Only five weeks of the college football regular season remain, with most programs already playing two-thirds of their schedule, and the Heisman Trophy race is still fairly wide open.
No one has been more wide open than Ohio State's Jeremiah Smith, though, who still leads the Heisman Trophy odds despite a likely season-ending injury to his quarterback, Julian Sayin.
Even if Smith doesn't take home the award due to the injury to Sayin, there's still a strong shot at a wide receiver winning the Heisman for just the sixth time in the history of college football. That's why my Week 9 Heisman Hedge Fund is all in on the second-best pass catcher in the country in Malachi Toney.
Latest Heisman Trophy odds
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Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
With Ohio State on a bye in Week 8 and the Buckeyes planning to be without Julian Sayin for the rest of the year, Jeremiah Smith saw his probability of winning the Heisman Trophy drop for the second straight week.
Before Ohio State's Week 7 win over Indiana, when Sayin suffered a shoulder injury, Smith had a 55% probability at Kalshi of taking home college football's top honor. Following the win over the Hoosiers, his probability dropped to 42%, and now it's down to 39%.
The bye came at a perfect time for Ohio State to figure out its QB situation with backups Luke Fahey and Tavien St. Clair, and if anything, Smith will see an increase in targets in the Buckeyes' passing game to help take pressure off the young QBs. He's already top 10 nationally in targets (73), receptions (52), receiving yards (984), receiving touchdowns (12), and yards per route run (4.78).
If Smith is going to be unseated in this Heisman race, I don't think it will be by one of the quarterbacks, especially with the two QBs with the highest Heisman probability both lacking strong schedules and one clearly not being the best player on his own offense.
This is the Year of the Wide Receiver in college football.
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Week 9 Heisman odds portfolio strategy
| Player, POS | Position |  Probability |
Action/price |
|---|---|---|---|
| ❌ None | Buy | N/A% | N/A |
| 📉 Overpriced, overrated QBs | Sell | N/A% | N/A |
 Malachi Toney, WR |
Hold | 17% | Yes (current price: 19¢/purchase price: 7¢) |
 Charlie Becker, WR |
Penny stock | 1% | Yes (1¢) |
Buy: None
At this point in the season, my Heisman portfolio has enough legitimate contenders (primarily Smith, Malachi Toney, and Jesse Legree) that there aren't any players beyond long-shot penny stock buys that I'm even considering adding.
The Heisman race could see a player not on the radar jump up the board over the next month, but I don't see much value in buying any of the top contenders that I didn't already get cheaper at their current price.
The top quarterbacks don't move me much in terms of the Heisman race, with Miami's Darian Mensah, Notre Dame's CJ Carr, Oklahoma State's Drew Mestemaker, Georgia's Gunner Stockton, and Ole Miss' Trinidad Chambliss being the only passers with a probability of 2% or higher.
Mensah isn't the best player on his team; Carr lost to Notre Dame's only high-end opponent so far (BYU); Mestemaker is the favorite to go No. 1 by the 2027 NFL Draft odds, but the Pokes aren't in the College Football Playoff race; Stockton won't have the numbers; and Chambliss already has two losses.
The Heisman Trophy ceremony is slated for Saturday, Dec. 12, and if I'm guessing the four finalists, I'd go with Smith, Toney, Legree, and the QB of the winning team from Miami and Notre Dame's matchup on Nov. 7.
Sell: Overpriced, overrated QBs
Darian Mensah, Miami
- Kalshi probability: 21%
- 2026 stats: 2,151 passing yards, 24 total TDs, 1 INT
- Key metric: 119th nationally in ADOT (7.8)
- Week 9 opponent: at North Carolina
On paper, everything about Mensah screams Heisman finalist, and maybe even winner. He leads the country in QBR (89.7), adjusted completion percentage (86.2%), and he has the Hurricanes' offense ranked No. 1 in net adjusted EPA per play and No. 3 in offensive success rate (51.9%).
Watch Miami play, though, and it's clear who the best player on the team is, and it's not Mensah. The biggest knock on him as a Heisman contender is that Toney is the significantly better player, and the Heisman is for honoring the most outstanding player in the sport.
