Each week during the season, I’ll be going over my biggest power-rating adjustments from the week prior and the best spot bets.
Week 1 offered some huge surprises, like Massachusetts shocking Rutgers as a 29.5-point underdog and LSU making its case as a national title contender with a dominant 51-10 win over Clemson.
Week 2 power ratings for the Top 10
| Rank | Team | Last Week | This Week | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ohio State | 94.28 | 94.28 | 0.0 |
| 2 | Notre Dame | 93.40 | 92.40 | -1.0 |
| 3 | Texas | 90.07 | 91.07 | 1.0 |
| 4 | Georgia | 90.94 | 90.94 | 0.0 |
| 5 | Oregon |
92.08
|
90.58 | -1.5 |
| 6 | Indiana | 91.53 | 90.53 | -1.0 |
| 7 | Miami (FL) | 88.15 | 89.15 | 1.0 |
| 8 | LSU | 82.66 | 86.66 | 4.0 |
| 9 | Oklahoma | 85.55 | 85.55 | 0.0 |
| 10 | Alabama | 84.38 | 85.38 | 1.0 |
Brad Powers Week 2 top picks
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Charlotte 
Mississippi 
USF 
Army 
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Brad Powers Week 2 power ratings
Charlotte +46.5 over Mississippi (Sept. 12, 7:45 p.m. ET)
My power ratings make Charlotte a 44.5-point underdog here, and that does not account for the situation spot.
Mississippi could be in one of the worst spots of the entire college football season. The Rebels just played a Sunday night thriller against Louisville that came down to the final play, and now they have one fewer day of rest before their next game.
Oh, by the way, the Rebels have arguably the biggest home game in school history on deck as they host LSU and former head coach Lane Kiffin next Saturday night.
While Charlotte lost outright to FCS The Citadel last week, the market tends to overreact to upset losses to FCS schools more than it does upsets to bad FBS schools.
When you factor in my ratings discrepancy and the spot, Charlotte is a best bet.
I would play this to +45.5.
Army -3.5 over South Florida (Sept. 12, Noon ET)
My power ratings make Army a 5-point favorite here, and Kalshi offers one of the best prices in market.
Last week, my power ratings liked South Florida enough that I made them a best bet. While the Bulls allowed a 21-yard touchdown pass on the final play of the game to get back-doored, they were not the “right” side.
South Florida was out-gained 381-208 by FIU, benefited from a plus-three turnover margin, and was minus-1.4 in yards per play margin. That usually indicates a 10-point loss, not a 10-point win.
Even though it came against an overmatched FCS opponent, Army looks like a contender in the American.
Army has played 1,330 games in its storied history. Last week, the Black Knights rushed for 569 yards, the fourth-most in school history.
I would play this to -4.
Biggest upgrades from last week
📈 Massachusetts up 7 points
UMass dominating Rutgers as a 29.5-point underdog resulted in the biggest upgrade ever in my power ratings off a single performance.
New quarterback Pop Watson III passed for 197 yards and three touchdowns as UMass ended a 16-game losing streak. Incredibly, UMass out-rushed Rutgers 200-30.
📈 LSU up 4 points
One could argue that LSU was by far the most impressive team last weekend.
The Tigers out-gained Clemson by 499 yards. That’s the fifth-most out of 99 games so far, and remember, most of the games have been a combination of Power Conference schools vs. Group of Six and FCS schools.
After one game, it looks like LSU is a legit National Title contender, something I had doubted over the summer.
Biggest downgrades from last week
📉 Rutgers down 7 points
UMass had the biggest upgrade ever in my power ratings. Therefore, it only makes sense that Rutgers had the biggest downgrade.
The Scarlet Knights were dominated at the line of scrimmage by what has been the worst FBS program in CFB in the last decade. On top of that, QB Dylan Lonergan has already been benched after one game.
My ratings currently only favor Rutgers in one game (vs. Howard) this season. That does not bode well for head coach Greg Schiano.
📉 Michigan down 5 points
Obviously, Michigan won controversially as a 4-TD favorite vs. Western Michigan. While one can debate the final second, there’s no debating that Michigan vastly underperformed in all areas.
QB Bryce Underwood had the lowest QBR (36.7) of his career, and Michigan managed just 106 rushing yards. The market seems to have downgraded Michigan even more than I have.
The early look-ahead line had Michigan as a slight favorite vs. Oklahoma, but now the Wolverines are 5.5-point underdogs.
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