns home for another edition of the Cy-Hawk rivalry, and the Hawkeyes have a great opportunity to finally take care of business against Iowa State.
The Cyclones have won three of the last four meetings, but this is a different program after Matt Campbell’s departure for Penn State. Iowa, meanwhile, remains under longtime head coach Kirk Ferentz.
With the rivalry meaning so much to both sides, expect the Hawkeyes to be locked in from the opening whistle. Iowa has already lost the last two meetings by a combined four points, but I’m backing the Hawkeyes to win by two touchdowns.
Chris Vasile’s expert pick: Iowa -13.5
Price: 54% at Kalshi
I know laying this many points in the Cy-Hawk game feels disgusting, but Iowa looks capable of creating margin this year.
The Hawkeyes opened with 507 total yards and 298 rushing yards while holding Northern Illinois to 120 total yards, and seven yards on the ground. Iowa has also won seven straight night games at Kinnick.
Against an Iowa State program breaking in a new coaching staff, I’m laying the points tonight.
How to watch Iowa State vs Iowa
| Location | Kinnick Stadium, Iowa City, IA |
| Date | Saturday, Sept. 12, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | NBC |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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