Despite last week's upset-heavy Saturday, the top of the Heisman Trophy odds didn't change much as the two biggest favorites, Jeremiah Smith and Darian Mensah, escaped unscathed.
However, while Smith remains the favorite, his Heisman probability has dropped 13 percentage points following quarterback Julian Sayin’s potentially season-ending injury.
Even with Smith's precarious situation, I'm doubling down on the best player in college football with my Heisman Hedge Fund heading into Week 8.
Latest Heisman Trophy odds
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Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
Heading into Week 8, Ohio State's Jeremiah Smith remains atop the Heisman Trophy odds, but his lead took a serious hit after Julian Sayin exited the Buckeyes' win over Indiana with a shoulder injury that could keep him out the rest of the season.
Sayin is one of the most efficient QBs in the country and ranks top 10 nationally in QBR (84.5), passing yards (2,007), and passing touchdowns (19). Without him, there are serious questions as to whether Smith will produce at the same level that he did over the first half of the season; as such, his probability of winning the Heisman fell from 55% to 42%.
Benefiting from that dip are my midseason first-team and second-team All-American QBs, Darian Mensah and Trinidad Chambliss.
Mensah leads the country in QBR (89.4) and moved from a 10% probability to a 21% probability after Miami got some help from the refs in overtime to beat Florida State. Meanwhile, Chambliss jumped from 6% to 13% after he helped Ole Miss beat its third-ranked opponent in six games.
But while quarterbacks have historically dominated the Heisman, it might be the year of the wide receiver, with three of the five biggest favorites being pass catchers (Smith, Miami's Malachi Toney, and Oregon State's Jesse Legree).
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Week 8 Heisman odds portfolio strategy
| Player, POS | Position |  Probability |
Action/price |
|---|---|---|---|
| ❌ None | Buy | N/A% | N/A |
 Bear Bachmeier, QB |
Sell | 3% | No (97¢) |
 Jeremiah Smith, WR |
Hold | 42% | Yes (current price: 42¢/purchase price: 6¢) |
 Conner Weigman, QB |
Penny stock | 1% | Yes (1¢) |
Buy: None
Heading into Week 8, there are no players I'm dying to add to my Heisman portfolio. We're midway through the season, and only eight players have a probability above 1% of winning the Heisman, half of whom I already have in my portfolio.
With November just around the corner, unless a quarterback comes out of nowhere and goes scorched earth on the rest of the country, it's unrealistic to think there's a QB priced at 1¢ (or not even on the board) who will move the needle that much.
Mensah is the only QB who ranks in the top 10 nationally in QBR and TD passes and has yet to lose a game... and I still think it's hard to make a case for him to win when he's not even the best player on his own team (Toney). Taking it a step further, there are seven other QBs who rank in the top 10 nationally in QBR and TD passes and have just one loss.
Each is a tough sell: Sayin (injured), Josh Hoover (clear step down at Indiana from last year's Heisman winner), CJ Carr (lost his most important game so far), Jayden Maiava (lost his most important game so far), Gunner Stockton (lost his most important game so far), Gio Lopez (such a long shot he's not even on the board), and Conner Weigman (more on him later).
Right now, it's a wait-and-see game, especially after one of the craziest Saturdays in college football history.
Sell: Bear Bachmeier, QB, BYU
- Kalshi probability: 3%
- 2026 stats: 1,257 passing yards, 15 total TDs, 2 INTs
- Key metric: 75th nationally in big-time throw rate (3.8%)
- Week 8 opponent: at UCF
Bear Bachmeier will go down in BYU history as a legend, with stories about him that sound like folklore.
But will he follow in Ty Detmer's footsteps and bring a Heisman to Provo? I'm doubtful, and it's certainly not happening this season.
The reason I'm selling Bachmeier now is that I don't think he'll be priced this high again this season. He just beat Notre Dame with the best performance of his career (92.1 QBR, four total TDs) and has the Cougars ranked No. 2 in the latest AP Top 25.
Bachmeier's counting stats are also still a far cry from what you'd expect from a Heisman winner. Through six games, he ranks 58th nationally in TD passes (9), 60th in adjusted completion percentage (74.1%), and 75th in big-time throw rate (3.8%). He's also faced just two opponents that are currently above .500.
Those aren't Heisman-quality numbers, and his schedule doesn't help his case. When it's all said and done, there's a chance BYU will have played just three teams (Arizona, Notre Dame, and Utah) that finish with records better than 6-6.
Hold: Jeremiah Smith, WR, Ohio State
- Kalshi probability: 42%
- 2026 stats: 52 receptions, 984 receiving yards, 12 TDs
- Key metric: Leads the country in yards per route run (4.78)
- Week 8 opponent: Bye
There's a strong argument to be made that now is the time to sell Smith, especially if you added his contract to your portfolio when he was priced below 10¢. Flipping him ahead of Week 8, with Sayin likely out for the rest of the regular season, is an easy way to lock in a profit without having to sweat the Buckeyes' backup QB situation.
Even with that QB uncertainty, though, Smith should be lifting the Heisman Trophy in December. You could even argue he's a stronger Heisman candidate if he continues producing after losing his starting QB.