Take Miami's Week 8 win over Pitt, for example: Mensah threw for 387 yards and four TDs with an 88.9% adjusted completion percentage. He had the best numbers in the country last week, but the best player on the Canes juiced those numbers.
Anyone who watched that game saw that Toney was the far more impressive player. He broke Miami's single-game receptions record by catching 16 of 17 targets for 194 yards and two touchdowns, with 128 of those yards coming after the catch. He took two screens to the house to make Mensah's life easier.
How can a Heisman voter go with Mensah for Heisman when he's not the best player on his team? And if Miami loses to Notre Dame, I don't think Mensah will have any chance at the Heisman given Miami's weak schedule. Sell now, or if you like Miami to beat Notre Dame, sell Nov. 8.
CJ Carr, Notre Dame
- Kalshi probability: 5%
- 2026 stats: 1,639 passing yards, 19 total TDs, 1 INT
- Key metric: 55th nationally in adjusted completion percentage (74.6%)
- Week 9 opponent: vs. Navy
Why has Carr seen an uptick in his Heisman probability? The last time Notre Dame played, the Fighting Irish were upset by a BYU team that was just upset by unranked UCF.
Carr had one of the worst performances of his career in the loss to BYU (66.4 QBR, 60.9% adjusted completion percentage, 5.3 YPA), and Notre Dame's schedule doesn't help his case as a Heisman contender.
Wisconsin, BYU, Miami, and SMU are the higher-quality teams on the Fighting Irish's schedule, and arguably Carr's two worst games this season came against the Badgers and Cougars.
Not only will he need to redeem himself in a big way against Miami to have any chance at sniffing the Heisman, but he'll need to win the game. If Notre Dame loses to the Hurricanes, the Fighting Irish might not even make the College Football Playoff.
Carr has been propped up as a potential top pick in the 2027 NFL Draft and Heisman contender; in reality, he's neither.
Hold: Malachi Toney, WR, Miami
- Kalshi probability: 17%
- 2026 stats: 66 receptions, 952 receiving yards, 11 TDs
- Key metric: Second nationally in yards per route run (4.62)
- Week 9 opponent: at North Carolina
The market is adjusting to the Mensah-Toney conundrum, with Mensah seeing his probability to win the Heisman stagnate while Toney climbs the board. After his record-breaking Week 8 performance against Pitt, Toney's probability jumped up 11% while Mensah's didn't budge, despite having the third-highest QBR of the week.
The best players in college football are Smith and Toney, and with Smith down Sayin, there's no reason to sell Toney's Heisman contract now for a profit. He has a QB that wants to feed him, and Shannon Dawson's offense is the most efficient in the country.
Toney stacks up with Smith through the first eight weeks of the season and leads the country in receptions that have ended in either a first down or touchdown (45). He's only had one game with fewer than eight targets this season, and it came against an FCS team (Florida A&M) in a 77-7 win.
Miami's five remaining games are against North Carolina, Notre Dame, Duke, Virginia Tech, and Boston College. The Hurricanes will be double-digit favorites in four of those five games, with Notre Dame being the exception.
But unlike Mensah, a loss to the Fighting Irish won't be detrimental to Toney's Heisman chances, and if he produces against them in a loss, he'll jump his QB on the board.
Penny Stock: Charlie Becker, WR, Indiana
- Kalshi probability: 1%
- 2026 stats: 42 receptions, 726 receiving yards, 8 TDs
- Key metric: 10th nationally in receptions for 1st downs or TDs (33)
- Week 9 opponent: vs. Minnesota
It's the year of the wide receiver in college football, and if there's any player with a less than 2% probability who could move up the Heisman board (to then flip the contract for a profit), it's Charlie Becker.
He's Indiana's best player, and even with the Hoosiers taking a step back this season after winning the national title, Becker has managed to take his game up a notch.
His best game of the season came against an Ohio State defense ranked No. 1 by SP+, and he's been on a tear since the middle of last season when injuries opened the door for him to have a bigger role.
