My Jacksonville State vs. New Mexico State predictions are calling for Caden Creel and the Gamecocks' offense to overwhelm the Aggies as 3.5-point favorites tonight.
Jacksonville State heads to Aggie Memorial Stadium in Las Cruces, N.M., in fine form as winners of four straight, taking on New Mexico State at 8 p.m. ET (ESPN2).
Points won't be at a premium, as my college football picks for Wednesday, Oct. 28 explain.
TOP PICK
Who will win Jacksonville State vs New Mexico State tonight: Jacksonville State -3.5
Jacksonville State's sights are set on a third straight Conference USA Championship appearance, with the Gamecocks tearing through CUSA play this season. Coming off a bye and riding a four-game winning streak, I like Charles Kelly's program to cover up to -5.5 against New Mexico State.
The Aggies have been more competitive this season thanks to their defense, but the school's numbers are partially inflated. New Mexico State's last three opponents are three of the bottom four teams in the CUSA in points per game, none averaging more than 21.3 points.
This Jacksonville State offense is one of the best in the Group of Six. Jax State ranks among the top 50 nationally in available yards percentage (51.5%), and it's the only team in the conference averaging over 230 passing yards and 150 rushing yards.
COVERS INTEL: Caden Creel is one of the leading dual-threat quarterbacks in college football, and he's led the Gamecocks to a top-30 ranking nationally in offensive success rate (48.5%).
Jacksonville State vs New Mexico State Over/Under pick: Over 49.5
Jacksonville State is among the top Over teams in the Group of Six. The Gamecocks are 5-2 to the Over this season and have hit it in five of their last six games. But with New Mexico State's offensive inconsistencies, I would only play this at 49.5 or better.
Both programs boast an all-conference-level playmaker to lean on every week. Jax State wide receiver Deondre Johnson creates one of the most significant mismatches in the conference at 6-foot-8. He's been helping the Gamecocks rank 28th in the country in EPA per pass while averaging the 10th-most yards per reception in college football (19.6).
As for the Aggies, running back James Jones is the best in the CUSA. He leads the conference in rushing yards (777), and New Mexico State is ranked in the top 25 nationally in offensive explosiveness (1.317).
Jacksonville State vs New Mexico State prop: Jacksonville State TT Over 26.5
Jacksonville State has scored 27+ points in five of its last six games, thanks in large part to Creel. With him behind center, I like Jax State to go Over 26.5 points or better against an overrated New Mexico State defense.
Creel is the only quarterback in all of college football with 1,600+ passing yards and 500+ rushing yards this season. During Jax State's win streak, he's accounted for eight touchdowns and has the Gamecocks averaging exactly 27 points per game.
The Gamecocks' well-balanced attack will be a problem for a New Mexico State team that has played just one G6 offense ranked higher than 112th by SP+.
Jacksonville State vs New Mexico State combo
The only quality G6 offense that New Mexico State has faced this season was New Mexico's unit in the Rio Grande Rivalry. The Lobos won that game 42-18, covering as an 11.5-point favorite.
Jacksonville State's offense, which ranks 79th by SP+, is by far the best one the Aggies have seen since that loss. With Creel's dual-threat ability and Johnson's size set to create a mismatch, Jax State should come out hot offensively early.
The Gamecocks will be well-rested, too, after not playing since Oct. 13.
Jacksonville State vs New Mexico State combo
- Jacksonville State -3.5
- Over 49.5
- Jacksonville State first half -1.5
Jacksonville State vs New Mexico State market trends
Here's how trusted traders at Kalshi are dealing on today’s matchup. Follow the smart money via the widget below to help inform your Jacksonville State vs. New Mexico State prediction.
- Top picks: 18-13, +2.35 units
- Combos: 8-23, +0.72 units
Jacksonville State vs New Mexico State odds tonight
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Spread: Jacksonville State -3.5 | New Mexico State +3.5
- Over/Under: Over 49.5 (51%) | Under 49.5 (48%)
- Moneyline: Jacksonville State 60% | New Mexico State 41%
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Jacksonville State vs New Mexico State weather
Weather isn't expected to affect the game Wednesday night in Las Cruces.
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Jacksonville State vs New Mexico State trend to know
Jacksonville State is 5-1-1 ATS in its last seven games as a favorite. Find more college football betting trends for Jacksonville State vs. New Mexico State.
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How to watch Jacksonville State vs New Mexico State tonight
| Location | Aggie Memorial Stadium, Las Cruces, N.M. |
| Date | Wednesday, Oct. 28, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 8 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN2 |
Jacksonville State vs New Mexico State latest injuries
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