If not for Sayin's injury against Indiana, Smith would likely have around a 60% probability of winning the Heisman heading into Week 8. He scored the game-deciding touchdown against the Hoosiers on a play that perfectly showcased his dominance.
Smith is the best player in the sport and leads the Power Four in receptions, receiving yards, receiving touchdowns, and yards per route run. Of his 52 receptions, 44 (84.6%) have gone for a first down or a touchdown. Now he has a bye week to get in sync with QBs Luke Fahey and Tavien St. Clair.
If you haven't bought stock in Smith to this point, it's even worth considering buying the dip. The numbers and the narrative will be there.
Penny Stock: Conner Weigman, QB, Houston
- Kalshi probability: 1%
- 2026 stats: 1,771 passing yards, 26 total TDs, 2 INTs
- Key metric: Fourth nationally in QBR (87.7)
- Week 8 opponent: at Utah
It might sound insane to say Weigman should be in the Heisman conversation at midseason, but he has the numbers, and if Houston upsets Utah this Saturday, he's going to see his probability jump.
Do I think Weigman will win the Heisman? Of course not, but if he beats Utah (Houston has never lost to the Utes), he's an easy sell candidate for a profit down the line. And while it all hinges on a win Saturday, Weigman should be priced higher than he is right now due to his sheer productivity.
He leads the Power Four in TD passes (20) and total TDs (26), ranks top five in QBR, and is one of only five QBs in the country with 1,700+ passing yards and 225+ rushing yards. Weigman has also helped turn the Cougars into an offensive juggernaut; they lead the country in offensive success rate (54.6%) and net adjusted EPA per play.
Buy him now, so if Houston beats Utah with College GameDay in town, you can sell him later. (If Utah wins, I already have Devon Dampier in my portfolio, so there will be a chance to flip him for a profit instead.)
My Heisman portfolio tracker
At the halfway point of the season, my Heisman ballot would have Smith up top, so even with Sayin's injury, I like the shape of my portfolio.
But it's not just because of Smith.
This is the year of the wide receiver, and having Toney (arguably the second-best player in the country) and Legree (the only player in college football with over 1,000 receiving yards), who I think would both be top-five candidates on any Heisman ballot right now, really strengthens my portfolio.
Selling Mensah could come back to bite me, but the tape isn't nearly as impressive as his numbers, and Toney is the engine that makes the Hurricanes' offense go, so I'm not too worried.
And unless Chambliss is capable of wearing the Superman cape every week, this Heisman race comes down to Smith, Toney, and Legree.
| Player | Week added | Position | Entry price/current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremiah Smith, WR |
Week 0 | Buy (Yes) | 6¢/43¢ |
 Keelon Russell, QB |
Week 0 | Buy (Yes) | 6¢/1¢ |
 Dante Moore, QB |
Week 0 | Buy (Yes) | 6¢/1¢ |
 Josh Hoover, QB |
Week 1 | Buy (Yes) | 5¢/1¢ |
 Malachi Toney, WR |
Week 2 | Buy (Yes) | 7¢/7¢ |
 Jadan Baugh, RB |
Week 4 | Buy (Yes) | 3¢/1¢ |
 Devon Dampier, QB |
Week 6 | Buy (Yes) | 1¢/1¢ |
 Jesse Legree, WR |
Week 7 | Buy (Yes) | 3¢/4¢ |
 CJ Carr, QB |
Week 0 | Sell (No) | 89¢/97¢ |
 Sam Leavitt, QB |
Week 0 | Sell (No) | 97¢/99¢ |
 LaNorris Sellers, QB |
Week 1 | Sell (No) | 98¢/99¢ |
 Jayden Maiava, QB |
Week 2 | Sell (No) | 96¢/99¢ |
 Arch Manning, QB |
Week 3 | Sell (No) | 92¢/99¢ |
| Darian Mensah, QB |
Week 4 | Sell (No) | 83¢/78¢ |
| Josh Hoover, QB |
Week 5 | Sell (No) | 97¢/99¢ |
 Gunner Stockton, QB |
Week 6 | Sell (No) | 96¢/99¢ |
 Trinidad Chambliss, QB |
Week 7 | Sell (No) | 95¢/89¢ |
| Bear Bachmeier, QB |
Week 8 | Sell (No) | 97¢/97¢ |
 Drew Mestemaker, QB |
Week 0 | Penny stock (Yes) | 2¢/2¢ |
 Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele, QB |
Week 0 | Penny stock (Yes) | 2¢/1¢ |
 Will Hammond, QB |
Week 1 | Penny stock (Yes) | 2¢/1¢ |
 Kamario Taylor, QB |
Week 2 | Penny stock (Yes) | 2¢/1¢ |
 Austin Simmons, QB |
Week 3 | Penny stock (Yes) | 1¢/1¢ |
 Lincoln Kienholz, QB |
Week 4 | Penny stock (Yes) | 1¢/1¢ |
| Colin Simmons, EDGE |
Week 5 | Penny stock (Yes) | 1¢/1¢ |
| Julian Sayin, QB |
Week 6 | Penny stock (Yes) | 1¢/1¢ |
| Conner Weigman, QB |
Week 8 | Penny stock (Yes) | 1¢/1¢ |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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