Since Nov. 8 of last season, Becker has 69 receptions for 1,248 receiving yards and 11 TDs with zero drops over his last 15 games (five of those games came against teams ranked in the top 10).
If Indiana wins out and Becker keeps up his pace, the projected top 10 pick will see his Heisman probability rise.
My Heisman portfolio tracker
I'll continue to bang the table for this being the year of the wide receiver. Mensah and Carr haven't moved the needle enough at this point to feel confident in either of them being a Heisman winner over the likes of Smith and Toney.
The loser of Miami vs. Notre Dame will almost certainly have no shot at winning the Heisman given how few high-profile games the Hurricanes and Fighting Irish play this season. So with five weeks left in the regular season, I'm focused on the trio of superstar receivers in my portfolio.
They're the three most dominant players in college football this season. Smith is on pace for 89 receptions, 1,686 receiving yards, and 21 touchdowns; Toney is on pace for 113 receptions, 1,632 receiving yards, and 19 touchdowns; and Legree is on pace for 79 receptions, 1,782 receiving yards, and 24 touchdowns.
A lot can change, but I think all three of them will be finalists, alongside the winner of Mensah vs. Carr.
| Player | Week added | Position | Entry price/current price |
|---|---|---|---|
 Jeremiah Smith, WR |
Week 0 | Buy (Yes) | 6¢/39¢ |
 Keelon Russell, QB |
Week 0 | Buy (Yes) | 6¢/1¢ |
 Dante Moore, QB |
Week 0 | Buy (Yes) | 6¢/1¢ |
| Josh Hoover, QB |
Week 1 | Buy (Yes) | 5¢/1¢ |
| Malachi Toney, WR |
Week 2 | Buy (Yes) | 7¢/19¢ |
 Jadan Baugh, RB |
Week 4 | Buy (Yes) | 3¢/1¢ |
 Devon Dampier, QB |
Week 6 | Buy (Yes) | 1¢/1¢ |
 Jesse Legree, WR |
Week 7 | Buy (Yes) | 3¢/3¢ |
 CJ Carr, QB |
Week 0 | Sell (No) | 89¢/97¢ |
 Sam Leavitt, QB |
Week 0 | Sell (No) | 97¢/99¢ |
 LaNorris Sellers, QB |
Week 1 | Sell (No) | 98¢/99¢ |
 Jayden Maiava, QB |
Week 2 | Sell (No) | 96¢/99¢ |
 Arch Manning, QB |
Week 3 | Sell (No) | 92¢/99¢ |
| Darian Mensah, QB |
Week 4 | Sell (No) | 83¢/78¢ |
| Josh Hoover, QB |
Week 5 | Sell (No) | 97¢/99¢ |
 Gunner Stockton, QB |
Week 6 | Sell (No) | 96¢/99¢ |
 Trinidad Chambliss, QB |
Week 7 | Sell (No) | 95¢/98¢ |
 Bear Bachmeier, QB |
Week 8 | Sell (No) | 97¢/97¢ |
 Drew Mestemaker, QB |
Week 0 | Penny stock (Yes) | 2¢/2¢ |
 Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele, QB |
Week 0 | Penny stock (Yes) | 2¢/1¢ |
 Will Hammond, QB |
Week 1 | Penny stock (Yes) | 2¢/1¢ |
 Kamario Taylor, QB |
Week 2 | Penny stock (Yes) | 2¢/1¢ |
 Austin Simmons, QB |
Week 3 | Penny stock (Yes) | 1¢/1¢ |
 Lincoln Kienholz, QB |
Week 4 | Penny stock (Yes) | 1¢/1¢ |
| Colin Simmons, EDGE |
Week 5 | Penny stock (Yes) | 1¢/1¢ |
| Julian Sayin, QB |
Week 6 | Penny stock (Yes) | 1¢/1¢ |
 Conner Weigman, QB |
Week 8 | Penny stock (Yes) | 1¢/1¢ |
| Charlie Becker, WR |
Week 9 | Penny stock (Yes) | 1¢/1¢ |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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